Friday, April 28, 2017

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6GenkKortrijk1X211,3511G1,350,35
SP6LokerenEupen1X213,0521F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt Truiden1X212,4512F0-1
SP6LierseMechelen1X2131xF0-1
SP6GentAnderlecht1X212,72XF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroi1X214,221F0-1
SP6MouscronRoeselare1X214,321F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregem1X211,4511G1,450,45

In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionO/U11,57OOG1,570,57
SP6LokerenEupenO/U11,74OOG1,740,74
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenO/U12,02OUF0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtO/U11,85OUF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiO/U11,91UUG1,910,91
SP6MouscronRoeselareO/U11,69OUF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemO/U11,7OOG1,70,7

In the BTTS market, we expect a lot of clean sheets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkBTTS12,04NNG2,041,04
SP6LokerenEupenBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenBTTS12,02NNG2,021,02
SP6LierseMechelenBTTS11,7JNF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiBTTS12NNG21
SP6MouscronRoeselareBTTS11,65JNF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemBTTS11,85JJG1,850,85

Correct score bets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionCS1280-23-1F0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkCS18,52-03-0F0-1
SP6LokerenEupenCS1101-04-1F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenCS18,51-00-1F0-1
SP6LierseMechelenCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiCS181-01-0G87
SP6MouscronRoeselareCS1141-21-0F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemCS18,52-12-1G8,57,5

Finally the Acca's:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP64 1X219,85J0-1
SP64 BTS111,44J0-1
SP64 O/U1,259,38J0-1,25
SP6Yankee CS1,1J0-1,1

We are going for a third profitable round in a row!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

# ante# Pay-outP/LROI#GF
OveralCS3733,5-3,5-9,46%3743310,81%
1X23929,98-9,02-23,13%39132633,33%
BTS3229,5-2,5-7,81%32161650,00%
O/U2323,680,682,96%23121152,17%
Yankee CS4,40-4,4-100,00%4040,00%
4 BTS59,64,692,00%51420,00%
4 1X250-5-100,00%5050,00%
4 O/U513,268,26165,20%51420,00%
150,4139,52-10,88-7,23%1504710331,33%


I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in week 5) is also getting close.

Overall I'm down for 10,88 unit, but I do still believe that a can end up in green figures.
5 more rounds to go.

Cheers,
Dremeber



Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.
 
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP5RoeselareKortrijk1X212,722G2,71,7-10,03
SP5StandardWaasland-Beveren1X211,5812F0-1-11,03
SP5WaregemGent1X213,35X2F0-1-12,03
SP5EupenGenk1X211,952XF0-1-13,03
SP5Club BruggeOostende1X211,5211G1,520,52-12,51
SP5MechelenSt Truiden1X211,9511G1,950,95-11,56
SP5MouscronLokeren1X213,55XXG3,552,55-9,01
SP5AnderlechtCharleroi1X211,4612F0-1-10,01
SP5RoeselareKortrijkBTS11,65JJG1,650,65-9,36
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenBTS12,05NNG2,051,05-8,31
SP5UnionLierseBTS12,08NJF0-1-9,31
SP5WaregemGentBTS11,9NNG1,90,9-8,41
SP5EupenGenkBTS11,54JJG1,540,54-7,87
SP5Club BruggeOostendeBTS11,98NJF0-1-8,87
SP5MechelenSt TruidenBTS12,08NNG2,081,08-7,79
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiBTS11,88NNG1,880,88-6,91
SP5RoeselareKortrijkO/U11,84OOG1,840,84-6,07
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenO/U12,14UUG2,141,14-4,93
SP5WaregemGentO/U12,18OUF0-1-5,93
SP5Club BruggeOostendeO/U11,71UOF0-1-6,93
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiO/U12,15UUG2,151,15-5,78
SP5RoeselareKortrijkCS1101-22-3F0-1-6,78
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenCS18,52-00-2F0-1-7,78
SP5UnionLierseCS111,52-01-3F0-1-8,78
SP5WaregemGentCS191-00-2F0-1-9,78
SP5EupenGenkCS18,51-21-1F0-1-10,78
SP5Club BruggeOostendeCS18,52-03-1F0-1-11,78
SP5MechelenSt TruidenCS181-01-0G87-4,78
SP5MouscronLokerenCS171-12-2F0-1-5,78
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiCS17,51-00-1F0-1-6,78
SP54 1X219,13JNF0-1-7,78
SP54 BTS112,42JNF0-1-8,78
SP54 O/U113,63JNF0-1-9,78
SP5Yankee CS1,1JNF0-1,1-10,88

Monday, April 24, 2017

A profit is a profit

It was a small profit but a profit it was. 6,85 units in total (22,03% ROI)
3 markets colored green.

The Correct score market, delivered 1 correct score prediction, god enough for a profit of 1,5 units.
The over/under market also brought in a small profit, namely 0,84 units.
Finally 1 acca came in, the 4 O/U acca, good for a profit of 12,26 units.

Combine this with relatively small losses and the 1X2 market (-2,45 units), the BTTS market (-2,2 units) and the other acca markets (-3,1 units) and overal we made a profit.

Still disappointed about the 1X2 market. Only 3 out of 8 correct.

As a resume:
week 1: 7,06 units profit
week 2: -9,6 units loss
week 3: -16 units loss
week 4: 6,85 units profit

This week there is a midweek round in the Jupiler Pro League, I will try to post my picks later tonight or tomorrow.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Betting tips Round 4 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

7 rounds to go. 7 rounds time to get back into green figures.
Really believe that the 1X2 market will color green for this round. For the moment the Championship play-offs are really strange with 5 draws out of 8 matches and even only 1 home win. Even compared to the previous Championship play-offs rounds, this way below average.

Below are the 8 bets which should do the trick for me:


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP4GentOostende1X211,7310-1
SP4CharleroiWaregem1X211,9810-1
SP4KortrijkEupen1X212,2810-1
SP4LierseWaasland-Beveren1X21210-1
SP4LokerenRoeselare1X214,820-1
SP4MechelenStandard1X212,7520-1
SP4AnderlechtClub Brugge1X212,0810-1
SP4GenkMouscron1X211,3310-1

Due to value betting only 3 over/under 2.5 goals bets. The loss here at the moment is 1,29 units, meaning that all 3 should be correct. 2 out of 3 would at least mean green figures for round 2.


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP4GentOostendeO/U12,1U0-1
SP4LierseWaasland-BeverenO/U11,9U0-1
SP4LokerenRoeselareO/U11,73O0-1

On the BTTS market the loss at the moment stands on 3,4 units. Personally I find this one of the toughest markets to beat. 8 picks for round 4. 4 or 5 out of 8 are needed for green figures for the round.


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP4GentOostendeBTS12,1N0-1
SP4CharleroiWaregemBTS12J0-1
SP4KortrijkEupenBTS11,73J0-1
SP4LierseWaasland-BeverenBTS11,98N0-1
SP4LokerenRoeselareBTS12,1N0-1
SP4MechelenStandardBTS12,08N0-1
SP4AnderlechtClub BruggeBTS12,04N0-1
SP4St TruidenUnionBTS11,79J0-1

Round 3 was the first round without any correct correct score predictions. Let's see if we do have more luck this round. All low scores, but the good things is that these are the most common football results.


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP4GentOostendeCS181-00-1
SP4CharleroiWaregemCS17,51-10-1
SP4KortrijkEupenCS16,751-10-1
SP4LierseWaasland-BeverenCS181-00-1
SP4LokerenRoeselareCS1160-10-1
SP4MechelenStandardCS19,51-00-1
SP4AnderlechtClub BruggeCS181-00-1
SP4GenkMouscronCS17,52-00-1

Leaves me with the 4 Acca's I will be playing. If the Poisson Model does predict the 4 BTTS acca correctly, I'm assured of at least one winning market at the end of the Play-off Rounds.

The 4 1X2 acca looks like this:
Home AwayPrediction
4 1X2GenkMouscron11,33
GentOostende11,73
AnderlechtClub Brugge12,08
LierseWaasland-Beveren12
9,57

The 4 BTTS acca looks like this:

Home AwayPrediction
4 BTTSCharleroiWaregemJ2
GenkMouscronN1,82
St TruidenUnionJ1,79
LokerenRoeselareN2,1
13,68

The 4 O/U 2.5 acca looks like this:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 O/UGentOostendeU2,1
LokerenRoeselareO1,73
MechelenStandardU1,9
AnderlechtClub BruggeU1,91
Total13,18

The Yankee Correct Score acca looks like this:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
CSGenkMouscron2-07,5
KortrijkEupen1-16,75
GentOostende1-08
CharleroiWaregem1-17,5
Total500,87


Good luck with betting, Dremeber

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The massacre continues :(

Not the weekendI was hoping for. Red lines on all betting types.
There were some strange results, but it should have been better.
Before I was surprised by the high number of no BTS and the high under 2.5 predictions but I'm still keeping the faith and did place the bet according to the Poisson model.
Also I'm looking to do some tweaks. Maybe the play-offs aren't the best competition format to go live with my Poisson Prediction model. So, I'm running again a new test run for the regular competition to see if it really should have delivered a profit in thee regular season.

Besides this I'm also running a test run for the Dutch Eredivisie, to see how the model performs there.
Due to the fact that I have build my model in excel, both test are really times consuming, but it has to be done! Planning a real website for both the Belgium Jupiler Pro League and the Dutch Eredivisie for the start of the new season. The down side will be that this will be in Dutch.
If both sides are covering their cost, I also will launch the same sites in English.

Below are the hard figures from last week:


# Inzet# Pay-outP/LROI#GF
CS80-8-100,00%8080,00%
1X287,72-0,28-3,50%83537,50%
BTS73,61-3,39-48,43%72528,57%
O/U53,63-1,37-27,40%52340,00%
Yankee CS000#DEEL/0!000#DEEL/0!
4 BTS10-1-100,00%1010,00%
4 1X210-1-100,00%1010,00%
4 O/U10-1-100,00%1010,00%
3114,96-16,04-51,74%3172422,58%

The total table still has one green line :)


# Inzet# Pay-outP/LROI#GF
CS2016-4-20,00%2021810,00%
1X22314,71-8,29-36,04%2361726,09%
BTS1612,6-3,4-21,25%167943,75%
O/U1513,71-1,29-8,60%157846,67%
Yankee CS2,20-2,2-100,00%2020,00%
4 BTS39,66,6220,00%31233,33%
4 1X230-3-100,00%3030,00%
4 O/U30-3-100,00%3030,00%
85,266,62-18,58-21,81%85236227,06%
The tips for round 4 will be posted later this week.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, April 14, 2017

Poisson picks round 3: Play-offs Belgium Jupiler Pro League

After the massacre of last week, I'm hoping on a better result for round 3.
I did evaluate the predictions of the last 2 weeks, and compared all 4 Poisson models again but after two round it is still to early to draw conclusion. We all also have to remember that sports betting is more like a marathon and not like the 100 m sprint.

Let's see if we can turn things around:



For round 3 the total investment would be 31 units. Comparable to last week. 
So here are my picks for round 3.

Correct Score Picks:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-out
SP3Waasland-BeverenMechelenCS171-10
SP3EupenLokerenCS171-10
SP3RoeselareMouscronCS190-00
SP3St TruidenLierseCS17,51-00
SP3OostendeAnderlechtCS181-10
SP3KortrijkGenkCS17,51-10
SP3WaregemClub BruggeCS1100-00
SP3CharleroiGentCS18,51-00


1X2 Picks:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-out
SP3Waasland-BeverenMechelen1X213,45X0
SP3EupenLokeren1X213,820
SP3RoeselareMouscron1X212,6510
SP3St TruidenLierse1X21210
SP3OostendeAnderlecht1X212,1220
SP3KortrijkGenk1X21410
SP3WaregemClub Brugge1X213,6X0
SP3CharleroiGent1X213,15X0


BTS Picks:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-out
SP3UnionStandardBTS11,96N0
SP3EupenLokerenBTS11,75J0
SP3RoeselareMouscronBTS12,02N0
SP3St TruidenLierseBTS11,97N0
SP3OostendeAnderlechtBTS11,58J0
SP3WaregemClub BruggeBTS12,1N0
SP3CharleroiGentBTS11,86N0
    Over/Under 2.5 goals Picks :
    RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-out
    SP3Waasland-BeverenMechelenO/U11,84U0
    SP3EupenLokerenO/U11,84U0
    SP3OostendeAnderlechtO/U11,62O0
    SP3KortrijkGenkO/U11,79O0
    SP3WaregemClub BruggeO/U11,84O0


    Good luck,
    Dremeber

    Monday, April 10, 2017

    Poisson Test run: Massacre

    I have to be honest. I did expect a profit but it was a complete massacre.
    Only one winning market, namely the correct score market.
    All red figures in the other markets. But the one which was the most unexpected was the 1X2 market with only 1 correct out of 8.

    If I do look at other prediction site, they didn't do much better, if they did.


    Overall we are currently presenting these figures:
     
    Still green in the Correct score and Over/Under market.

    We can only improve :)
    Let's see what the eastern bunny brings us!!!

    Cheers,
    Dremeber

    Friday, April 07, 2017

    Poisson pick round 2 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

    Hi all,

    Today I will present you the poisson picks for the second play-off round of the Jupiler Pro League.
    6 more bets that last week. So, there is a lot at stake. I will be happy, when the results are in line with the first test run.
    So 30 bets, good for an ante of 30,1 units.
    • 6 correct score bets 
    • 8 1X2 bets 
    • 6 BTS (BTTS) bets 
    • 6 Over/under 2.5 bets 
    • And then last but not least 4 acca's. 

    I'm still trying to figure out which is the best lay-out the put the advice and picks on the site. This week I will place them sorted out by bet type.

    6 correct score bets: 

    Round Home Away Type Ante Odds Bet Result G/F Pay-out P/L
    SP2 Oostende Waregem CS 1 9 2-1 0 -1
    SP2 Club Brugge Charleroi CS 1 8 1-0 0 -1
    SP2 Lokeren Kortrijk CS 1 9 0-0 0 -1
    SP2 Standard STVV CS 1 9 2-0 0 -1
    SP2 Anderlecht Gent CS 1 9,5 2-0 0 -1
    SP2 Mouscron Eupen CS 1 6,75 1-1 0 -1

    8 1X2 bets:


    Round Home Away Type Ante Odds Bet Result G/F Pay-out P/L
    SP2 Oostende Waregem 1X2 1 3,55 2 0 -1
    SP2 Club Brugge Charleroi 1X2 1 1,46 1 0 -1
    SP2 Roeselare Genk 1X2 1 1,46 2 0 -1
    SP2 Lokeren Kortrijk 1X2 1 4 2 0 -1
    SP2 Standard STVV 1X2 1 1,65 1 0 -1
    SP2 Anderlecht Gent 1X2 1 1,88 1 0 -1
    SP2 Mechelen Lierse 1X2 1 3,8 X 0 -1
    SP2 Mouscron Eupen 1X2 1 2,35 1 0 -1

    6 BTTS (BTS) bets:

    Round Home Away Type Ante Odds Bet Result G/F Pay-out P/L
    SP2 Oostende Waregem BTS 1 1,62 J 0 -1
    SP2 Club Brugge Charleroi BTS 1 1,91 N 0 -1
    SP2 Lokeren Kortrijk BTS 1 1,89 N 0 -1
    SP2 Standard STVV BTS 1 1,96 N 0 -1
    SP2 Anderlecht Gent BTS 1 1,98 N 0 -1
    SP2 Mouscron Eupen BTS 1 1,68 J 0 -1
    6 Over/Under 2.5 bets:

    Round Home Away Type Ante Odds Bet Result G/F Pay-out P/L
    SP2 Oostende Waregem O/U 1 1,8 O 0 -1
    SP2 Club Brugge Charleroi O/U 1 2,25 U 0 -1
    SP2 Roeselare Genk O/U 1 2,32 U 0 -1
    SP2 Lokeren Kortrijk O/U 1 2,02 O 0 -1
    SP2 Standard STVV O/U 1 2,02 U 0 -1
    SP2 Mechelen Lierse O/U 1 1,85 O 0 -1
    4 Acca's:
    Round Home Away Type Ante Odds Bet Result G/F Pay-out P/L
    SP2 Yankee CS 1,1 694,14 J 0 -1,1
    SP2 4 1X2 1 6,61 J 0 -1
    SP2 4 BTS 1 10,19 J 0 -1
    SP2 4 O/U 1 15,47 J 0 -1

    10 more hours to the start of Round 2 of the JPL Play-offs.

    Good luck,
    Dremeber