Can Poisson help me with betting on the Jupiler Pro League?

For once I did my homework. At least that’s my assumption.

Lately I have been playing around with the Poisson distribution model to predict the 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and correct score of the matches in the Jupiler Pro League.

I have been trying out 4 different Poisson models.

-          Poisson distribution based on the goals averages of the home and away teams since 1998 in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League.

-          Poisson distribution based on the goal averages of the home and away teams of the 2016/2017 season.

-          Poisson distribution based on the goal averages on the H2H matches since 1998 of the home and away team.

-          Poisson distribution based on the goal averages on the matches between the home and away team (so all H2H matches) since 1998.

I do know that Poisson is not the best prediction method based on statistics and that it would benefit from a Dixon Coles fit. But still working out how the Dixon/Coles adjustment works.

Without this fix, these would have been the result for the 2016/2017 season in Belgium.

For all 4 of the distribution I did calculate the prediction based on the % and the most probable score.

 

The first thing that I noticed was that there is a huge difference between the prediction of draws based on the % and most probable score.

The most probable score did predict between 53 and 154 draws, the % did only predict max 5 draws during the season. Still both Poissin model based on the H2H did deliver a ROI of above 28%.

I also do know that these models are based on the average goals at the end of the season, which will not happen in real life.

But we do have the make the assumption that the model gets better near the end of the season because then the goal averages are getting close to the ones at the end of the season.

After this I also did some investigation based on the value of the bets.

Only placing a bet if the odds were right.

The problem I did had here that I did had to use the odds based on the % in combination with the prediction of the most probable score. Which is not exact. But we do have to start somewhere.

This gives me the following results.

 

As you can see, I can minimize my number of bets using the value betting, while not really affecting my total profit.

Based on these schemes I did decide to try this out for the Play-off of the Belgian Jupiler Pro League.

On each match there are 4 possible bets. 1X2, correct score, Over/Under 2.5 and BTTS. The 1X2 and correct score are placed with taking value betting into consideration. I still have no fix for the draws problem based on the Poisson % distribution, and the profit and ROI are almost identical.

The BTTS and O/U bets are only placed when the odds are above the Poisson distribution.

After running my first test for the upcoming matches I’m doubting if the Poisson model can be used during the Belgian Jupiler Pro League playoffs. This due to the fact that the strength of the teams are almost equal.

Still I will give it a try an din the mean time making my model better.

I also include a Yankee bet on 4 correct scores, a accumulator of 4 on 1X2, BTTS and O/U.

For the first round this results in 21 bets with a total ante of 24,1 points. Some matches are not included due to a lack of H2H games or goal averages in the 16/17 season. This is because 3 teams from the second division are also included in the Play-off 2.

To be complete you can find a list of the bets I’m going to place for the next round.

Good luck,

Dremeber

Closure, Hibernation and a fresh start

This blog goes way back.The first post was made somewhere in de middle of Juni in 2006.
The blog also went many times into hibernation.
I switched from posting tips to only articles, going back to tipping, posting my stats and several more nonsens.

Like I said many time before, I'm being fed up with being a loosing sports better. So drastic measure have to be taken. Therefor I decided to create a new blog, in which I will tell my story from transforming into a long term winning sports better.
I could write this story on this blog but it doesn't feel appropriate. All my losses are made during the lifetime of this blog!

The new blog will is Reclaiming my losses.

Hope to see you on my new blog!

Cheers,
Dremeber

Happy New Year

The good thing about a new year is that you can take a fresh start! We all know that this is also possible in the middle of the year, but only very few people do this.

My plan for this year is simple. I do want to make a profit, doesn’t matter how much, as long as it is a profit it is okay for me.

So this year it is serious. While fun stands above profit, profit will be my goal.

This year I will also try to learn from my mistakes in the past, I will try to expand my betting knowledge, I will stick to sports I know, understand and have knowledge about.

As you can see on the top of my blog, I did create pages. These pages represents the sports and betting types I will focus on.

Each sport and betting type will have it’s own bankroll and status updates.

In short my betting plans for 2016 consists of:

-          Both team to score: No single bets here. I will start with combos of 3 matches and an ante of €1. Depending on the results the ante of the number of matches on the ticket will increase. Starting bankroll is €15.

-          Over 2.5 bets: Similar to the BTTS. Also the bankroll will start at €15.

-          Anytime goalscorer: again similar with BTTS and O 2.5. And again a starting bankroll of €15.

-          Dremebers 1K challenge: The rules of this challenge can be read in the previous post. The idea is to turn a starting bet of €2 into €1k. In contrast to many of these challenges this includes a banking method. There is no restrictions on the type of sport, but will be mainly Football, Tennis and Basketball. Starting bankroll is €20.

-          Supertoto: Offered by Unibet it is a toto pool, where you are not playing against the bookie but against other players. Depending on the number of matches correct you can get a share of the price pool. I will allow myself 10 attempts of max €3.2, resulting in a starting bankroll of €32.

-          Golf Bets: Here I will place my bets on the European and PGA tour. Probably I will bet on the first round leader (if my bookies are offering this) of each tournament and 3 each way bets. Still doubting how I will fill this in. But I will keep you posted. The starting bankroll is €50. Evenly divided among the European and PGA tour.

So in total my starting bankroll is €147. I will not deposit this in one deposit. I will start with half of it so €75.

If a bankroll dries out, that part of my betting will probably be cancelled. This means that I’m obviously loosing money there, so there is no point in continuing trying to recover my losses.

Also still doubting how many bookies I will use. For the moment I will keep it at 1.

To prove to myself that it is serious this time, I did purchase a book. I will start with reading “The smart money”.

Have a good year,

Dremeber

Dremeber's 1K challenge

I have seen many sports betting challenges on the Internet in the trend of turning amount x into 1 or 2k with a 1 bet a time or day!

My 1K challenge is based on this principle only with a banking rule addition.

Most of these challenges start with one bet and they keep on betting with the profit and original stake from the previous bet, until they ran into a loosing bet. After which they start all over again. So each bet they are risking it all. I do understand that this is maybe the fastest road to the ultimate goal, but I'm not willing to go all-in at every bet.

This is why I did introduce some kind of banking hopefully preventing me from going bankrupt.

2 kinds of banking principles could be used for this challenge.

One where you do bank some money after a number of winning bets and the other were you do bank a % of the profit after each winning bet. I do prefer the other.

Why? If you are having a bad streak your bankroll dry’s up incredibly fast and maybe you will never reach your banking point.

With banking some of the profit, each winning bet will give you some money back as return on investment; it can be compared with the pay-out of dividends on the stock exchanges.

While this does not guarantee that your initial investment will be recovered, it will slowly rebuild/increase your bankroll.

During my trial of the challenge I did manage to place 15 winning bets in a row, without banking I would have lost it all, with the banking principle I did loose my initial stake of €2 but I was capable of increasing my bankroll with 50%.

Due to the nature of the betting scheme I do place more bets that I normally do, but this also has a positive thing behind it. Unibet does show their appreciation once in a while by giving me a free bet of around €3.

So my idea is to bank a certain % of the profit made on the bet, this % increases when the ante of bet increases. I did set up following banking table. There is no mathematics behind the %s but is just something I came up with.

 Ante                  Banking

1-10                    20%

10-20                  25%

20-30                  30%

30-50                  35%

50-75                  40%

75-100                45%

> 100                  50 %

So suppose my first bet is a winning one with an ante of €2 and 1.2 odds. This would mean that the ante of my next bet is €2.32

The profit was €0.40, and 20% of this is €0,08,

As you can see in the beginning the banking is minimal.

When a bet is for instance €15 and the odds are 1,3 then I would be able to bank €1,13.

My challenge has only 4 strict rules.

Rule 1: Always at max 1 running bet.

Rule 2: After a loosing bet, the new ante for the next bet will be the maximum of €2 of 10% of the current bankroll.

Rule 3: Banking rules should be followed strictly. The banking rules will be explained below.

Rule 4: When the current betting streak reaches 1K, I will withdraw €500.

Starting bankroll is €33,05.

The preferred bookmaker is Unibet.

Based on my starting bankroll and my banking principle I do have at least 13 attempts to reach the 1K mark.

Let's see if I can do the impossible!

Cheers,

Dremeber