Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Week 3 recap: second profit in a row!

Let's start with the figures:
  • Bets placed: 17
  • Total Ante: 14,25 pts
  • Return: 21,21 pts
  • P/L: + 6,96 pts
  • ROI: 48,84%.

Second week in a row with a profit. Couldn't start the year better. While there was profit, it was a bad week.
Only 1 winning bet. Namely the place bet on Thomas Pieters.
All other golf bets didn't return anything.
On the football market is was a week without any winning bet. Played 5 bets. All non system bets had one correct prediction on the ticket.
It could have been otherwise, but Club Brugge missed chance after chance, resulting in 2 loosing tickets.
A beginner error I guess, when playing 5 tickets it is not done, to have 1 match on 3 of them.

The system goalscoring bet was maybe the most disappointing one of the all. Only a return of 0,71 pts.

Still satisfied with the profit, for sure cause it was the second week in a row since the new betting plan. Still to early to draw any conclusions. Profit for the year at the moment is 15,18 pts.
Should help if I could place a winning ticket on my Bwin account, where the money is drying out.

I also will try to stay away from the Australian open, due to not enough knowledge from tennis anymore.

Will try to place my golf bets, tomorrow evening!

Good luck,
Dremeber



Thursday, January 15, 2015

Week 3 Football bets

Here are my selections for week 3.
As mentioned in the staking plan, per weekend 3 bets.

Bet 1:
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen :1 (1,37)
QPR - Manchester United: 2 (1,6)
Combined odds: 2,19
Ante 1 point

Bet 2:
Sp. Lokeren - KRC Genk: Both team to score (1,83)
Waasland Beveren - Zulte Waregem: Away team to score (1,23)
Anderlecht - Sk Lierse: Home team wins at least one half (1,09)
Moeskroen - AA Gent: Away team to score (1,17)
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen : Over 2.5 goals (1,59)
Combined odds: 4,56
Ante 1 point

Bet 3:
This is a system bet!
Castillo to score (Club Brugge) (odds: 2,23)
Mandžukić to score (Atletico) (odds: 1,69)
Lukaku to score (Everton) (odds: 2,8)
Origi to score (LOSC Lille) (odds: 4)
Chadli to score (Tottenham) (odds: 3,8)
Combined odds for all correct: 114,11
Ante 3.5 points. (0.2 points on the singles, 0,1 points on the doubles, 0,1 points on the trebles and 0,5 points on the quintet.)
If three of these player manages to score, than a profit is guaranteed.
I will give this bet type 10 tries before evaluating it.

Total Football ante for the weekend: 5,5 points.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Golf bets week 3

Here are my golf selections for the Sony open and the Abu Dhabi championship.

Sony open:
To win:
J. Day: 0,5 point, odds 13
C. Kirk: 0,5 point, odds 17

Place 5:
C. Howell III: 1 point, odds 9
T. Finau: 0,5 points, odds 17
B. Weekly: 0,5 points, odds 17
R. Henly: 1 point, odds 6,6

Abu Dhabi:
To win:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,25 points, odds 51

Place 5:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,75 points, odds 11
C. Schwartzel: 0,5 points, odds 8
R. Fowler: 1 point, odds 3,8
T. Pieters: 0,5 points, odds 41
N. Colsaerts: 1 point, odds 14,2

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Weekend recap and staking plan finalized

I turned out to be a good weekend.

7 bets placed on Golf and 1 system bet on football.

PGA Tour:

0.5 points Win bet on Matsuyama (17) -> Lost
1 point Place (5) bet on Reed -> Won (4 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on Day -> Won (2.5 ponts)


European Tour:

Bets where placed after the second round.
1 point Win bet on Sullivan -> Won (4,35 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on M. Benavides -> Won (5 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on A. Tadini -> Won (1 point due to dead heat rules)
1 point Place (5) bet on C. Net -> lost

So a profit of 10,1 points on Golf, with a ROI of 155%.


Football:

A 3,5 point system scoring bet on 5 players.
Menez from Ac Milan and Diego Costa from Chelsea did find the net.
Batschu from Marseille, Benteke (Aston Villa) and Caslos Bacca (Sevilla) could net one in.
A return of 1,62 points.


Total for the weekend:

Ante: 10 points
Return: 18.22 points
Profit: 8.22 points
ROI: 82%.

Staking plan for the comming weeks, special events not included!

Golf:
Maximum 4 points on the PGA Tour
Maximum 4 points on the European Tour

Football:
1 system bets including 5 scoring players from the European competitions. Ante will be 3.5 points.
1 no system 5 bet of 1 point on the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. (This was the only bet type, which delivered a profit over 20 match rounds based on the Belgian Pro League, with an estimated ROI of 11%.
1 point bet 1X2 on the combination of 2 matches from the European Leagues.

So per weekend in general a stake of 13,5 points.


Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, January 08, 2015

I'm fed up with being a loosing sportsbetter ...

... time to turn things around!

But how? That's the question!

Looking back!

Don't know how long I'm playing with sportsbetting, but for around a year of 10!
I have tried doing my researches before placing bets, setting up a bankroll management, spreading my bankroll over different bookmakers, grinding the internet for golden tips, doing an analysis of my previous bets and tons of other things. But still I have to admit that I'm a loosing gambler.
While my antes are on the low side, I did had some great winnings! Look for instances at my winning supertoto tickets!

Where did it go wrong?

Most of the time it was just pure discipline!  Forgetting my own bankrule management, placing impulsive bets, betting on markets not known to me.
The combination of the 3 is killing.

What did I do correct?

I did manage to set up a bankroll management.
I never played with money needed for real live expenses.
I do understand how bookmakers work and what the odds do mean!
I'm not addicted! I can do without sports betting but I have to admit that I do find it a challenge!

The current situation!

I do have a limited bankroll for the moment at 2 online bookmakers. In my case this is Unibet and Bwin. At the moment of writing my bankroll is: 48,24 euros.
Do the fact that I live in a country where sportsbetting is allowed and more or less controled by the government only a limited set of bookies is available. But I'm satisfied with these 2. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. I'll have to do with them.

Unfortunately my online wallet is empty. I'm willing to fund this wallet once more this year, but that will be it.

Where do we go from here?

Betting

I will limit the sports I will be regularly betting on to 2! Football (soccer) and Golf.
I will again start with recording my bets in a spreadsheet.
I will do a research before placing the bets between the odds my 2 bookmakers are offering for most bets. Due to minimal bet rules on Bwin, this will not be possible for the system bets I will be placing. Minimal bet @ Unibet is only 0,10 euros, while Bwin has a minimal bet of 1 euro.

Golf:
Here I will limit myself to only tournaments. Place or win bets are allowed on both the PGA and European tour. Per tournament max 1 win and 2 place bets. In general it will be, 0,5 euros for the win, 1 euro for a place bet. So max 2,5 euros per tournament. 5 euros per week.
When it is a co-sanctioned tournament, it will be 2 win and 4 place bets.

Football:
Here I will allow myself some freedom.
I will however minimalize the competitions I will select my games from to: Bundesliga, Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A, Eredivisie, La liga, the Jupiler Pro League and cup matches of these leagues. Off course, the Champions League and European league are also valid markets.

I still need to work out which bets I will play. 

American Football:
Only NFL, only 1 bet per week, with an ante of 1 euro. Maximum 2 games combined on the ticket.

Major sporting tournaments:
Will depend on the tournament and sport type. But these will not be ruled out.

I just need to stay away from regular competitions in others sports.


Blogging

The only way for me to keep my focus and restrain to my betting rules, is also to blog.
I was doubting about starting a complete new blog, of reviving this one. I decided to re-animate this one, cause it is already know with the search engines.
I will try to write some previews for the bigger sport tournaments and will be updating my stats, profit ans losses and so on.

Also I will try to create a top set of other gambling punter websites which are transparent which their predictions in advance and a result page.
This will be done for Football betting and Golf betting.

Also I will try to work out some betting articles.

Fine-tunning the page lay-out.

Goals

Make a profit on the end of the year, betting wise.
Still blogging at the end of the year.

All things above are just guidelines and will be fine tunned during the year.
Also, things can change due to an increase of the bankroll. I will set-up my betting rule during the year, see what works and what doesn't.

Good luck,
Dremeber




Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Bets for match day 3!

Hoping on the first winning ticket of the season!


Bet typeGamePred.ResultOddsC. Odds
JLP8 1X2KRC Genk - Lokeren121,325,15
KV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk1x1,31
Lierse - Moeskroen12,35
Waasland - Westerlox21,45
Cercle Brugge - KV Oostende12,15
Standard - AA Gent121,24
Anderlecht - Charlerloi11,28
Zulte Waregem - Club Brugge121,27
JPL5 RLierse - MoeskroenBTS1,8613,11
KV Mechelen - KV KortrijkO 2.51,86
Anderlecht - CharlerloiCSH1,86
Waasland - WesterloHTS1,25
Zulte Waregem - Club BruggeBTS1,6
JPL CSKV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk1-177
JPL2 SPKV Mechelen - KV KortrijkHanni4,68,88
Anderlecht - CharlerloiMitrovic1,93
JPL2 CSCercle Brugge - KV Oostende2-010,5210
Lierse - Moeskroen3-120

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Recap: Match day2

Again no winning ticket. Have to remind myself that it is a marathon and not a 100 meter dash.

JLP8 1X2: 2 wrong. The first one is my own fault. Originally I did put a 1X on Genk - Cercle, but changed it into 1 to increase the odds. A stupid beginner mistake. The victory of Westerlo at Charlerloi was a complete surprise to me. It is the first time since the new competition format that a promoted team wins its first 2 matches. (avg odds.  19.94)

JPL5 R: Just like the first match day one wrong. This time it was the over 2.5 bet for Oostende - Anderlecht. Still I have faith in this betting type. (Avg odds 4.15)

JPL CS: At half time my correct score prediction was spot on, but Westerlo decided to score 2 extra :(. (avg. odds: 9.5)

JPL 2 SP: Due to the fact that Suarez didn't start the game the odds were decreased to 2,38. While Mboyo gave an assist, he didn't netted one. (Avg Odds: 6.74)

JPL 2 CS: This one is just a lottery. Hope that I can win one of these this season. (Avg odds: 59.62)

Stats JPL so far:
Home win: 10 (62.5%)
Draw: 2 (12.5%)
Away win: 4 (25%)

Home team scores: 13 (81.25%)
Away team scores: 9 (56.26%)
Both team score: 7 (43.75%)

No goal: 1 (6.25%)
O 0.5: 15 (93.75%)
O 1.5: 12 (75%)
O 2.5: 7 (43.75%)
O 3.5: 5 (31.25%)

Most frequent scores:
1-0: 3 (18.75%)
3-1: 3 (18.75%)
0-2: 2 (12.5%)
2-0: 2 (12.5%)
2-3: 2 (12.5%)

Good luck,
Dremeber