Posts

My official 2017-2018 betting season starts at the first of September.

My official 2017-2018 betting season starts at the first of September.
I’m still doubting if I will continue to blog about sports betting on this blog, create a new blog or just stop completely with blogging. We will see which direction life brings me. The problem about blogging that it does cost a lot of time.
If I do continue blogging I do need to bring this blog to a higher level and most of all improve my writing skills!!
Like told in the beginning my betting season starts on the first of September. It is not that I’m not betting now, but more playing around in a sandbox. Trying out some new betting strategies and trying to set up a betting plan for the new season.
Why do I start the first of September. By starting then, I hope to have some more insight in the competitions, balancing the teams and most of all cause the transfer market is closed.
The betting bank for the new season will be €150. Like each year the aim to make a profit J, which is harder than it looks. For sure cause I …

Tips and Picks: Round 7 Play-off Jupiler Pro League

4 more rounds to play before the season in Belgium ends.
At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by the 1X2 bets. Don't know what the problem is there. I decided to continue to play them, to have a complete historical record for next years play-offs.

I would be nice to score another Acca. I did hope on 3 acca's, so one to go.
As always all my bets are placed at:

My 1X2 tips and bets for this round:


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP7CharleroiClub Brugge1X21222G21SP7MechelenWaasland-Beveren1X211,510-1SP7KortrijkRoeselare1X211,7610-1SP7LokerenMouscron1X211,8510-1SP7St TruidenStandard1X213,5X0-1SP7OostendeGent1X213,45X0-1SP7AnderlechtWaregem1X211,2810-1SP7GenkEupen1X211,2810-1
The Over/Under market stand on a small profit for the moment, let's continue this momentum.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenO/U12,08U0-1SP7KortrijkRoeselareO/U11,48O0-1SP7LierseUnionO/U11,94O0-1SP7LokerenMouscro…

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP6GenkKortrijk1X211,3511G1,350,35SP6LokerenEupen1X213,0521F0-1SP6WaaslandSt Truiden1X212,4512F0-1SP6LierseMechelen1X2131xF0-1SP6GentAnderlecht1X212,72XF0-1SP6OostendeCharleroi1X214,221F0-1SP6MouscronRoeselare1X214,321F0-1SP6Club BruggeWaregem1X211,4511G1,450,45
In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP6StandardUnionO/U11,57OOG1,570,57SP6LokerenEupenO/U11,74OOG1,740,74SP6WaaslandSt TruidenO/U12,02OUF0-1…

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

# ante# Pay-outP/LROI#GFOveralCS3733,5-3,5-9,46%3743310,81%1X23929,98-9,02-23,13%39132633,33%BTS3229,5-2,5-7,81%32161650,00%O/U2323,680,682,96%23121152,17%Yankee CS4,40-4,4-100,00%4040,00%4 BTS59,64,692,00%51420,00%4 1X250-5-100,00%5050,00%4 O/U513,268,26165,20%51420,00%150,4139,52-10,88-7,23%1504710331,33%

I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in we…

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP5RoeselareKortrijk1X212,722G2,71,7-10,03SP5StandardWaasland-Beveren1X211,5812F0-1-11,03SP5WaregemGent1X213,35X2F0-1-12,03SP5EupenGenk1X211,952XF0-1-13,03SP5Club BruggeOostende1X211,5211G1,520,52-12,51SP5MechelenSt Truiden1X211,9511G1,950,95-11,56SP5MouscronLokeren1X213,55XXG3,552,55-9,01SP5AnderlechtCharleroi1X211,4612F0-1-10,01SP5RoeselareKortrijkBTS11,65JJG1,650,65-9,36SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenBTS12,05NNG2,051,05-8,31SP5UnionLierseBTS12,08NJF0-1-9,31SP5WaregemGentBTS11,9NNG1,90,9-8,41SP5EupenGenkBTS11,54JJG1,540,54-7,87SP5Club BruggeOostendeBTS11,98NJF0-1-8,87SP5MechelenSt TruidenBTS12,08NNG2,081,08-7,79SP5AnderlechtCharleroiBTS11,88NNG1,880,88-6,91SP5RoeselareKortrijkO/U11,84OOG1,840,84-6,07SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenO/U12,14UUG2,141,14-4,93SP5WaregemGentO/U12,18OUF0-1-5,93SP5Club BruggeOostendeO/U11,…