Thursday, July 31, 2014

Matchday 2 bets Jupiler Pro League

Homework for match day 2 is ready. Here are my bets!


Bet typeGamePred.ResultOddsC. Odds
JLP8 1X2Oostende - Anderlecht21,6215,24
Kortrijk - Standard121,3
KRC Genk - Cercle Brugge11,52
Moeskroen - Waasland11,9
Charlerloi - Westerlo1X1,35
Lokeren - Zulte Waregem121,29
Club Brugge - Lierse11,23
AA Gent - KV Mechelen1X1,17
JPL5 RCharlerloi - WesterloHTS1,254,15
AA Gent - KV MechelenHWH1,34
Lokeren - Zulte WaregemHTS1,21
Oostende - AnderlechtO 2.51,72
Moeskroen - WaaslandHTS1,19
JPL CSCharlerloi - Westerlo2-110
JPL2 SPKRC Genk - Cercle BruggeMboyo2,386,43
Oostende - AnderlechtSuarez2,7
JPL2 CSMoeskroen - Waasland1-1747,25
Club Brugge - Lierse2-06,75

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Match day 1: Recap

No winning tickets :(. But I'm proud that I did show some discipline.

JPL8 1X2: I really did underestimate the power of the first home game of a team that promoted. A real surprise to me. Still 29 match days to go, to reach my goal of 4 winning tickets in this betting type.

JPL5 R: Only one incorrect. KAA Gent didn't manage to find the net. I wasn't sure that Gent would win this away game but based on the pre-season matches I did expect at least one goal. But just like the JPL8 1x2 betting type, still 29 rounds to go, to achieve my goal.

JPL CS: Some bad bet from my side. I know that with my betting plan I will have some overlap of matches spread over the tickets and I do know that this one of the more difficult betting types but I should have bet with the correct score on this game.

JPL2 CS: I have to be honest, this is more a lottery than educated betting. No of the 2 correct scores correct! Lokeren even lost the game, but the ticket was already worth less after the 3-0 victory of Standard.

JPL2 SP: While Standard won 3-0 not a great display of Ezekiel. Probably to much thinking about a transfer than interested in playing a game. Castillo on the other hand did what I expected. Also here 29 round to go, to make a conclusion.

Stats about the JPL so far:
Home wins: 6 (75%)    (Overall: 47,11%)
Draws: 1 (12,5 %)     (Overall: 24,96%)
Away wins: 1 (12,5 %) (Overall: 27,93%)

Home team scores: 6 (75%)   (Overall: 78,61%)
Away team scores: 3 (37,5%) (Overall: 68,00%)
Both team scores: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 53,40%)

No goals: 1 (12,5%)         (Overall:  6,79%)
Over 0.5 goals: 7 (87,5%)   (Overall: 93,21%)
Over 1.5 goals: 6 (75%)     (Overall: 77,33%)
Over 2.5 goals: 3 (37,5%)   (Overall: 50,59%)
Over 3.5 goals: 2 (25%)     (Overall: 31,07%)

Most frequent scores:
2-0: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 9,25%)
3-1: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 5,85%)
0-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 6,79%)
1-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 9,50%)
3-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 3,48%)
2-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 9,25%)

Up to match day 2!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Friday, July 25, 2014

Matchday 1: Jupiler Pro League Betting plan

My bets for matchday 1!!

Bet typeGamePred.ResultOddsC. Odds
JLP8 1X2Standard - Charlerloi11,3724,64
Waasland - Club Brugge21,8
Cercle Brugge - AA GentX21,24
Lierse SK - KV Oostende121,31
Westerlo - Sp. Lokeren22,15
KV Mechelen - KRC Genk121,31
Anderlecht - Moeskroen11,2
Zulte Waregem - KV Kortrijk11,82
JPL5 RKV Mechelen - KRC GenkBTS1,654,16
Anderlecht - MoeskroenO 2.51,56
Cercle Brugge - AA GentATS1,18
Standard - CharlerloiHWH1,19
Waasland - Club BruggeATS1,15
JPL CSCercle Brugge - AA Gent1-299
JPL2 SPStandard - Charlerloi2-0872
Westerlo - Sp. Lokeren1-29
JPL2 CSStandard - CharlerloiEzekiel2,357,05
Waasland - Club BruggeCastillo3

BTS: Both teams score
ATS: Away team scores
HWH: Home team wins at least one half

Good luck,
Dremeber

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

A new season, a new start!

A new start!!!

Yep, we are going to give it another shot. This time I will try to focus only on
Belgium's Jupiler Pro League.Why? It is the competition I know best.
Besides this I will of course play the supertoto.

Last week I did fund my Unibet account and already had a nice ticket on the 
supertoto, paying out just above 160 Euro. Giving me enough funds to fund my 
game plan for this season.

The idea is the following.
Per match day I will play 5 1 euro bets on the Jupiler Pro League (JPL).
So 30 matches, 5 bets per match day, will result in a total ante of 150 euros.
The 5 bets will have a predefined set-up.
Bet 1: Combo
Bet 2: 1 correct score
Bet 3: Random 5 bet combo
Bet 4: Combo 2 correct scores
Bet 5: 2 scoring players (if offered)

Some explanations:
Bet 1 will be a combo on the all the matches. I will not only go for the regular 
1 X 2, but will also include 1X, 2X of 12 on this combo to improve my winning 
changes. I hope that the average odds will be around 14 Euro. Winning 4 of 5 
of these will result in a profit for the bet type.

Bet 2 is a plain correct score bet. I did some analyse on this one, which I 
will post later. Average odds will be around 7 Euro. Meaning that 5 winning bets 
would seal the deal this type of betting. Should be possible.

Bet 3 consist of 5 combo bets. Bets included can be clean sheet, home teams 
scores, away teams scores, both team score, over and under bets and other types 
of bets. This bet type will probable have the lowest average odds. My estimation 
is that 6 or 7 should make it profitable.

Bet 4 is the dark horse within the betting type. I will combine 2 correct scores 
on this slip. This bet type will have the highest average odds. Even so high that 
probably 1 winning ticket should mean a profit for the bet type.

Bet 5 (if offered) would be combining two scoring players. No idea if this will 
be offered within Belgium (we only have a few legalized bookmakers). At the moment
of writing Unibet isn't offering it, nor BWIN, bingoal, e-lotto or others. If not
offered within 3 match days, I will see if I convert the bet type, to another 
set-up of if I'm going to play only 4 bets per week.

So this plan is set, now comes the difficult part! Sticking to it!!!!
Per betting type, there is also an algorithm to increase the stakes. If the profit 
for a betting type exceeds the increased stake for the rest of the season than 
the current stake will be increased by 1.
For example: after match day 10, the profit for bet type 1 is 62 euros and the 
current stake is 1, than the algorithm would be as followed: 62 > 10 + 40. 
In stead of 30 euro for the regular season, the combined stake would be 50 euros
 but due to the fact that the profit already exceeds this I'm still assured of a 
profit for the betting type.

On the other side I will keep playing the supertoto. Here I do only have a 
restriction, max 2 tickets running and no ticket may exceed 6.40 euros. 1 other
 big win, should secure the profit for this. Don't forget that I'm already 
having a profit of 145,72 euros on the supertoto for this betting run.

Of course I will keep statistics on these bets and will try to post them on a 
regular basis.

Keep in mind that sports betting should be fun, only a few of us can make a
 profit and even less can make it living out of it.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tickets I'm proud of!