Friday, January 30, 2015

Week 5 bets

After the loosing week, let's see if we can turn things around.

I did place the following bets on the European tour @ Dubai Classic. The major of the middle east.
Win bets 0.5 pts per bet:
H. Stenson @ 13.
L. Oosthuizen @ 29 (Did not start)

Place 5 bets also 0.5 pts per bet:
L. Oosthuizen @ 6,6 (Did not start)
T. Fleetwood @ 14,2
E. Grillo @ 11
T. Olesen @ 14 (Missed cut)
N. Colsaerts @ 13

Place 10 bet 0.5 pts:
R. Rock @ 15

Update after cut: Only bets still can be won. That is a top 10 place for Rock and a Top 5 place for E. Grillo. I know still 36 holes to play but I can't imagine that Stenson wins the tournament. He is six shots behind.
Fleetwood already 9 shots behind fifth place. Colsaerts also 6 shots behind the predicted place, but he had his bad day already, made his cut, so he play without pressure and climb the ladder on moving day.

My 8 to wacth bets:
Wattel @ 17
E. Grillo @ 11
T. Pieters @ 11
Pepperel @ 14,2
Hatton @ 19
Broberg @ 41
Bjerregaard @ 81

Update after cut:
Wattel (what is wrong with him), Pepperel and Bjerregaard (again 3 missed cuts in a row) are lost.
The bet on Grillo still possible.
Hatton made the cut, but probably to far behind to get into contention for a top 5 place.
Pieters and Broberg are currently at -6 but that 5 shots behind the top 5. Still feasible, but unlikely.

PGA Tour: Phoenix open
Win bets:
Fowler @ 23
Watson @ 15

Place 5 bets:
Fowler @ 5
Mickelson @ 6
Spieth @ 4,5
K. Na @ 17
Matsuyama @ 5

Place 10 bet:
Seung-Yul @ 10

Football bets:
Already 1 single won. The victory of Sevilla in the Spanish cup goor for a profit of 0.5 pts.

My regular weekend bets:
Random 5 Jupiler Pro League @ 6,04
Club Brugge - KV Oostende: Over 2.5 goals
Lierse - Standard : Standard to score
Charlerloi - KRC Genk: KRC Genk to score
Sp. Lokeren - AA Gent: Both teams to score
Anderlecht - Zulte Waregem: over 2.5 goals

Update: Already lost. Club Brugge has so many chances, played 85 minutes against 10 players but could only netted 2.

5 goalscoring players: Max odds @ 64,05
Lukaku (Everton)
Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
De Sutter (Club Brugge)
Batshuayi (Marseille)
Cisse (Newcastle)

Update: De Sutter didn't start, so a none runner. Lewandowski didn't find the goal against a much stronger Wolfsburg. Profit is still possible.

Combo 2 @ 2,35
Eiba - Atletico Madrid (2)
As Roma - Empoli (1)

We will keep the faith that these are start up problems :)

Good luck,
Dremeber


Week 4: first loosing week of the year

A loss of 5.84 pts means the first loosing week of the year.

21 bets played. 15 golf bets, 5 football bets and one tennis bet.
Only 2 winners. This was the fourth place of Eddy Pepperel at Qatar and a single bet on a football game.
Add this 9.38 pts pay-out to the return of 0,78 pts on the 5 goalscorer system bet and we have a combined return of 10,16 pts and a negative ROI of 36,5%.

You know what is frustating?
In the beginning of the year I did line up 8 players without a victory on the European tour. All promising players. Having the idea the bet on these player. I was still working out how I would bet on them, besides the regular golf bets.
If I would have played these from the beginning of the year I would have made a profit of 21,5 pts.
I will be betting on these players, each tournament this will play this year. On each of them a 0.5 pts bet for a top 5 place.

Good luck,
Dremeber


Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Week 3 recap: second profit in a row!

Let's start with the figures:
  • Bets placed: 17
  • Total Ante: 14,25 pts
  • Return: 21,21 pts
  • P/L: + 6,96 pts
  • ROI: 48,84%.

Second week in a row with a profit. Couldn't start the year better. While there was profit, it was a bad week.
Only 1 winning bet. Namely the place bet on Thomas Pieters.
All other golf bets didn't return anything.
On the football market is was a week without any winning bet. Played 5 bets. All non system bets had one correct prediction on the ticket.
It could have been otherwise, but Club Brugge missed chance after chance, resulting in 2 loosing tickets.
A beginner error I guess, when playing 5 tickets it is not done, to have 1 match on 3 of them.

The system goalscoring bet was maybe the most disappointing one of the all. Only a return of 0,71 pts.

Still satisfied with the profit, for sure cause it was the second week in a row since the new betting plan. Still to early to draw any conclusions. Profit for the year at the moment is 15,18 pts.
Should help if I could place a winning ticket on my Bwin account, where the money is drying out.

I also will try to stay away from the Australian open, due to not enough knowledge from tennis anymore.

Will try to place my golf bets, tomorrow evening!

Good luck,
Dremeber



Thursday, January 15, 2015

Week 3 Football bets

Here are my selections for week 3.
As mentioned in the staking plan, per weekend 3 bets.

Bet 1:
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen :1 (1,37)
QPR - Manchester United: 2 (1,6)
Combined odds: 2,19
Ante 1 point

Bet 2:
Sp. Lokeren - KRC Genk: Both team to score (1,83)
Waasland Beveren - Zulte Waregem: Away team to score (1,23)
Anderlecht - Sk Lierse: Home team wins at least one half (1,09)
Moeskroen - AA Gent: Away team to score (1,17)
Club Brugge - KV Mechelen : Over 2.5 goals (1,59)
Combined odds: 4,56
Ante 1 point

Bet 3:
This is a system bet!
Castillo to score (Club Brugge) (odds: 2,23)
Mandžukić to score (Atletico) (odds: 1,69)
Lukaku to score (Everton) (odds: 2,8)
Origi to score (LOSC Lille) (odds: 4)
Chadli to score (Tottenham) (odds: 3,8)
Combined odds for all correct: 114,11
Ante 3.5 points. (0.2 points on the singles, 0,1 points on the doubles, 0,1 points on the trebles and 0,5 points on the quintet.)
If three of these player manages to score, than a profit is guaranteed.
I will give this bet type 10 tries before evaluating it.

Total Football ante for the weekend: 5,5 points.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Golf bets week 3

Here are my golf selections for the Sony open and the Abu Dhabi championship.

Sony open:
To win:
J. Day: 0,5 point, odds 13
C. Kirk: 0,5 point, odds 17

Place 5:
C. Howell III: 1 point, odds 9
T. Finau: 0,5 points, odds 17
B. Weekly: 0,5 points, odds 17
R. Henly: 1 point, odds 6,6

Abu Dhabi:
To win:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,25 points, odds 51

Place 5:
Cabrera-Bello: 0,75 points, odds 11
C. Schwartzel: 0,5 points, odds 8
R. Fowler: 1 point, odds 3,8
T. Pieters: 0,5 points, odds 41
N. Colsaerts: 1 point, odds 14,2

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Weekend recap and staking plan finalized

I turned out to be a good weekend.

7 bets placed on Golf and 1 system bet on football.

PGA Tour:

0.5 points Win bet on Matsuyama (17) -> Lost
1 point Place (5) bet on Reed -> Won (4 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on Day -> Won (2.5 ponts)


European Tour:

Bets where placed after the second round.
1 point Win bet on Sullivan -> Won (4,35 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on M. Benavides -> Won (5 points)
1 point Place (5) bet on A. Tadini -> Won (1 point due to dead heat rules)
1 point Place (5) bet on C. Net -> lost

So a profit of 10,1 points on Golf, with a ROI of 155%.


Football:

A 3,5 point system scoring bet on 5 players.
Menez from Ac Milan and Diego Costa from Chelsea did find the net.
Batschu from Marseille, Benteke (Aston Villa) and Caslos Bacca (Sevilla) could net one in.
A return of 1,62 points.


Total for the weekend:

Ante: 10 points
Return: 18.22 points
Profit: 8.22 points
ROI: 82%.

Staking plan for the comming weeks, special events not included!

Golf:
Maximum 4 points on the PGA Tour
Maximum 4 points on the European Tour

Football:
1 system bets including 5 scoring players from the European competitions. Ante will be 3.5 points.
1 no system 5 bet of 1 point on the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. (This was the only bet type, which delivered a profit over 20 match rounds based on the Belgian Pro League, with an estimated ROI of 11%.
1 point bet 1X2 on the combination of 2 matches from the European Leagues.

So per weekend in general a stake of 13,5 points.


Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, January 08, 2015

I'm fed up with being a loosing sportsbetter ...

... time to turn things around!

But how? That's the question!

Looking back!

Don't know how long I'm playing with sportsbetting, but for around a year of 10!
I have tried doing my researches before placing bets, setting up a bankroll management, spreading my bankroll over different bookmakers, grinding the internet for golden tips, doing an analysis of my previous bets and tons of other things. But still I have to admit that I'm a loosing gambler.
While my antes are on the low side, I did had some great winnings! Look for instances at my winning supertoto tickets!

Where did it go wrong?

Most of the time it was just pure discipline!  Forgetting my own bankrule management, placing impulsive bets, betting on markets not known to me.
The combination of the 3 is killing.

What did I do correct?

I did manage to set up a bankroll management.
I never played with money needed for real live expenses.
I do understand how bookmakers work and what the odds do mean!
I'm not addicted! I can do without sports betting but I have to admit that I do find it a challenge!

The current situation!

I do have a limited bankroll for the moment at 2 online bookmakers. In my case this is Unibet and Bwin. At the moment of writing my bankroll is: 48,24 euros.
Do the fact that I live in a country where sportsbetting is allowed and more or less controled by the government only a limited set of bookies is available. But I'm satisfied with these 2. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. I'll have to do with them.

Unfortunately my online wallet is empty. I'm willing to fund this wallet once more this year, but that will be it.

Where do we go from here?

Betting

I will limit the sports I will be regularly betting on to 2! Football (soccer) and Golf.
I will again start with recording my bets in a spreadsheet.
I will do a research before placing the bets between the odds my 2 bookmakers are offering for most bets. Due to minimal bet rules on Bwin, this will not be possible for the system bets I will be placing. Minimal bet @ Unibet is only 0,10 euros, while Bwin has a minimal bet of 1 euro.

Golf:
Here I will limit myself to only tournaments. Place or win bets are allowed on both the PGA and European tour. Per tournament max 1 win and 2 place bets. In general it will be, 0,5 euros for the win, 1 euro for a place bet. So max 2,5 euros per tournament. 5 euros per week.
When it is a co-sanctioned tournament, it will be 2 win and 4 place bets.

Football:
Here I will allow myself some freedom.
I will however minimalize the competitions I will select my games from to: Bundesliga, Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A, Eredivisie, La liga, the Jupiler Pro League and cup matches of these leagues. Off course, the Champions League and European league are also valid markets.

I still need to work out which bets I will play. 

American Football:
Only NFL, only 1 bet per week, with an ante of 1 euro. Maximum 2 games combined on the ticket.

Major sporting tournaments:
Will depend on the tournament and sport type. But these will not be ruled out.

I just need to stay away from regular competitions in others sports.


Blogging

The only way for me to keep my focus and restrain to my betting rules, is also to blog.
I was doubting about starting a complete new blog, of reviving this one. I decided to re-animate this one, cause it is already know with the search engines.
I will try to write some previews for the bigger sport tournaments and will be updating my stats, profit ans losses and so on.

Also I will try to create a top set of other gambling punter websites which are transparent which their predictions in advance and a result page.
This will be done for Football betting and Golf betting.

Also I will try to work out some betting articles.

Fine-tunning the page lay-out.

Goals

Make a profit on the end of the year, betting wise.
Still blogging at the end of the year.

All things above are just guidelines and will be fine tunned during the year.
Also, things can change due to an increase of the bankroll. I will set-up my betting rule during the year, see what works and what doesn't.

Good luck,
Dremeber