Thursday, October 31, 2013

October Recap

Well it wasn't my best month to be honest. A loss of 61,23 Euro. Oeps.
The good news is that there should be a lot of leaks to be discovered.

I played 163 bets, which is a little bit more than in the previous months. The biggest change was the ante, in total I put 440,34 Euro at stake! That's an average of 2,70 Euro pet bet, which is an increase of 40%. Way to much.  If I look at my ROI, which is -13.91%, it is obvious that the main reason for loosing so much money was my increase in stakes.

Due to my betting bake strategy I did withdraw 45 Euro from my Unibet account, leaving 125 available. I didn't withdraw any money from Bwin.

Performance by Sport/Event
If I look at my performance per sport/event than there are more loosing ones than profitables:
1. Supertoto -> -49,16 (-92.8%)
2. Primera Division -> -13,72 (-67,4%)
3. Euro League -> -7.50 (-41.7%)

I do accept to loss at the Supertoto because it is all or nothing, but I have to admit that I played way to many tickets (16). Both the Primera Division and Euro league had black figures last month. So nothing to worry about at the moment.
The biggest winning sport/events were:
1. Ligue 1 -> +11.36 (82,56%)
2. Champions League -> +17.69 (56,09%)
3. Golf -> +6.08 (28.95%)

It is nice to see that Golf is finally writing the figures in green!

Performance by bet type
31 bet types are defined in my sheet. 14 bet types weren't used in September. 12 bet types were causing my money, so only 5 were winners.
Top 3 of the loosing betting types (money wise):
1. Supertoto -> -42.90 (-100%)
2. 1 2 -> -11.33 (-16,6%)
3. Over/Under 2.5 -> -10.06 (-45.7%)

1 2 and Supertoto did had black figures in September, the Over/Under 2.5 bets are a complete different story, cause also in September  I had a loss there. So maybe I should avoid this betting type in November.

The top 3 of the winning betting types (again money wise):
1. To score -> +10.95 (28.1%)
2. 1 X 2 -> +7.23 (4.6%)
3. 2 ball -> +5.08 (29.9%)

It is really nice to see that I did again made a profit in the 1 X 2 market! When playing the To score market correctly, I do feel that this could be a cash cow for me.

The goal for next month are, the turn back into green figures. Downsize the Supertoto bets and in number and in stake.
Staying away from the Over/Under bets.
And limiting my stakes to a 3 Euro max!!!

Also I want to finish my post: finding leaks in sports betting based on odds!

Cu,
Dremeber



Monday, October 21, 2013

(My) Betting bank

First of all I have to make clear that I'm not a professional punter. Sports’ betting is one of my hobbies. Of course my ultimate goal is to make a profit with it. This article describes my thoughts on a betting bank and has nothing to do with a staking plan, nor should it be considered a bible!

I'm betting on sport since 98 or 99. Not continuously but with waves. Active for months until my betting bank dried up.
Then not playing for months/years. Each time when a new football season starts, it starts itching again and I do fund my betting bank again.

Each time when I do need to fund my betting bank with fresh money I had to do this via my real life bank accounts. Funding never exceeded 50 euros. Most of the time it was even less. I never did see it as investments more as lost money.
This time I was lucky because the second month of my wave was so profitable that I directly decided to withdraw my funding from my betting bank back to my real life account. Meaning that I'm playing with free money.

The definition of a betting bank is the same for professional as recreational punters. It is the sum of the money available for sports betting. Of course there are big differences between the sizes of the betting banks between us. But the definition should always be the same.
In my case the betting bank exists of 2 bookmaker accounts and (from now on) a dried out Skrill (aka Moneybookers) account.

The Moneybookers account I have, has it origin when I was playing online poker. But I haven't used it in years. This will change.

My plan:
At the beginning of the each month I will evaluate the money at my bookmakers accounts.
For each bookmaker account a certain limit is installed. When at the first of the month the account exceeds the limit, all the money above the limit will be withdrawn to the Skrill account.

The question is: What is going to be the limit?
I do have a primary and secondary bookie. This is based on the number of bets placed at the account.
Currently the money at Unibet is around 200 euros, at Bwin it is around 20 Euro.
I do feel that 125 Euro should be enough to play at Unibet and 30 should be enough at Bwin.

If the money at the primary bookie account exceeds the limit but the difference is less than the withdrawal limit I will withdraw the minimal withdrawal limit.
Withdrawal at the secondary bookie will only be done, when the difference is also above the withdrawal limit.

Limits can only be changed due to a change in my stacking plan.

Due to the fact that my account at Skrill has dried up. I first need to build it up again. When it is getting healthy, I probably will choose to start each month at my bookies with the exact same amount but this is not an issue at the moment.

Why do I find that it is important to bank some money?
Well there are several reasons for this action:
- Personally I do notice that how higher the account at the bookie is, how bigger the risk and my stakes are on a single betting slip.
  By banking some money, I will try to eliminate this. (Rarely my account had more than 100 euros)
- By doing this I have some money set aside but it is still part of my betting bank. If a bookie accounts does dry up, I can refund it without funding my betting bank.
- We all know what a fantastic feeling it is to win a big bet. But as long as the money stands on a bookie account it isn't profit.  It just does increase the account. I only consider profit a profit, when it is returned to my real life account.
- If deposit bonuses pop up, I can quickly react on it, without the need to fund my betting bank.
- The money on the online account can be considered safe. We all know the feeling to take more risk to compensate a big loosing bet (The tilt factor as they like to call it in Poker) or even when we are placing drunk bets :). Money which isn't on the bookie can be considered safe in respect to this.
- It makes it much easier to shift money between the bookies without involving my real life account!

These are my main reasons to set up my betting bank, like described above.
The ultimate goal is to withdraw money from my Skrill account to my real life account. Only when this is done, it can be considered a profit.

Remarks, additions of thoughts are always welcome.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, October 18, 2013

Homework for the weekend is done! Wen't a little overboard.

For once I will try to give you an insight in my betting strategy.
After doing to home work for this weekend, I did place 15 bets for a combined ante of 44.23 euro. That an average of 2.95 euro per bet. The average odds are 1.95.

I have to admit that this is not according to my bankroll management, nor the money I'm normally willing to put a risk on a single weekend. Don't know why I did it.

I first selected from all the football games across Europe the games where I think I can predict to winner, a goal scorer, etc...
This were put on a sheet. The next step was to collect the odds at the 2 bookies I'm using.

Normally I'm more a one-day gambler. Meaning that in the evening I do select and place my bets for the next day. If I do an analysis of my previous weekend, the number of bets will probably be around the same number. I do doubt however if the average ante would be as high. But it is what it is.

Without any further delay here are my weekend bets:
    Bet type              Match                                  Ante           Odds   
1) Tennis                 Seppi vs Roger-Vasselin       2 euro        1.4   -> refunded
2) To score             Romelu Lukaku (Everton)     2 euro        2      -> lost
3) To score             Ferreira (Monaco)                2 euro        4      -> won (8)
4) Combo 2            Saint-Etienne - Lorient          2.5 euro     2.27 -> lost
                               Sochaux - Monaco    
5) Combo 2            Osasuna - FC Barcelona      2 euro        1.49  -> lost
                               PSG - Bastia    
6) To score             Neymar (FC Barcelona)       2 euro        1.92   -> lost
7) Combo 3            Chelsea - Cardiff                  3 euro        1.8    -> lost
                               Standard Liege - Charlerloi
                               Real Madrid - Malaga
8) 1 X 2                  Mons - RSC Anderlecht       4.97 euro   1.45   -> won (7,21)
9) 1 X 2                  Espaynol - Atletico Madrid    3 euro       1.7     -> lost
10) 1 X 2                Man. Utd - Southampton      4 euro        1.55   -> lost  
11) Combo 2          Arsenal - Norwich                 5 euro        1.66   -> won (8.30)
                               KRC Genk - FC Lierse  
12) To score           Ribery (Bayern Munich)         2 euro        2         -> refunded
13) Cleansheet        Atletico Madrid                     2 euro        2.2      -> lost
14) 1 X 2               AC Ajaccio - FC Nantes       3.76 euro  2.4       -> won (9.02)
15) 1 X 2               AZ - Cambuur                       4 euro        1.5      -> won (6)

I hope that these bets will make me a profit for the weekend.
Like all gambler these are all winners on paper. But if I need to pick 3 of them in which I have the most faith then these would be net number 15, 10 and 2.
Bet 15 -> AZ did appoint Dick Advocaat as their new head coach in the beginning of the week. This season AZ is still unbeaten at the home soil. Cambuur on the other hand isn't capable of winning outgames.
Bet 10 -> Manchester has so much more quality than Southampton. Rooney is getting back in form, Van Persie still is and with Januzaj they maybe have found the missing link.
Bet 2 -> Lukaku is scoring goals with his eyes closed and gained a lot of confidence with his 2 goals against Croatia.

But hey the name is the game is gambling for a reason!

Good luck,
Dremeber                

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

September Recap

September was good for me.
Concluded bets:         135
Total stake                 258,07 euro
Net profit:                  254,61 euro
Return on investment: 98,66%

38,3% of the bets were winners.

While my biggest part of the profit does come from 1 supertoto ticket my other results weren't that bad either.

Performance by Sport/Event
If I look at my performance per sport/event than there are only 4 loosing:
Golf -> - 9,47 euro (-41,2%)
Tennis -> - 7,56 euro (-19,9%)
Serie A -> - 1,56 euro (- 52%)
Premier league -> - 3,61 euro (-31,4%)

The biggest winning sport/events were:
1. Supertoto -> + 240,56 (783,1%)
2. Ligue 1 -> + 17,20 (63,7%)
3. Eredivisie -> + 6,73 (84,1%)

Fairly proud on the fact that I also made a profit with football combos. One of the most difficult areas of sportsbetting.

Performance by bet type
27 bet types are defined in my sheet. 7 bet types weren't used in September. 13 bet types were causing my money, so only 7 were winners.
Top 3 of the loosing betting types (money wise):
1. Set (set winning at tennis) -> - 8,26 euro (-68,8%)
2. Supertoto 14 -> - 7,52 euro (- 100%)
3. Football combo 2 -> - 6,38 euro (- 29%)

Set bets are all live bets. I should stay away from these.
Loosing on the supertoto14 is kind of normal. Or it will be a profit or a loss in a month.
Didn't expect that Football combo 2 would be in this list. These are just betting tickets with 2 football matches on them. If I look in detail into this. I did play 7 of these, with 4 winners. Meaning that I took to much of a risk on the loosing ones.

The top 3 of the winning betting types (again money wise):
1. Supertoto: + 248,08 euro (+ 1069,3%)
2. 1 X 2: + 31,70 euro (+ 29,3%)
3. Football combo 3: + 7,95 euro (+ 265%)

I can only dream of achieving the same numbers for October. I won't be winning each month such a big supertoto ticket.
But we have to set some goals:
1. Make a profit.
2. Decrease the loosing betting types.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Woohoo: big pay day!!

Had a normal night with only 2 football bets running but at the last moment I also decided to fill in a supertoto ticket @ Unibet. 32 combination good for an ante of 3.20 euros.
My 2 regular football bets were winning tickets. One single and a double. Good for profit to cover the Supertoto ticket.

But thx to the surprising win of Scotland and the win of France, I did manage to predict all matches correctly. Good for a pay-out of around 265 euros. That's a ROI of 8121%.

So back in the green figures now. Still need to free some bonus money @ BWIN.
Will withdraw some money tomorrow from my Unibet account. Meaning that I will be capable of playing with pure profit money and that all risks of loosing money are eliminated. Did not expect to be capable of withdrawing my investment with a profit so quickly!

Still waiting that Unibet makes the pay-out official so that I can add the ticket to my biggest wins.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Golf bets recap

The European tour bets were according to the new betting scheme, the PGA tour bets were still random.

Only one winning bet. The place bet on Gallacher which did return 0.58 pts, so a loss of 0.42 pts for the european tour.
M. Warren missed the cut.
Cabrera (T35) was never really in contention.
F. Molinari (T42) made the cut, but from then on he couldn't play a sub par round.
Koepka (T28) was in contention untill saturday.