Showing posts from April, 2017

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP6GenkKortrijk1X211,3511G1,350,35SP6LokerenEupen1X213,0521F0-1SP6WaaslandSt Truiden1X212,4512F0-1SP6LierseMechelen1X2131xF0-1SP6GentAnderlecht1X212,72XF0-1SP6OostendeCharleroi1X214,221F0-1SP6MouscronRoeselare1X214,321F0-1SP6Club BruggeWaregem1X211,4511G1,450,45
In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP6StandardUnionO/U11,57OOG1,570,57SP6LokerenEupenO/U11,74OOG1,740,74SP6WaaslandSt TruidenO/U12,02OUF0-1…

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

# ante# Pay-outP/LROI#GFOveralCS3733,5-3,5-9,46%3743310,81%1X23929,98-9,02-23,13%39132633,33%BTS3229,5-2,5-7,81%32161650,00%O/U2323,680,682,96%23121152,17%Yankee CS4,40-4,4-100,00%4040,00%4 BTS59,64,692,00%51420,00%4 1X250-5-100,00%5050,00%4 O/U513,268,26165,20%51420,00%150,4139,52-10,88-7,23%1504710331,33%

I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in we…

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP5RoeselareKortrijk1X212,722G2,71,7-10,03SP5StandardWaasland-Beveren1X211,5812F0-1-11,03SP5WaregemGent1X213,35X2F0-1-12,03SP5EupenGenk1X211,952XF0-1-13,03SP5Club BruggeOostende1X211,5211G1,520,52-12,51SP5MechelenSt Truiden1X211,9511G1,950,95-11,56SP5MouscronLokeren1X213,55XXG3,552,55-9,01SP5AnderlechtCharleroi1X211,4612F0-1-10,01SP5RoeselareKortrijkBTS11,65JJG1,650,65-9,36SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenBTS12,05NNG2,051,05-8,31SP5UnionLierseBTS12,08NJF0-1-9,31SP5WaregemGentBTS11,9NNG1,90,9-8,41SP5EupenGenkBTS11,54JJG1,540,54-7,87SP5Club BruggeOostendeBTS11,98NJF0-1-8,87SP5MechelenSt TruidenBTS12,08NNG2,081,08-7,79SP5AnderlechtCharleroiBTS11,88NNG1,880,88-6,91SP5RoeselareKortrijkO/U11,84OOG1,840,84-6,07SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenO/U12,14UUG2,141,14-4,93SP5WaregemGentO/U12,18OUF0-1-5,93SP5Club BruggeOostendeO/U11,…

A profit is a profit

It was a small profit but a profit it was. 6,85 units in total (22,03% ROI)
3 markets colored green.

The Correct score market, delivered 1 correct score prediction, god enough for a profit of 1,5 units.
The over/under market also brought in a small profit, namely 0,84 units.
Finally 1 acca came in, the 4 O/U acca, good for a profit of 12,26 units.

Combine this with relatively small losses and the 1X2 market (-2,45 units), the BTTS market (-2,2 units) and the other acca markets (-3,1 units) and overal we made a profit.

Still disappointed about the 1X2 market. Only 3 out of 8 correct.

As a resume:
week 1: 7,06 units profit
week 2: -9,6 units loss
week 3: -16 units loss
week 4: 6,85 units profit

This week there is a midweek round in the Jupiler Pro League, I will try to post my picks later tonight or tomorrow.


Betting tips Round 4 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

7 rounds to go. 7 rounds time to get back into green figures.
Really believe that the 1X2 market will color green for this round. For the moment the Championship play-offs are really strange with 5 draws out of 8 matches and even only 1 home win. Even compared to the previous Championship play-offs rounds, this way below average.

Below are the 8 bets which should do the trick for me:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP4GentOostende1X211,7310-1SP4CharleroiWaregem1X211,9810-1SP4KortrijkEupen1X212,2810-1SP4LierseWaasland-Beveren1X21210-1SP4LokerenRoeselare1X214,820-1SP4MechelenStandard1X212,7520-1SP4AnderlechtClub Brugge1X212,0810-1SP4GenkMouscron1X211,3310-1
Due to value betting only 3 over/under 2.5 goals bets. The loss here at the moment is 1,29 units, meaning that all 3 should be correct. 2 out of 3 would at least mean green figures for round 2.


The massacre continues :(

Not the weekendI was hoping for. Red lines on all betting types.
There were some strange results, but it should have been better.
Before I was surprised by the high number of no BTS and the high under 2.5 predictions but I'm still keeping the faith and did place the bet according to the Poisson model.
Also I'm looking to do some tweaks. Maybe the play-offs aren't the best competition format to go live with my Poisson Prediction model. So, I'm running again a new test run for the regular competition to see if it really should have delivered a profit in thee regular season.

Besides this I'm also running a test run for the Dutch Eredivisie, to see how the model performs there.
Due to the fact that I have build my model in excel, both test are really times consuming, but it has to be done! Planning a real website for both the Belgium Jupiler Pro League and the Dutch Eredivisie for the start of the new season. The down side will be that this will be in Dutch.
If both si…

Poisson picks round 3: Play-offs Belgium Jupiler Pro League

After the massacre of last week, I'm hoping on a better result for round 3.
I did evaluate the predictions of the last 2 weeks, and compared all 4 Poisson models again but after two round it is still to early to draw conclusion. We all also have to remember that sports betting is more like a marathon and not like the 100 m sprint.

Let's see if we can turn things around:

Poisson Test run: Massacre

I have to be honest. I did expect a profit but it was a complete massacre.
Only one winning market, namely the correct score market.
All red figures in the other markets. But the one which was the most unexpected was the 1X2 market with only 1 correct out of 8.

If I do look at other prediction site, they didn't do much better, if they did.

Overall we are currently presenting these figures:

Poisson pick round 2 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Hi all,

Today I will present you the poisson picks for the second play-off round of the Jupiler Pro League.
6 more bets that last week. So, there is a lot at stake. I will be happy, when the results are in line with the first test run.
So 30 bets, good for an ante of 30,1 units.
6 correct score bets 8 1X2 bets 6 BTS (BTTS) bets 6 Over/under 2.5 bets And then last but not least 4 acca's. 
I'm still trying to figure out which is the best lay-out the put the advice and picks on the site. This week I will place them sorted out by bet type.

6 correct score bets: 

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/LSP2OostendeWaregemCS192-10-1SP2Club BruggeCharleroiCS181-00-1SP2LokerenKortrijkCS190-00-1SP2StandardSTVVCS192-00-1SP2AnderlechtGentCS19,52-00-1SP2MouscronEupenCS16,751-10-1
8 1X2 bets: