Sunday, September 16, 2012

Weekend recap

It was a bad weekend. Played 5 coupons and on none of them did I get into the money. One tickets is still running and appears to be promising. But due to the fact that I wrote this down, it will of course fail miserably.

Total ante for the weekend was 12,8 euros.
On Friday I did had my worst ticket with only 5/12 correct. The supertoto 14 on Saturday was a little bit better, but one mistake to many. The extra coupon on Saturday was also not good enough with only 7/11.

For the moment Sunday is still looking promising, with the second extra ticket on which I have 5 out of 5, with 3 matches to go. At half time, 2 are still correct. The last game is only 17 minutes underway.
If I do manage to get 8/8 I probably will end the weekend in green figure and it also will minimize my losses for the month. The start on Sunday was again a failure with only 7/12.

Lots of tickets ahead this week with the Champions league and the Europa League kicking off.

Update:
The lost coupon was a good one. 8 out of 8 correct. Unfortunately many other managed to do the same. Still a pay-out of just above 20 euros. This means that I ended the weekend with a profit 7,80 euros.
Still down for the month but that's my own fault with the expensive tickets for the first WC qualification matches. Shouldn't happen again with the help of my bankroll management.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Supertoto 14: 14.09.2012

Here we are again. The registration for the supertoto of this week has been closed.
I did only played one coupon of 1,60 euros.

The turnover for this week is 35193,7 euros. This is a 3000 euro higher than average for this year (32490 euro). There are 9521 coupons registered, this is a little bit above average for this year (9394). The average ante per coupon is 3,70 euro.

Price pot according to groups (all in euros):
Group a (14/14): 13102,11 (single winner: 63102,11)
Group b (13/14): 6334,87
Group c (12/14): 5982,93
Group d (11/14): 7038,74

If there are more than 7039 tickets within group d, there will be no pay-out. For group c the limit is set on 5983 tickets.

Luckily for me there are no matches from la Ligue 1 on the coupon, which increases my chances.

Here is my coupon for today:
Supertoto 14 14.09.2012

Good luck,
Dremeber

Friday, September 14, 2012

Supertoto Extra: 13.09.2012

The registration has closed. There are 2040 coupons registered and the turnover is 6239,4 euros.
This means that the pot for group a, all correct, for this evening is around 3144,66 and for group b, 1347,71.

12 matches on the coupon and (if I'm not mistaken) for the first time a match included from the Belgiums Jupiler League.
I did register a coupon of 2,40 euros with 3 halve-hedges and one full hedge.

Supertoto 13.09.2012
Result update: Only 5 out of 12 correct. So a bad start of the weekend. The positive thing is that it only can get better. This could be my worst extra coupon ever :(.
But probably I was alone. No tickets with all correct, even no tickets with 11 out of 12! Didn't see this happening before. 2 tickets with 10 out 0f 12 correct, good for 1572,33 euros per ticket. Only 26 tickets within group b (9/12) good for 51,84 euros.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Bankroll management: Superoto style

Bankroll management is utmost important. This speaks for itself. Bankroll management will not increase your chances of becoming a winning player but cannot be ignored. Your profit will not become higher, by using a suited bankroll management, but it should
decrease your overall loss, for sure in the darker periods of time.

Rarely people do start with a bankroll management when starting with gambling on sports.
I my opinion this is also impossible, cause I believe that bankroll management should be based on statistics. And not general statistics but your own statistics. Meaning that your bankroll management should be tweaked once in a while. Due to the fact that stats can change a lot in the beginning when recording them, bankroll management should be evaluated frequently. After some time, when you have enough stat it should be tweaked less often.

Due to the fact that my statistics are relatively limited in amount (only 27 bets), I decided to evaluate my bankroll management after each 5 bets, these are my bechmarks.
When I have recorded 50 bets, I will change this to every 10 bets. When I have recorded 100 bets I will benchmark my bankroll at the beginning of each month (which I think should be the minimum).

But how do you do bankroll management in combination with supertoto bets?
Firstly you need to understand that there is a (big) difference between betting on a sports toto than regular sports betting. In contrast to regular sports betting the percentage of winning bets are smaller, but the ROI should be/is higher.
This need to be kept in mind.

The bankroll management in this case can be better compared with the bankroll management of a poker player only playing tournaments than with a fellow sports bettor. Long loosing streaks are not uncommon in poker nor in playing on the supertoto or any kind of toto.
Your bankroll should be capable of surviving such a loosing streak(s).

In my opinion your bankroll management should be determined by your own statistics in combination with how much risk you are willing to take.
So my bankroll management isn't per se suitable for you, cause you can have much better statistics or are by nature a bigger gambler than me.

That’s why I did introduce 3 types of bankrolls for myself.
- Firstly I have my current bankroll, which is all the money in my Supertoto bank account;
- secondly I have my threshold bankroll, which is the money I need according to my statistic to survive a very dark period;
- and last but not least there is my playing bankroll, which is the general bankroll decreased with the threshold bankroll.

How did I determine my threshold bankroll?
First let's take a look at my biggest loosing streak so far (my darkest period as I like to call it). My darkest period lasted for 13 supertotos until it was broken by my second biggest win ever.
During this loosing streak I did loose 54,4 euros. So my threshold bankroll always should be capable of sustaining such a loosing streak again.

In general my average wager per coupon for this year is 4,48 euros, let’s round this to 4,50 euros.
I always want to have 15 more shots at the jackpot when my playing bankroll dried out. Meaning that my threshold bankroll is 15 times 4,50 = 67,5 euros.
I believe that with this amount I will give myself a decent chance of turning the tides and creating a new playing bankroll.

My playing bankroll
The determination of my playing bankroll is quit simple. It is my current bankroll decreased with my threshold bankroll.
Playing bankroll = current bankroll - 67,5 euros.
So the actual bankroll management should take place on this playing bankroll.

My golden rule is that one bet never may be higher than 15% of my playing bankroll at the moment of evaluating my playing bankroll.
Maximum bet = 15% of the playing bankroll at benchmark time.

This way my risk management is determined by my playing bankroll and not by the mental state at the moment of placing the bet. It also allows myself to take more risks if the playing bankroll is higher.

The bankroll management
The real bankroll management starts when I need to need to use my threshold bankroll before the next benchmark is reached. So once when my playing bankroll is smaller than my threshold bankroll + 5 * average ante. If I switch my benchmarks to monthly benchmarks I need to re-evaluate this number 5.
From that moment on it is simple. The maximum allowed bet is 15% of the current bankroll (at the moment of the benchmark) with a minimum of 0,8 euros (allowing myself 3 halve-hedges). Statistically I should make a profit with 15 bets.

Benchmark moments
As stated in the beginning I introduce benchmark moments in my bankroll management.
Each time when such a benchmark moment occurs the threshold bankroll and playing bankroll will be recalculated.

This way a new record in loosing streaks is taking into account with the calculation of the threshold bankroll, which should increase.
Also if I do take more risks due to the fact that my playing bankroll has increased, this will increase the threshold bankroll, cause it is based on the average ante.

Cashing in
Bankroll management does not only means that it puts restrictions on your bets it also should dictate the moment when you have to cash and preferably also the amount you should cash.

By cashing in I mean to withdraw money out of the current bankroll to an overall gambling account or the bank account.

Why?
How higher your bankroll is, the more appealing it is to take more risks. This can result placing higher bets or by placing bets out of your field of expertise.

I will cash in at a benchmark moment, if my playing bankroll covers more than 35 average bets.
So if 35 times average ante is higher than my playing bankroll I will cash in.
The amount I will cash-in will be flexible but will always be at least the amount of the determined threshold bankroll but may be more. After cashing in, the playing bankroll should cover at least 15 times the average bet. And the benchmark should be re-calculated. Within this recalculation the cash-in variable is ignored.

Some examples:

Cause an example says more than 50 words:
At the moment my current bankroll is 114 euros.
My average ante = 4,5
My biggest loosing streak = 13

This give as bankroll management until the next benchmark:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = 46,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 6,97 euros (playing bankroll *0,15)
- Cashing in = N

Suppose that my current bankroll would be 50 euros than it would be as followed:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = -17,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 3,33 euros (current bankroll / 15)
- Cashing in = N

Suppose that the current bankroll would be 250 euros:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = 182,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 27,38 euros (playing bankroll *0,15)
- Cashing in = J
- Minimal amount to be cashed = 67,5 euros

If you reach this part I wan't to thank you for your time, to at least read the complete post
Cheers,
Dremeber

Monday, September 10, 2012

Supertoto: Are you going for gold or for the jackpot

Both things would be great but both require a different strategy. There can be a big difference between gold and the jackpot within the Supertoto. Expecially when playing a supertoto 14!

The average pay-out for a ticket within the supertoto 14, with all 14 matches correct, is between 500 - 1000 euros. Compare this with the guaranteed jackpot of at least 50000 euros for a single winner. A big difference isn't?
Due to the fact that the guaranteed pot for a single winner within the Supertoto Extra is between 5.000 and 10.000 euros, the difference here is of course a lot smaller.

If you are going for 14 correct that you have sufficient information on the internet on which you can make your predictions.
But when playing for the jackpot you need to fully understand that you are not playing against the bookie but against other gamblers. This is for instance why I don't place my coupons on advance on my blog. You my readers and fellow gambler or also my enemies!  Or if I win big, my cash cows :).

Within the supertoto screen you will see, beside statistics about the turnover also a tab called Distibution.
In contract to which many think, this is not a winning percentage, but this how the others ,who have already placed their coupon, predicted the matches on their coupons.

When the coupon is release on monday morning, the distribution should 33 for all columns.
Suppose we that the game Estonia - Romania from last Friday. You can see in the results of this Supertoto 14, that the distribution was 20 - 28 - 52. Meaning that 52% of the tickets registered Romania as the winnner, 20% did see Estonia taking the 3 points and 28% did bet on a draw.
In this example Romania did win with 0 - 2 eliminating 48% of the tickets for the jackpot.

By examining the distribution list and combining this with your own research is the only way of making a chance on the Supertoto Jackpot. The one cannot go without the other!
If you do see, that all your bets, are in line with the biggest number on the distribution list, your chances on the jackpot will be almost nihil!

Happy hunting,
Dremeber

Saturday, September 08, 2012

My bet for the Supertoto Extra 08.09.2012

After the deception of yesterday, we are taking a new shot with the Supertoto Extra of today.
With the supertoto the ROI is much more important than the % of winning tickets.

10 matches on the coupon. 1 coupon played with 16 rows, so a cost price of 1,60 euros.

The turnover for this supertoto extra is 7125,10 euro, meaning that there will be a pot for group a around 3591,05 euros and the pot for group b is 1539,2 euros.

If you are playing also. Good luck.
Probably no bet for the supertoto tomorrow. To much games from unknown divisions for me.

Update: Oops a very bad weekend. Only 4 out of 10 correct. Have to do more research for the Tuesdag WC qualifying matches.
Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, September 07, 2012

Results Supertoto 14 XL 07.09.2012

Well we did start the month with a bummer. I failed to turn a coupon of 19,20 euros into a winning one.
I did end up in Group D, but due to the fact that there is a minimum pay-out of 1 euro and the value for a ticket in group D was only worth 0,49 euros, it is a zero pay-out day.

The 3 games which I had incorrect was:
Montenegro - Poland. I did bet on 1 or 2, but the result was unfortunately a draw.
Hungary - Italy: My prediction for a win for Italy was incorrect.
Iceland - Norway: Didn't see that victory of Iceland coming.

There were 9 winning tickets in Group A, all good for a pay-out of 1424,6 euros.
In group B there were 198 winning tickets good for 21,03 euros.
In the last paying group C there were 1910 tickets, all worth 2,06 euros.
In the unfortunate group D we were with 9506 tickets, at least 50% to much, to a get a pay check.

According tot he distribution, the biggest surprise was the victory of Iceland over Norway, it was only marked at 18% of the tickets. Closely followed by the draw between Hungary and Italy, only marked 22%.

Good luck next time,
Dremeber


Thursday, September 06, 2012

Supertoto Result August 2012

Started the football season with a profit. Nothing more nothing less.
The profit from the supertoto was 81,19 euros.

In total I played 9 supertoto tickets with a combined value of 37,16 euro, which give a ROI of 218%. Not bad.

Only 3 winning tickets, which is 33% of the tickets played.
My biggest pay-out was 102,15 euros.
My biggest supertoto winning tickets of August 2012

Let's hope that September will also result in a profit starting with the World Cup qualifying rounds tomorrow.

Cheers,
Dremeber