Full Cover Betting

My official 2017-2018 betting season starts at the first of September.

I’m still doubting if I will continue to blog about sports betting on this blog, create a new blog or just stop completely with blogging. We will see which direction life brings me. The problem about blogging that it does cost a lot of time.

If I do continue blogging I do need to bring this blog to a higher level and most of all improve my writing skills!!

Like told in the beginning my betting season starts on the first of September. It is not that I’m not betting now, but more playing around in a sandbox. Trying out some new betting strategies and trying to set up a betting plan for the new season.

Why do I start the first of September. By starting then, I hope to have some more insight in the competitions, balancing the teams and most of all cause the transfer market is closed.

The betting bank for the new season will be €150. Like each year the aim to make a profit J, which is harder than it looks. For sure cause I don’t play single bets.

Before we can look forward, we have to look back and try to figure out where it did go wrong last season. Unfortunately and luckily there are several reasons.

-          Too much compulsive bets;
-          Some bets with a higher stake than should be allowed according to the betting bank;
-          Shots in the dark;
-          Betting with emotions;
-          Too many outstanding bets;
-          Trying to chase lost bets;
-          Forgetting that sports betting is a marathon and not a sprint.

So, we do know where it went wrong. The question is how can we avoid such mistakes for the new betting season.

Most of the flaws can be corrected by forcing myself to restrict the number of bets and ante during weekdays and weekends and most important of all sticking to these restrictions.

Easy peasy, isn’t?

Cheers,

Dremeber

Tips and Picks: Round 7 Play-off Jupiler Pro League

4 more rounds to play before the season in Belgium ends.
At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by the 1X2 bets. Don't know what the problem is there. I decided to continue to play them, to have a complete historical record for next years play-offs.

I would be nice to score another Acca. I did hope on 3 acca's, so one to go.
As always all my bets are placed at:

My 1X2 tips and bets for this round:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP7	Charleroi	Club Brugge	1X2	1	2	2	2	G	2	1
SP7	Mechelen	Waasland-Beveren	1X2	1	1,5	1			0	-1
SP7	Kortrijk	Roeselare	1X2	1	1,76	1			0	-1
SP7	Lokeren	Mouscron	1X2	1	1,85	1			0	-1
SP7	St Truiden	Standard	1X2	1	3,5	X			0	-1
SP7	Oostende	Gent	1X2	1	3,45	X			0	-1
SP7	Anderlecht	Waregem	1X2	1	1,28	1			0	-1
SP7	Genk	Eupen	1X2	1	1,28	1			0	-1

The Over/Under market stand on a small profit for the moment, let's continue this momentum.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	P/L
SP7	Mechelen	Waasland-Beveren	O/U	1	2,08	U	-1
SP7	Kortrijk	Roeselare	O/U	1	1,48	O	-1
SP7	Lierse	Union	O/U	1	1,94	O	-1
SP7	Lokeren	Mouscron	O/U	1	2,25	U	-1
SP7	St Truiden	Standard	O/U	1	1,83	O	-1
SP7	Anderlecht	Waregem	O/U	1	2,75	U	-1
SP7	Genk	Eupen	O/U	1	1,38	O	-1

The BTTS market is running on the other hand a little bit behind. These bets should bring green figures to this market:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	P/L
SP7	Charleroi	Club Brugge	BTTS	1	2,02	N	-1
SP7	Mechelen	Waasland-Beveren	BTTS	1	1,88	N	-1
SP7	Lierse	Union	BTTS	1	2,02	N	-1
SP7	Lokeren	Mouscron	BTTS	1	2,25	N	-1
SP7	Oostende	Gent	BTTS	1	2,05	N	-1
SP7	Genk	Eupen	BTTS	1	2,12	N	-1

My bets market at the moment, the correct score bets. At the moment delivering a profit of 4 units, good for a ROI of 8,7%.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	P/L
SP7	Charleroi	Club Brugge	CS	1	9	0-0	-1
SP7	Mechelen	Waasland-Beveren	CS	1	7,5	1-0	-1
SP7	Kortrijk	Roeselare	CS	1	8,5	1-1	-1
SP7	Lokeren	Mouscron	CS	1	9,5	1-0	-1
SP7	St Truiden	Standard	CS	1	7	1-1	-1
SP7	Oostende	Gent	CS	1	10	1-0	-1
SP7	Anderlecht	Waregem	CS	1	8	2-0	-1
SP7	Genk	Eupen	CS	1	9	2-0	-1
SP7	Lierse	Union	CS	1	11,5	0-1	-1

Last but not least my Acca's. After a good start, this betting market is also getting behind. One more correct will probably make it a winning market for the complete play-offs.

My 1X2 acca looks like this:

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
4 1X2	Genk	Eupen	1	1,28
	Charleroi	Club Brugge	2	2
	Kortrijk	Roeselare	1	1,74
	Mechelen	Waasland	1	1,5
			Total	6,68

My BTTS Acca is the following:

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
4 BTTS	St Truiden	Standard	J	1,64
	Mechelen	Waasland	N	1,88
	Lokeren	Mouscron	N	2,25
	Genk	Eupen	N	2,12
			Total	14,71

The O/U acca:

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
4 O/U	Lierse	Union	O	1,94
	Kortrijk	Roeselare	O	1,48
	Charleroi	Club Brugge	U	1,84
	St Truiden	Standard	O	1,83
			Total	9,67

Last but not least the Correct score Yankee, with a potential profit of 715 units :).

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
CS	Genk	Eupen	2-0	9
	St Truiden	Standard	1-1	7
	Anderlecht	Waregem	2-0	8
	Charleroi	Club Brugge	0-0	9
			Total	716,6

The test run of the Poisson model for the Dutch Eredivisie is almost done. If ready in time I will post the predictions according to the new model. I probably will not bet on it.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	1X2	1	1,35	1	1	G	1,35	0,35
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	1X2	1	3,05	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	1X2	1	2,45	1	2	F	0	-1
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	1X2	1	3	1	x	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	1X2	1	2,7	2	X	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	1X2	1	4,2	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	1X2	1	4,3	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	1X2	1	1,45	1	1	G	1,45	0,45

In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	O/U	1	1,57	O	O	G	1,57	0,57
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	O/U	1	1,74	O	O	G	1,74	0,74
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	O/U	1	2,02	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	O/U	1	1,85	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	O/U	1	1,91	U	U	G	1,91	0,91
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	O/U	1	1,69	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	O/U	1	1,7	O	O	G	1,7	0,7

In the BTTS market, we expect a lot of clean sheets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	BTTS	1	2,25	N	J	F	0	-1
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	BTTS	1	2,04	N	N	G	2,04	1,04
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	BTTS	1	2,25	N	J	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	BTTS	1	2,02	N	N	G	2,02	1,02
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	BTTS	1	1,7	J	N	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	BTTS	1	2	N	N	G	2	1
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	BTTS	1	1,65	J	N	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	BTTS	1	1,85	J	J	G	1,85	0,85

Correct score bets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	CS	1	28	0-2	3-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	CS	1	8,5	2-0	3-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	CS	1	10	1-0	4-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	CS	1	8,5	1-0	0-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	CS	1	7	1-1	0-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	CS	1	7	1-1	0-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	CS	1	8	1-0	1-0	G	8	7
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	CS	1	14	1-2	1-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	CS	1	8,5	2-1	2-1	G	8,5	7,5

Finally the Acca's:

Round	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	P/L
SP6	4 1X2	1	9,85	J	-1
SP6	4 BTS	1	11,44	J	-1
SP6	4 O/U	1,25	9,38	J	-1,25
SP6	Yankee CS	1,1		J	-1,1

We are going for a third profitable round in a row!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

		# ante	# Pay-out	P/L	ROI	#	G	F
Overal	CS	37	33,5	-3,5	-9,46%	37	4	33	10,81%
	1X2	39	29,98	-9,02	-23,13%	39	13	26	33,33%
	BTS	32	29,5	-2,5	-7,81%	32	16	16	50,00%
	O/U	23	23,68	0,68	2,96%	23	12	11	52,17%
	Yankee CS	4,4	0	-4,4	-100,00%	4	0	4	0,00%
	4 BTS	5	9,6	4,6	92,00%	5	1	4	20,00%
	4 1X2	5	0	-5	-100,00%	5	0	5	0,00%
	4 O/U	5	13,26	8,26	165,20%	5	1	4	20,00%
		150,4	139,52	-10,88	-7,23%	150	47	103	31,33%

I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in week 5) is also getting close.

Overall I'm down for 10,88 unit, but I do still believe that a can end up in green figures.
5 more rounds to go.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	1X2	1	2,7	2	2	G	2,7	1,7	-10,03
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	1X2	1	1,58	1	2	F	0	-1	-11,03
SP5	Waregem	Gent	1X2	1	3,35	X	2	F	0	-1	-12,03
SP5	Eupen	Genk	1X2	1	1,95	2	X	F	0	-1	-13,03
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	1X2	1	1,52	1	1	G	1,52	0,52	-12,51
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	1X2	1	1,95	1	1	G	1,95	0,95	-11,56
SP5	Mouscron	Lokeren	1X2	1	3,55	X	X	G	3,55	2,55	-9,01
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	1X2	1	1,46	1	2	F	0	-1	-10,01
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	BTS	1	1,65	J	J	G	1,65	0,65	-9,36
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	BTS	1	2,05	N	N	G	2,05	1,05	-8,31
SP5	Union	Lierse	BTS	1	2,08	N	J	F	0	-1	-9,31
SP5	Waregem	Gent	BTS	1	1,9	N	N	G	1,9	0,9	-8,41
SP5	Eupen	Genk	BTS	1	1,54	J	J	G	1,54	0,54	-7,87
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	BTS	1	1,98	N	J	F	0	-1	-8,87
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	BTS	1	2,08	N	N	G	2,08	1,08	-7,79
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	BTS	1	1,88	N	N	G	1,88	0,88	-6,91
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	O/U	1	1,84	O	O	G	1,84	0,84	-6,07
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	O/U	1	2,14	U	U	G	2,14	1,14	-4,93
SP5	Waregem	Gent	O/U	1	2,18	O	U	F	0	-1	-5,93
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	O/U	1	1,71	U	O	F	0	-1	-6,93
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	O/U	1	2,15	U	U	G	2,15	1,15	-5,78
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	CS	1	10	1-2	2-3	F	0	-1	-6,78
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	CS	1	8,5	2-0	0-2	F	0	-1	-7,78
SP5	Union	Lierse	CS	1	11,5	2-0	1-3	F	0	-1	-8,78
SP5	Waregem	Gent	CS	1	9	1-0	0-2	F	0	-1	-9,78
SP5	Eupen	Genk	CS	1	8,5	1-2	1-1	F	0	-1	-10,78
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	CS	1	8,5	2-0	3-1	F	0	-1	-11,78
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	CS	1	8	1-0	1-0	G	8	7	-4,78
SP5	Mouscron	Lokeren	CS	1	7	1-1	2-2	F	0	-1	-5,78
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	CS	1	7,5	1-0	0-1	F	0	-1	-6,78
SP5			4 1X2	1	9,13	J	N	F	0	-1	-7,78
SP5			4 BTS	1	12,42	J	N	F	0	-1	-8,78
SP5			4 O/U	1	13,63	J	N	F	0	-1	-9,78
SP5			Yankee CS	1,1		J	N	F	0	-1,1	-10,88