Thursday, August 27, 2015

Jupiler Pro League Matchday 6 predications

As promised:

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Here we go again!

The football season started again and so my urge to take another gamble on the sports markets.

I did credit my Unibet account with €30 at the end of July. At the moment my account statement says €90. But there is more. I did already cash twice. The first withdrawal was €75 and the second was €96. I know that these are strange numbers but I don’t like it having much more than €100 on my Unibet account. If this is the situation I tend to take more risks, both in staking and in odds.

Most of my profit does come from the Superscore game on Unibet. I did have 2 winning tickets, good for a pay-out of around 260€.
This already indicates that I have a very big leak somewhere. Without looking at my betting log, I already know that this probably are my bets on the Supertoto. If I’m not mistaken, I did bet around €60 on various tickets, with only 1 small winning. Still I do have faith in the Supertoto.

In contrast to other years I don’t have a fixed betting plan for each week, sport or competition. I must admit that I do like it this way. On the other side I will have a review on my betting log to find leaks. Leaks can only be solved in 2 possible ways, stay away from the particular market or do much more investigation before placing a bet.
I also play less combinations.

In contrast to having no specific betting plan, I did set up something for the Jupiler Pro League in Belgium. Not alone I do have some kind of betting plan, I also will publish these on the latest 1 day before the first match kicks off (maybe not all odds will be filled in, due to the fact that Unibet is late in the goal scorer market).

The plan is as followed. Each matchday I will place 4 types of bets.
Bet 1: JPL8 1X2 -> This is a betting slip on all games of the round. On each game I will predict home win, draw, away win, home win / draw or away win/draw. The stake on this betting slip will always be €1.
Bet 2: JPL5 R -> This is a betting slip, with 5 games of the round on it. In stead of 1X2 bets, the type of bets will be in the order of home team scores (HTS), away team scores (ATS), both team scores (BTS), clean sheet home (CSH), clean sheet away (CSA), over/under 2,5 goals (O 2,5 or U2,5), home team wins at least one half (HWH), away team wins at least one half (AWH). Also each time a €1 stake.
Bet 3: JPL2 SP -> Only 2 bets on this type of ticket. I will try to predict 2 players which will score during the matchday. Also here a €1 bet.
Bet 4: JPL2 CS -> This one is more a fantasy bet, than a real one. The chances that I will have a winning tickets during the 25 remaining round are very slim. That’s why the stake will be only €0,5 per betting slip. I will try to predict 2 correct score from the matchday.

The total investment of this will be €87,5 for the season.
Based on the average winning odds of last season I will need the following figures to make a profit per betting type:
JPL8 1X2 -> 3 winning tickets
JPL5 R -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 SP -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 CS -> 1 winning ticket (if this comes true, that a profit is guaranteed over the complete scheme)

I’ll keep you posted. Thursday evening I will post my first bets for the Jupiler Pro League.

Friday, January 30, 2015

Week 5 bets

After the loosing week, let's see if we can turn things around.

I did place the following bets on the European tour @ Dubai Classic. The major of the middle east.
Win bets 0.5 pts per bet:
H. Stenson @ 13.
L. Oosthuizen @ 29 (Did not start)

Place 5 bets also 0.5 pts per bet:
L. Oosthuizen @ 6,6 (Did not start)
T. Fleetwood @ 14,2
E. Grillo @ 11
T. Olesen @ 14 (Missed cut)
N. Colsaerts @ 13

Place 10 bet 0.5 pts:
R. Rock @ 15

Update after cut: Only bets still can be won. That is a top 10 place for Rock and a Top 5 place for E. Grillo. I know still 36 holes to play but I can't imagine that Stenson wins the tournament. He is six shots behind.
Fleetwood already 9 shots behind fifth place. Colsaerts also 6 shots behind the predicted place, but he had his bad day already, made his cut, so he play without pressure and climb the ladder on moving day.

My 8 to wacth bets:
Wattel @ 17
E. Grillo @ 11
T. Pieters @ 11
Pepperel @ 14,2
Hatton @ 19
Broberg @ 41
Bjerregaard @ 81

Update after cut:
Wattel (what is wrong with him), Pepperel and Bjerregaard (again 3 missed cuts in a row) are lost.
The bet on Grillo still possible.
Hatton made the cut, but probably to far behind to get into contention for a top 5 place.
Pieters and Broberg are currently at -6 but that 5 shots behind the top 5. Still feasible, but unlikely.

PGA Tour: Phoenix open
Win bets:
Fowler @ 23
Watson @ 15

Place 5 bets:
Fowler @ 5
Mickelson @ 6
Spieth @ 4,5
K. Na @ 17
Matsuyama @ 5

Place 10 bet:
Seung-Yul @ 10

Football bets:
Already 1 single won. The victory of Sevilla in the Spanish cup goor for a profit of 0.5 pts.

My regular weekend bets:
Random 5 Jupiler Pro League @ 6,04
Club Brugge - KV Oostende: Over 2.5 goals
Lierse - Standard : Standard to score
Charlerloi - KRC Genk: KRC Genk to score
Sp. Lokeren - AA Gent: Both teams to score
Anderlecht - Zulte Waregem: over 2.5 goals

Update: Already lost. Club Brugge has so many chances, played 85 minutes against 10 players but could only netted 2.

5 goalscoring players: Max odds @ 64,05
Lukaku (Everton)
Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
De Sutter (Club Brugge)
Batshuayi (Marseille)
Cisse (Newcastle)

Update: De Sutter didn't start, so a none runner. Lewandowski didn't find the goal against a much stronger Wolfsburg. Profit is still possible.

Combo 2 @ 2,35
Eiba - Atletico Madrid (2)
As Roma - Empoli (1)

We will keep the faith that these are start up problems :)

Good luck,

Week 4: first loosing week of the year

A loss of 5.84 pts means the first loosing week of the year.

21 bets played. 15 golf bets, 5 football bets and one tennis bet.
Only 2 winners. This was the fourth place of Eddy Pepperel at Qatar and a single bet on a football game.
Add this 9.38 pts pay-out to the return of 0,78 pts on the 5 goalscorer system bet and we have a combined return of 10,16 pts and a negative ROI of 36,5%.

You know what is frustating?
In the beginning of the year I did line up 8 players without a victory on the European tour. All promising players. Having the idea the bet on these player. I was still working out how I would bet on them, besides the regular golf bets.
If I would have played these from the beginning of the year I would have made a profit of 21,5 pts.
I will be betting on these players, each tournament this will play this year. On each of them a 0.5 pts bet for a top 5 place.

Good luck,

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Week 3 recap: second profit in a row!

Let's start with the figures:
  • Bets placed: 17
  • Total Ante: 14,25 pts
  • Return: 21,21 pts
  • P/L: + 6,96 pts
  • ROI: 48,84%.

Second week in a row with a profit. Couldn't start the year better. While there was profit, it was a bad week.
Only 1 winning bet. Namely the place bet on Thomas Pieters.
All other golf bets didn't return anything.
On the football market is was a week without any winning bet. Played 5 bets. All non system bets had one correct prediction on the ticket.
It could have been otherwise, but Club Brugge missed chance after chance, resulting in 2 loosing tickets.
A beginner error I guess, when playing 5 tickets it is not done, to have 1 match on 3 of them.

The system goalscoring bet was maybe the most disappointing one of the all. Only a return of 0,71 pts.

Still satisfied with the profit, for sure cause it was the second week in a row since the new betting plan. Still to early to draw any conclusions. Profit for the year at the moment is 15,18 pts.
Should help if I could place a winning ticket on my Bwin account, where the money is drying out.

I also will try to stay away from the Australian open, due to not enough knowledge from tennis anymore.

Will try to place my golf bets, tomorrow evening!

Good luck,

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Week 3 Football bets

Here are my selections for week 3.
As mentioned in the staking plan, per weekend 3 bets.

Bet 1:
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen :1 (1,37)
QPR - Manchester United: 2 (1,6)
Combined odds: 2,19
Ante 1 point

Bet 2:
Sp. Lokeren - KRC Genk: Both team to score (1,83)
Waasland Beveren - Zulte Waregem: Away team to score (1,23)
Anderlecht - Sk Lierse: Home team wins at least one half (1,09)
Moeskroen - AA Gent: Away team to score (1,17)
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen : Over 2.5 goals (1,59)
Combined odds: 4,56
Ante 1 point

Bet 3:
This is a system bet!
Castillo to score (Club Brugge) (odds: 2,23)
Mandžukić to score (Atletico) (odds: 1,69)
Lukaku to score (Everton) (odds: 2,8)
Origi to score (LOSC Lille) (odds: 4)
Chadli to score (Tottenham) (odds: 3,8)
Combined odds for all correct: 114,11
Ante 3.5 points. (0.2 points on the singles, 0,1 points on the doubles, 0,1 points on the trebles and 0,5 points on the quintet.)
If three of these player manages to score, than a profit is guaranteed.
I will give this bet type 10 tries before evaluating it.

Total Football ante for the weekend: 5,5 points.

Good luck,

Golf bets week 3

Here are my golf selections for the Sony open and the Abu Dhabi championship.

Sony open:
To win:
J. Day: 0,5 point, odds 13
C. Kirk: 0,5 point, odds 17

Place 5:
C. Howell III: 1 point, odds 9
T. Finau: 0,5 points, odds 17
B. Weekly: 0,5 points, odds 17
R. Henly: 1 point, odds 6,6

Abu Dhabi:
To win:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,25 points, odds 51

Place 5:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,75 points, odds 11
C. Schwartzel: 0,5 points, odds 8
R. Fowler: 1 point, odds 3,8
T. Pieters: 0,5 points, odds 41
N. Colsaerts: 1 point, odds 14,2

Good luck,