Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	1X2	1	1,35	1	1	G	1,35	0,35
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	1X2	1	3,05	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	1X2	1	2,45	1	2	F	0	-1
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	1X2	1	3	1	x	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	1X2	1	2,7	2	X	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	1X2	1	4,2	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	1X2	1	4,3	2	1	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	1X2	1	1,45	1	1	G	1,45	0,45

In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	O/U	1	1,57	O	O	G	1,57	0,57
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	O/U	1	1,74	O	O	G	1,74	0,74
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	O/U	1	2,02	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	O/U	1	1,85	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	O/U	1	1,91	U	U	G	1,91	0,91
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	O/U	1	1,69	O	U	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	O/U	1	1,7	O	O	G	1,7	0,7

In the BTTS market, we expect a lot of clean sheets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	BTTS	1	2,25	N	J	F	0	-1
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	BTTS	1	2,04	N	N	G	2,04	1,04
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	BTTS	1	2,25	N	J	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	BTTS	1	2,02	N	N	G	2,02	1,02
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	BTTS	1	1,7	J	N	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	BTTS	1	2	N	N	G	2	1
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	BTTS	1	1,65	J	N	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	BTTS	1	1,85	J	J	G	1,85	0,85

Correct score bets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6	Standard	Union	CS	1	28	0-2	3-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Genk	Kortrijk	CS	1	8,5	2-0	3-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Lokeren	Eupen	CS	1	10	1-0	4-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Waasland	St Truiden	CS	1	8,5	1-0	0-1	F	0	-1
SP6	Lierse	Mechelen	CS	1	7	1-1	0-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Gent	Anderlecht	CS	1	7	1-1	0-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Oostende	Charleroi	CS	1	8	1-0	1-0	G	8	7
SP6	Mouscron	Roeselare	CS	1	14	1-2	1-0	F	0	-1
SP6	Club Brugge	Waregem	CS	1	8,5	2-1	2-1	G	8,5	7,5

Finally the Acca's:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP6			4 1X2	1	9,85	J			0	-1
SP6			4 BTS	1	11,44	J			0	-1
SP6			4 O/U	1,25	9,38	J			0	-1,25
SP6			Yankee CS	1,1		J			0	-1,1

We are going for a third profitable round in a row!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

		# ante	# Pay-out	P/L	ROI	#	G	F
Overal	CS	37	33,5	-3,5	-9,46%	37	4	33	10,81%
	1X2	39	29,98	-9,02	-23,13%	39	13	26	33,33%
	BTS	32	29,5	-2,5	-7,81%	32	16	16	50,00%
	O/U	23	23,68	0,68	2,96%	23	12	11	52,17%
	Yankee CS	4,4	0	-4,4	-100,00%	4	0	4	0,00%
	4 BTS	5	9,6	4,6	92,00%	5	1	4	20,00%
	4 1X2	5	0	-5	-100,00%	5	0	5	0,00%
	4 O/U	5	13,26	8,26	165,20%	5	1	4	20,00%
		150,4	139,52	-10,88	-7,23%	150	47	103	31,33%

I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in week 5) is also getting close.

Overall I'm down for 10,88 unit, but I do still believe that a can end up in green figures.
5 more rounds to go.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.
 

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	1X2	1	2,7	2	2	G	2,7	1,7	-10,03
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	1X2	1	1,58	1	2	F	0	-1	-11,03
SP5	Waregem	Gent	1X2	1	3,35	X	2	F	0	-1	-12,03
SP5	Eupen	Genk	1X2	1	1,95	2	X	F	0	-1	-13,03
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	1X2	1	1,52	1	1	G	1,52	0,52	-12,51
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	1X2	1	1,95	1	1	G	1,95	0,95	-11,56
SP5	Mouscron	Lokeren	1X2	1	3,55	X	X	G	3,55	2,55	-9,01
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	1X2	1	1,46	1	2	F	0	-1	-10,01
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	BTS	1	1,65	J	J	G	1,65	0,65	-9,36
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	BTS	1	2,05	N	N	G	2,05	1,05	-8,31
SP5	Union	Lierse	BTS	1	2,08	N	J	F	0	-1	-9,31
SP5	Waregem	Gent	BTS	1	1,9	N	N	G	1,9	0,9	-8,41
SP5	Eupen	Genk	BTS	1	1,54	J	J	G	1,54	0,54	-7,87
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	BTS	1	1,98	N	J	F	0	-1	-8,87
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	BTS	1	2,08	N	N	G	2,08	1,08	-7,79
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	BTS	1	1,88	N	N	G	1,88	0,88	-6,91
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	O/U	1	1,84	O	O	G	1,84	0,84	-6,07
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	O/U	1	2,14	U	U	G	2,14	1,14	-4,93
SP5	Waregem	Gent	O/U	1	2,18	O	U	F	0	-1	-5,93
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	O/U	1	1,71	U	O	F	0	-1	-6,93
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	O/U	1	2,15	U	U	G	2,15	1,15	-5,78
SP5	Roeselare	Kortrijk	CS	1	10	1-2	2-3	F	0	-1	-6,78
SP5	Standard	Waasland-Beveren	CS	1	8,5	2-0	0-2	F	0	-1	-7,78
SP5	Union	Lierse	CS	1	11,5	2-0	1-3	F	0	-1	-8,78
SP5	Waregem	Gent	CS	1	9	1-0	0-2	F	0	-1	-9,78
SP5	Eupen	Genk	CS	1	8,5	1-2	1-1	F	0	-1	-10,78
SP5	Club Brugge	Oostende	CS	1	8,5	2-0	3-1	F	0	-1	-11,78
SP5	Mechelen	St Truiden	CS	1	8	1-0	1-0	G	8	7	-4,78
SP5	Mouscron	Lokeren	CS	1	7	1-1	2-2	F	0	-1	-5,78
SP5	Anderlecht	Charleroi	CS	1	7,5	1-0	0-1	F	0	-1	-6,78
SP5			4 1X2	1	9,13	J	N	F	0	-1	-7,78
SP5			4 BTS	1	12,42	J	N	F	0	-1	-8,78
SP5			4 O/U	1	13,63	J	N	F	0	-1	-9,78
SP5			Yankee CS	1,1		J	N	F	0	-1,1	-10,88

A profit is a profit

It was a small profit but a profit it was. 6,85 units in total (22,03% ROI)
3 markets colored green.

The Correct score market, delivered 1 correct score prediction, god enough for a profit of 1,5 units.
The over/under market also brought in a small profit, namely 0,84 units.
Finally 1 acca came in, the 4 O/U acca, good for a profit of 12,26 units.

Combine this with relatively small losses and the 1X2 market (-2,45 units), the BTTS market (-2,2 units) and the other acca markets (-3,1 units) and overal we made a profit.

Still disappointed about the 1X2 market. Only 3 out of 8 correct.

As a resume:
week 1: 7,06 units profit
week 2: -9,6 units loss
week 3: -16 units loss
week 4: 6,85 units profit

This week there is a midweek round in the Jupiler Pro League, I will try to post my picks later tonight or tomorrow.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Betting tips Round 4 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

7 rounds to go. 7 rounds time to get back into green figures.
Really believe that the 1X2 market will color green for this round. For the moment the Championship play-offs are really strange with 5 draws out of 8 matches and even only 1 home win. Even compared to the previous Championship play-offs rounds, this way below average.

Below are the 8 bets which should do the trick for me:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP4	Gent	Oostende	1X2	1	1,73	1			0	-1
SP4	Charleroi	Waregem	1X2	1	1,98	1			0	-1
SP4	Kortrijk	Eupen	1X2	1	2,28	1			0	-1
SP4	Lierse	Waasland-Beveren	1X2	1	2	1			0	-1
SP4	Lokeren	Roeselare	1X2	1	4,8	2			0	-1
SP4	Mechelen	Standard	1X2	1	2,75	2			0	-1
SP4	Anderlecht	Club Brugge	1X2	1	2,08	1			0	-1
SP4	Genk	Mouscron	1X2	1	1,33	1			0	-1

Due to value betting only 3 over/under 2.5 goals bets. The loss here at the moment is 1,29 units, meaning that all 3 should be correct. 2 out of 3 would at least mean green figures for round 2.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP4	Gent	Oostende	O/U	1	2,1	U			0	-1
SP4	Lierse	Waasland-Beveren	O/U	1	1,9	U			0	-1
SP4	Lokeren	Roeselare	O/U	1	1,73	O			0	-1

On the BTTS market the loss at the moment stands on 3,4 units. Personally I find this one of the toughest markets to beat. 8 picks for round 4. 4 or 5 out of 8 are needed for green figures for the round.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP4	Gent	Oostende	BTS	1	2,1	N			0	-1
SP4	Charleroi	Waregem	BTS	1	2	J			0	-1
SP4	Kortrijk	Eupen	BTS	1	1,73	J			0	-1
SP4	Lierse	Waasland-Beveren	BTS	1	1,98	N			0	-1
SP4	Lokeren	Roeselare	BTS	1	2,1	N			0	-1
SP4	Mechelen	Standard	BTS	1	2,08	N			0	-1
SP4	Anderlecht	Club Brugge	BTS	1	2,04	N			0	-1
SP4	St Truiden	Union	BTS	1	1,79	J			0	-1

Round 3 was the first round without any correct correct score predictions. Let's see if we do have more luck this round. All low scores, but the good things is that these are the most common football results.

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP4	Gent	Oostende	CS	1	8	1-0			0	-1
SP4	Charleroi	Waregem	CS	1	7,5	1-1			0	-1
SP4	Kortrijk	Eupen	CS	1	6,75	1-1			0	-1
SP4	Lierse	Waasland-Beveren	CS	1	8	1-0			0	-1
SP4	Lokeren	Roeselare	CS	1	16	0-1			0	-1
SP4	Mechelen	Standard	CS	1	9,5	1-0			0	-1
SP4	Anderlecht	Club Brugge	CS	1	8	1-0			0	-1
SP4	Genk	Mouscron	CS	1	7,5	2-0			0	-1

Leaves me with the 4 Acca's I will be playing. If the Poisson Model does predict the 4 BTTS acca correctly, I'm assured of at least one winning market at the end of the Play-off Rounds.

The 4 1X2 acca looks like this:

	Home	Away	Prediction
4 1X2	Genk	Mouscron	1	1,33
	Gent	Oostende	1	1,73
	Anderlecht	Club Brugge	1	2,08
	Lierse	Waasland-Beveren	1	2
				9,57

The 4 BTTS acca looks like this:

	Home	Away	Prediction
4 BTTS	Charleroi	Waregem	J	2
	Genk	Mouscron	N	1,82
	St Truiden	Union	J	1,79
	Lokeren	Roeselare	N	2,1
				13,68

The 4 O/U 2.5 acca looks like this:

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
4 O/U	Gent	Oostende	U	2,1
	Lokeren	Roeselare	O	1,73
	Mechelen	Standard	U	1,9
	Anderlecht	Club Brugge	U	1,91
			Total	13,18

The Yankee Correct Score acca looks like this:

	Home	Away	Prediction	Odds
CS	Genk	Mouscron	2-0	7,5
	Kortrijk	Eupen	1-1	6,75
	Gent	Oostende	1-0	8
	Charleroi	Waregem	1-1	7,5
			Total	500,87

Good luck with betting, Dremeber

The massacre continues :(

Not the weekendI was hoping for. Red lines on all betting types.
There were some strange results, but it should have been better.
Before I was surprised by the high number of no BTS and the high under 2.5 predictions but I'm still keeping the faith and did place the bet according to the Poisson model.
Also I'm looking to do some tweaks. Maybe the play-offs aren't the best competition format to go live with my Poisson Prediction model. So, I'm running again a new test run for the regular competition to see if it really should have delivered a profit in thee regular season.

Besides this I'm also running a test run for the Dutch Eredivisie, to see how the model performs there.
Due to the fact that I have build my model in excel, both test are really times consuming, but it has to be done! Planning a real website for both the Belgium Jupiler Pro League and the Dutch Eredivisie for the start of the new season. The down side will be that this will be in Dutch.
If both sides are covering their cost, I also will launch the same sites in English.

Below are the hard figures from last week:

	# Inzet	# Pay-out	P/L	ROI	#	G	F
CS	8	0	-8	-100,00%	8	0	8	0,00%
1X2	8	7,72	-0,28	-3,50%	8	3	5	37,50%
BTS	7	3,61	-3,39	-48,43%	7	2	5	28,57%
O/U	5	3,63	-1,37	-27,40%	5	2	3	40,00%
Yankee CS	0	0	0	#DEEL/0!	0	0	0	#DEEL/0!
4 BTS	1	0	-1	-100,00%	1	0	1	0,00%
4 1X2	1	0	-1	-100,00%	1	0	1	0,00%
4 O/U	1	0	-1	-100,00%	1	0	1	0,00%
	31	14,96	-16,04	-51,74%	31	7	24	22,58%

The total table still has one green line :)

	# Inzet	# Pay-out	P/L	ROI	#	G	F
CS	20	16	-4	-20,00%	20	2	18	10,00%
1X2	23	14,71	-8,29	-36,04%	23	6	17	26,09%
BTS	16	12,6	-3,4	-21,25%	16	7	9	43,75%
O/U	15	13,71	-1,29	-8,60%	15	7	8	46,67%
Yankee CS	2,2	0	-2,2	-100,00%	2	0	2	0,00%
4 BTS	3	9,6	6,6	220,00%	3	1	2	33,33%
4 1X2	3	0	-3	-100,00%	3	0	3	0,00%
4 O/U	3	0	-3	-100,00%	3	0	3	0,00%
	85,2	66,62	-18,58	-21,81%	85	23	62	27,06%

The tips for round 4 will be posted later this week.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Poisson picks round 3: Play-offs Belgium Jupiler Pro League

After the massacre of last week, I'm hoping on a better result for round 3.
I did evaluate the predictions of the last 2 weeks, and compared all 4 Poisson models again but after two round it is still to early to draw conclusion. We all also have to remember that sports betting is more like a marathon and not like the 100 m sprint.

Let's see if we can turn things around:



For round 3 the total investment would be 31 units. Comparable to last week. 
So here are my picks for round 3.

Correct Score Picks:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out
SP3	Waasland-Beveren	Mechelen	CS	1	7	1-1			0
SP3	Eupen	Lokeren	CS	1	7	1-1			0
SP3	Roeselare	Mouscron	CS	1	9	0-0			0
SP3	St Truiden	Lierse	CS	1	7,5	1-0			0
SP3	Oostende	Anderlecht	CS	1	8	1-1			0
SP3	Kortrijk	Genk	CS	1	7,5	1-1			0
SP3	Waregem	Club Brugge	CS	1	10	0-0			0
SP3	Charleroi	Gent	CS	1	8,5	1-0			0

1X2 Picks:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out
SP3	Waasland-Beveren	Mechelen	1X2	1	3,45	X			0
SP3	Eupen	Lokeren	1X2	1	3,8	2			0
SP3	Roeselare	Mouscron	1X2	1	2,65	1			0
SP3	St Truiden	Lierse	1X2	1	2	1			0
SP3	Oostende	Anderlecht	1X2	1	2,12	2			0
SP3	Kortrijk	Genk	1X2	1	4	1			0
SP3	Waregem	Club Brugge	1X2	1	3,6	X			0
SP3	Charleroi	Gent	1X2	1	3,15	X			0

BTS Picks:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out
SP3	Union	Standard	BTS	1	1,96	N			0
SP3	Eupen	Lokeren	BTS	1	1,75	J			0
SP3	Roeselare	Mouscron	BTS	1	2,02	N			0
SP3	St Truiden	Lierse	BTS	1	1,97	N			0
SP3	Oostende	Anderlecht	BTS	1	1,58	J			0
SP3	Waregem	Club Brugge	BTS	1	2,1	N			0
SP3	Charleroi	Gent	BTS	1	1,86	N			0

Over/Under 2.5 goals Picks :

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out
SP3	Waasland-Beveren	Mechelen	O/U	1	1,84	U			0
SP3	Eupen	Lokeren	O/U	1	1,84	U			0
SP3	Oostende	Anderlecht	O/U	1	1,62	O			0
SP3	Kortrijk	Genk	O/U	1	1,79	O			0
SP3	Waregem	Club Brugge	O/U	1	1,84	O			0

Good luck,
Dremeber

Poisson Test run: Massacre

I have to be honest. I did expect a profit but it was a complete massacre.
Only one winning market, namely the correct score market.
All red figures in the other markets. But the one which was the most unexpected was the 1X2 market with only 1 correct out of 8.

If I do look at other prediction site, they didn't do much better, if they did.


Overall we are currently presenting these figures:
 
Still green in the Correct score and Over/Under market.

We can only improve :)
Let's see what the eastern bunny brings us!!!

Cheers,
Dremeber

Poisson pick round 2 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Hi all,

Today I will present you the poisson picks for the second play-off round of the Jupiler Pro League.
6 more bets that last week. So, there is a lot at stake. I will be happy, when the results are in line with the first test run.
So 30 bets, good for an ante of 30,1 units.

• 6 correct score bets 
• 8 1X2 bets 
• 6 BTS (BTTS) bets 
• 6 Over/under 2.5 bets 
• And then last but not least 4 acca's. 

I'm still trying to figure out which is the best lay-out the put the advice and picks on the site. This week I will place them sorted out by bet type.

6 correct score bets: 

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP2	Oostende	Waregem	CS	1	9	2-1			0	-1
SP2	Club Brugge	Charleroi	CS	1	8	1-0			0	-1
SP2	Lokeren	Kortrijk	CS	1	9	0-0			0	-1
SP2	Standard	STVV	CS	1	9	2-0			0	-1
SP2	Anderlecht	Gent	CS	1	9,5	2-0			0	-1
SP2	Mouscron	Eupen	CS	1	6,75	1-1			0	-1

8 1X2 bets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP2	Oostende	Waregem	1X2	1	3,55	2			0	-1
SP2	Club Brugge	Charleroi	1X2	1	1,46	1			0	-1
SP2	Roeselare	Genk	1X2	1	1,46	2			0	-1
SP2	Lokeren	Kortrijk	1X2	1	4	2			0	-1
SP2	Standard	STVV	1X2	1	1,65	1			0	-1
SP2	Anderlecht	Gent	1X2	1	1,88	1			0	-1
SP2	Mechelen	Lierse	1X2	1	3,8	X			0	-1
SP2	Mouscron	Eupen	1X2	1	2,35	1			0	-1

6 BTTS (BTS) bets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP2	Oostende	Waregem	BTS	1	1,62	J			0	-1
SP2	Club Brugge	Charleroi	BTS	1	1,91	N			0	-1
SP2	Lokeren	Kortrijk	BTS	1	1,89	N			0	-1
SP2	Standard	STVV	BTS	1	1,96	N			0	-1
SP2	Anderlecht	Gent	BTS	1	1,98	N			0	-1
SP2	Mouscron	Eupen	BTS	1	1,68	J			0	-1

6 Over/Under 2.5 bets:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP2	Oostende	Waregem	O/U	1	1,8	O			0	-1
SP2	Club Brugge	Charleroi	O/U	1	2,25	U			0	-1
SP2	Roeselare	Genk	O/U	1	2,32	U			0	-1
SP2	Lokeren	Kortrijk	O/U	1	2,02	O			0	-1
SP2	Standard	STVV	O/U	1	2,02	U			0	-1
SP2	Mechelen	Lierse	O/U	1	1,85	O			0	-1

4 Acca's:

Round	Home	Away	Type	Ante	Odds	Bet	Result	G/F	Pay-out	P/L
SP2			Yankee CS	1,1	694,14	J			0	-1,1
SP2			4 1X2	1	6,61	J			0	-1
SP2			4 BTS	1	10,19	J			0	-1
SP2			4 O/U	1	15,47	J			0	-1

10 more hours to the start of Round 2 of the JPL Play-offs.

Good luck,
Dremeber