I made a loss of 5 euros by trying some live betting. When Werder Bremen was up 4-1 I made my first mistakes, the second was made when Bremen got a red card and Hoffenheim scored the 4-4! Lesson learned stay of Live Betting!!!!
On the combo side, I had 3 winning combos out of 8. Good for a combined weekend profit of 28,71 euros, the losses on live betting included! For me, and probably for a lot of us, the surprise of the weekend was the loss of Arsenal against Hull City. Combo 2 on Saturday didn't had a chance with the unexpected loss of Hertha and the draw of Juventus.
Sunday, I made the mistake to have faith in Tottenham, I had the idea that they could turn things around but they are in a down spiral! This error screwed up one combo, the other one didn't had a chance with 2 games out of 3 incorrect!
The plans for next week. I will play the uefa cup SuperToto and Supertoto 15. Supertoto 15 has to be played before Thursday so that I am entitled to the 10% discount Unibet is offering. I will made 4 combos for the CL. 2 for Tuesday and 2 for Wednesday. Probably I will play 4 combos on the uefa cup. And then the weekend is again knocking on the door.
On Wednesday I will also post the recap of September!
Make sure that you look on the net for the goal from Dembele from AZ. What a beauty!
So here we go with the Sunday bets:
Starting with the lowest combined odds.
Combo 1: Combined Odd: 7,84 -> Lost
Teams involved: KRC Genk and Tottenham
Yepm this one is tricky. Genk cannot afford to loose another game but they will face Mouscron and for some reason or the other they always have it difficult against them. Never less I'm confident that they will take 3 points home. The some lines are valid for Tottenham. They can't keep loosing or can they?
Combo 2: Combined odd: 17,38 ->Lost
Teams involved: Man. City, Napoli and Roda JC
Such high combined odds for a combo of only 3 games says it all. I have no doubt about Roda JC (away @ Sparta) and Manchester City (away @ Wigan). Napoli is another story. But at the moment they are in third place in the Serie A, while Bologna is third from the bottom so it is possible.
Combo 3: Combined odd: 39,40 -> Won
Teams involved: Lecce, Palermo, Ajax, Almeria and Valencia.
Don't be fooled by the odds. I place my bet per accident as a quintet. Meaning that it are more or less 5 combos of 4. Meaning that if one teams doesn't win I still make a profit on the other hand if 2 teams fail to do what I predict I do loose 5 euros. Lecce plays at home against Cagliari (last in the serie A) and Palermo plays against Reggina (second from the bottom). Ajax should win at home against Vitesse, while Valencia should be capable of beaten Deportivo at home. The last game in this strange combo is Almeria @ home against Huelva.
So here we go with the Friday bet:
Friday Combo: Combined odd: 2,96 -> Lost
Teams involved: Schalke 04 and RSC Anderlecht
Schalke 04 plays away at Fc Koln. Koln still have to impress me and I hope that they will not excel this weekend. The other game is Standard Liege vs RSCA Anderlecht. The two big favorites for the Belgium title. I will play an X2 for this game. Anderlecht is out on revenge after the chance less defeat during the Supercup. Standard probably will already have the Uefa cup against Everton in the back of their mind, willingly or not! Therefor I will bet on X2.
Saturday Combo 1: Combined odd: 3,12 -> Won
Teams involved: FC Twente, Aston Villa and Werder Bremen
I decided to add some more safe combo during the weekend and this is my first one. The most difficult game to predict is the one between Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim currently is second in the Bundesliga, while Werder is standing on spot number 7. Both teams are in form but I'm giving Werder more chance. Twente will face De Graafschap at home, which doesn't have a strong out reputation, thats why my money is on FC Twente. The last game is Aston Villa vs Sunderland. Call it a gut feeling.
Saturday Combo 2 : Combined odd: 4,31 -> Lost
Teams involved: Hamburger SV, Manchester United, Arsenal, Club Brugge and Lyon
5 matches and only an odd of 4,31 says enough I guess. This combo is based on 5 big teams playing at home. A surprise is always possible but the all these teams should be more than capable of keeping the three points at home! To be complete all the games: Hamburger SV - Gladbach, Man U - Bolton, Arsenal - Hull City, Club Brugge - Westerlo and Lyon - Nancy.
Edit: WTF, Arsenal did loose at home against Hull City. Didn't see this coming. Bugger.
Saturday Combo 3: Combined odd: 6,93 -> Lost
Teams involved: Hertha BSC, AZ and Juventus
The most dangerous game is this rather risky combo is Willem II - AZ. My money is on AZ. They gave an excellent performance last weekend against PSV. I know they have the quality but they are not consistent enough but I'm sure that they will take the 3 points back home to Alkmaar. Hertha should not have any problems with Cottbus, last in the Bundesliga. Juventus on the other hand will win in Sampdoria.
Saturday Combo 4: Combined odd: 5,62 -> Won
Teams involved: Auxerre, Villareal and Real Madrid
I think that I don't have to explain why I pick Villareal, away against Sporting Gijon, and Real Madrid, away at Betis. Auxerre is hopefully my accumulator for this combo. They will face Le Havre at home. Early in the season already a relegation match, if Auxerre wants to prologue their stay in Ligue 1 they will have to win these games at home!
Check back Saturday evening for the Sunday bets.
A: the ante is 5 euro
B: it is not a combo.
Unibet is offering a odd of 2,15 if Wesley Sonck scores. I consider this a value bet! Why? Cause Sonck is at moment in really good shape. Bailly of Genk did some magical thing to withheld Sonck from his first goal of the season. Secondly Akpala, his partner is crime is suspended. Thirdly: I consider Club Brugge at lost stronger then KV Mechelen and I expect some free kicks for Club Brugge, which are excellent chances!
Come on Wesley don't let me down!
Cross your fingers,
For Wednesday again 2 combos. Both with a high pay-out so it is a gamble. Also due to time constraints no explanation. Sorry!
Combo 1: Combined odds: 18,32
Teams involved: Hamburger SV, Sevilla, Club Brugge, AC Milan, Manchester City and Mallorca
Combo 1: Combined odds: 10,21
Teams involved: Atletico Madrid, AS Roma and Valencia
Here we go:
Combo 1: combined odds: 4,81
Teams involved: AZ, FC Den Bosch, Nantes and Werder Bremen
AZ is confident after their win over PSV and they will continue this line this evening against Heracles. Fc Den Bosch is one of the tittle candidates in the Dutch Jupiler league, I expect nothing else than a home win. Nantes and Werder Bremen have away games. Bremen has an easy game against Ezgebirge and Nantes will play at Cretiel, both feasible teams for the team from the Bundesliga.
Combo 2: combined odds: 3,28
Teams involved: Eintracht Frankfurt, Arsenal and Manchester United
Arsenal and Man U should have no problems with beating Sheffield United and Middlesbrough. Frankfurt has to face Hasta Rostock, 9th in the second Bundesliga, at home. Frankfurt still has to win a home game this seasin and I hope that they achieve this today!
Edit: Over before it all started. Frankfurt missed a penalty in the last minute. Fuckers, lol!
The Supertoto for tomorrow and this weekend are shown below. First the one for the weekend and then the one for tomorrow:
Come back tomorrow morning for the results and my bets for the Wednesday games.
The start on Friday was excellent with one combo played and one combo won.
The success story continued on Saturday. The downside was that only one of the three combos was a winner but on the positive side the winning combo has the highest combined odds of the 3. It could have been better but
On the supertoto side also everything was going good enough with 6 correct games out of 7.
Sunday was a little bit of a cooler. The fun combo has an excellent start but Everton crushed it, so the Marseille wasn’t important anymore (luckily). Tottenham, yep Tottenham again, blew the second combo, while my fourth combo was chance less (0 out of 3). The last combo (3) for Sunday wasn’t so bad but Sevilla weren’t capable of taking the 3 points home.
On the SuperToto side, I had 2 more games incorrect, so I ended up with 2 tickets of 11 out of 14, good for a pay-out of 1,16€ per ticket (not enough cause the investment was 3,20€). Congrats to the one who cracked the supertoto. He/She was the only one with 14 correct games, good for a pay-out above 112.000€.
I was hard not to create another combo for the Sunday evening games but this is against me own rules. The rule says that I’m not allowed to create last minute combo cause most of the time, these bets are placed to recuperate lost money. To bad cause if would have been a winning combo. Maybe my combo for the Sunday games where to risky.
My betting plans for this week are quiet simple. Tonight and tomorrow I will concentrate on filling in the supertoto. Remember that a lot bookies give a 10% discount if you fill in the supertoto before Thursday, if you do this 10 times in a season you will have your 11th supertoto for free. Also there is on extra Supertoto this week for the midweek games in Italy, England and Spain.
On Tuesday I will see if I'm going to make a combo of 2 for the midweek games and from Wednesday on I will concentrate on the weekend games.
I also hope that you all liked the way I presented the combos on Sunday, cause it is my intention to do it like this. So first a little explanation about the combo(s) to end with a picture if it is more than one combo! Feedback is appreciated, both on the combo and presentation.
Also there are still possibilities with the Supertoto. At the moment we are halfway and I have 6 out of 7 games correct. Only Arsenal did let me down. From the 7 games of tomorrow 3 of have them have 2 correct outcomes, so I am confident!
Let's take a look at the combos for Sunday! First I will give my explanation and at the bottom of the post, you will find all combos visualized (you can enlarge the picture by clinking it)!
Combo 1: Combined odds: 59,34
Team involed: Nancy, Marseille, De Graafschap, FC Twente, SC Heereveen and Everton.
This combo can be called my fun combo for the weekend. It includes 6 games and has a combined odd of 59,34. I can explain this one, it is just a gut feeling!
Combo 2: Combined odds: 9,11
Teams involved: Standard Liege, Barcelona, Sampdoria, Tottenham and Juventus
I think that this one has to most chance of being the winning combo. Okay, it includes 5 games but still it is a feasable one. Standard Liege should not have any problems with Tubize and Tottenham will have an excellent chance of winning their first game of the season. Also Barcelona is desperate for a win, so the away game to Gijon comes at a excellent time. Juventus has an away game at Cagliari, who are under pressure after loosing the first 2 games of the season. I think that Sampdoria has the key for this combo.
Combo 3: Combined odds: 8,87
Teams involved: AC Milan, Sevilla, Valencia and Fiorentina
Looking at the combined odds this combo should have to most chance to survive but the games still have to be played. After 2 games, AC Milan is still chasing their first win, heck they don't even have one point. I hope that Lazio will go home pointless. Fiorentina will host the game against Bologna. I expect that this game will be the key for this combo cause I expect nothing else than a victories from Valencia (against Osasuna) and Sevilla (away at Real Betis).
Combo 4: Combined odds: 29,04
Teams involved: PSG, Hoffenheim and Dortmund, Hamburger SV
Very high odds for a combo with only 3 games. PSG has a difficult away game to St Etienne but I think that they can take the 3 points home with them. There is a lot of pressure on St. Etienne and that would do them any good. Hamburg has the away game to Wolfsburg in front of them. Playing away at Wolfsburgs is never easy but with a victory Hamburger SV will see themselves back at the top of the league. The key to this combo is the expected draw between Hoffenheim and Dortmund. The gap between these teams is only one point at the moment. Normally I never bet on a draw but something tells me that an X is going to be correct.
For this weekend I have planned 8 combos. One for Friday, 3 for Saturday and 4 for Sunday.
Besides planning my bets I'm also working on my stats page and BR movement page, which I hope will be finished this evening. So when you come back tomorrow I will make sure that you can find the links to both pages in one of the right frames. Also I will post my bets for Sunday on Saturday evening. At the moment I'm still not sure if I will play the Supertoto or not. Probably I will, if so it will be posted before noon tomorrow!
Had some problems with creating tables in my blog and to tired to write it all out, so you will have to do it with the jpeg!
As promised my supertoto 14 ticket. I became a 3.20 euro ticket. It is hard to stop ticking boxes when you are busy with it.
Come back tomorrow for my Sunday bets!
Sorry not to have posted my bets for the Uefa cup first round matches but it were last minutes bets and with a son of 24 days old it isn't always easy to do what you had planned.
I made around 10 combo, good for an ante of 22 euro. My complete BR. Okay, I admit I went a little bit overboard but it paid off big time!
At the moment 2 combos are already won and there is one very nice combo between them. My 1,80 euro became 101,80 euro. I predicted the wins of the following teams within 1 combo correctly: AC Milan, Spartak Moskou, Besiktas, Ajax, Saint Etienne, Braga, CSKA Moscow and Tottenham.
Another successful combo was the predicted win of Spartak Moscow, Galatasaray, Nancy, CSKA Moscos and Tottenham, good for a pay-out of 12,40 euro.
Valencia is winning and only a few minutes to go, which will means that I have 11 out of 12 correct games for the Supertoto. At the moment the pay-out is 4,99 euro but that will increase a little bit. And cause it was a ticket of 6,40 euro it will be multiplied by 2. So another little profit.
Needless to say that I look forward to the weekend.
BR at the moment: 114,29 euros!!!!
If you have a sportsbetting blog and want to exchange links, drop me a comment. Please also inform me if I did remove your blog by accident! I did check it and the commenting thing is still working (had to check it myself :)). Also other comments are welcome!
Also, there will probably very juicy odds for a home win of Marseille against Liverpool and for Atletico Madrid winning at PSV. But my gut feeling says to stay of these games, so I will.
Due to time constraint no explanation this time.
Also, as an expection I did put 1 euro on Tottenham for this evening. If they win I have one combo for free for tomorrow :).
Because 4 of my 7 selected games will be played on Tuesday, I will create 3 combo. 2 combos with 2 Tuesday games and one combo with the 3 Wednesday games.
Combo 1: combined odds: 3,66
Teams involved: Werder Bremen and Shaktar
Combo 2: combined odds: 1,63
Teams involved: AS Roma and Barcelona
Combo 3: combined odds: 3,51
Teams involved: Celtic Glasgow, Manchester United and Arsenal
Money at stake: 3 euro
Potential Pay-out: 8,08 euro
Potential profit: 5,08 euro
Outstanding bets including these: 13
BR after these bets: 23,26 euro
For this weekend I'm feeling a little bit adventurous. I will be playing 5 combos. 3 combos with 4 games in it and 2 combos with 3 games. Only the first combo can be considered a safe one, the other 4 will have more risk involved. But it is time to bend the curve to a winning curve. No risk, no glory! And lets be honest all bets are a risk.
I will describe the combos below in risk order. The one with the lowest risk, and of course the lowest payout, at the top, the one with the most risk at the bottom. For once it will be not enough to have one combo correct, if Combo 1 is the only one.
Combo 1: combined odds: 2.96
Teams involved: Heereveen, Barcelona, Lyon, Inter
This combo already kicks off on Friday evening with the predicted victory of Heereveen at home against Heracles Almelo. All three other games are on Saturday evening. I expect that Barcelona will have no problems with Racing Santander. Lyon should be capable of waking over Nice and Inter will win their first home game of the season against Catania.
Edit: Heereveen failed to beat Heracles at home. After a blitz start it was 2-0 after 12 minutes. After missing one chance after the other on of the oldest football rules kicked in. We your team misses the chances the other won't.
Combo 2: combined odds: 5.01
Teams involved: Juventus, Bayern Munich, Sevilla, Anderlecht
Juventus host the game against Udinese and I just cannot imagine that Juventus will loose their first home game of the season against a team like Udinese. Anderlecht plays at Mons and will take the three poinst home with a victory with at least a 2 goal difference. Sevilla plays their first home game of the season against Sporting Gijon and will keep the points at home. Bayern Munich faces an always difficult out game at Koln. Koln always plays better against big teams but I think that they are chance less against Bayern M..
Combo 3: combined odds: 7.76
Teams involved: Newcastle, AZ, GBA, PSG
This is my most risk full combo with 4 teams involved. 4 games, all 4 out of another country. AZ will have to beat ADO Den Haag to keep away the crisis which lasted the complete previous season. GBA can be consider the banker in this combo, with the team now complete and getting onto steam they should have no problems with Roeselare. PSG should easily win at Nantes, which is filling in the last position in Ligue 1. Newcastle plays at home against Hull City. No problems expected here for Newcastle.
Combo 4: combined odds: 7.82
Teams involved: AS Roma, AA Gent, KV Mechelen
This combo is mainly based on the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. AA Gent is one of the teams in form and will visit Mouscron, who is leading the championship. But there previous games were all against relegation candidates. KV Mechelen will face Tubize at home. The main target for both teams this season is to stay out of the relegation zone. I tip a win for KV Mechelen with the support of their magnificent home crowd! AS Roma does close this combo with a away game at Palermo. After the mediocre start of the season Roma is out on revenge and will take the points home with them!
Combo 5: combined odds: 11.08
Teams involved: Monaco, Atletico Madrid, Everton
To be honest, this combo is based on a gut feeling. So I can completely understand that you probably don't want to copy this one. But it is a not a swing in the dark. Everton will visit Stoke, one of the new teams within the Premier league. I consider Atletico Madrid one of the outsiders for the Spanish title and I will hope that they will back-up my feeling with a victory at Valladolid. As Monaco will face Lorient at home, I don't see any reason not to include them in this combo!
Money at stake: 5 euro
Pottential Pay-out: 34,63 euro
Pottential profit: 29,63 euro
Outstanding bets including these: 14
BR after these bets: 22,25 euro
The small win was destroyed by the amazing injury time of Denmark, which was really a surprise to me.
But hey, the weekend is near. So enough new chances :).
I just printed out all the games from the major European Leagues, so tomorrow morning and after work tomorrow you will find my new bets for the weekend.
Also please be so kind to give my blog a boost on the renewed BlogTopListing, by clicking the button at the bottom below.
France - Serbia: 1
Portugal - Denmark: 1
Sweden - Hungary: 1
Odds: 3,72 (and this is my safest one)
Finland - Germany: 2
Lithuania - Austria: 2
N. Ireland - Tsjechie: 2
Croatia - England: 2
Turky - Belgium: 2
Odds: 18,69 (would be great if this one holds)
I also added 3 more bets to my season bets. I put on euro on the fact that PSV will take its fifth title in a row in the Eredivisie, that Sporting Gijon will relegate and that Atletico Madrid will end in the top 4 in La Primera Division.
Besides that I will post my bets for this weekend later on today or tomorrow morning.
Here you can find the 1X2, BTTS, Over/Under and correct score predictions for round 19 of the Premier League and round 20 of the Jupiler Pro...
4 more rounds to play before the season in Belgium ends. At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by t...
For once I did my homework. At least that’s my assumption. Lately I have been playing around with the Poisson distribution model to p...
Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures. For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a ...