Monday, December 29, 2008
First we have to determine a starting bankroll for next year. At the moment I have a bankroll of 198€. Let’s be honest this is a dull figure to start with. So there are 2 options left (not a third cause a deposit is ruled out.
- Option 1: I will play some more bets this year hoping that my bankroll goes above 200. Not very likely cause there no more football games this year in the major European competitions.
- Option 2: I will bank some of my profit and start with a bankroll of 150€.
I will go for option number 2 for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: This would mean that I would have banked 100 euros in 2008, which is satisfying knowingly that I started with a miserable 50€ and reason number 2 is that this bankroll isn’t high enough to start taking to much risk but big enough to give a comfortable feeling. Everybody has it own comfort zone and 150 certainly is within mine.
Well the absolute goal is to have fun and to give watching sports something extra. Another obvious goal is to make some profit. My first idea was to aim for an average profit of 25€ per month. But that would bring my total bankroll on 450€. So a better aim would be an ending bankroll of 500€ , which indicates an average profit of 29,16€ per month. Seems feasible to me but time will tell if it indeed was/is. But as long as my ending bankroll of 2009 is above my starting bankroll, the year will be a success.
A non related bankroll goal is that I should keeping track of statistics. And maybe extend it with a Supertoto part.
My betting rules for 2009:
I think that is is important to have some betting rules in place, where you should stick. Otherwise it is very easy to loose a lot of money when lady luck is against you. For me the next simple rules will go into order from January the 1st 2009.
Rule 1: Combos
In general all my combination bets will have an ante of 1€. I have been playing with the idea to increase this but never executed these plans. I strongly believe in combination betting but not in increasing the ante for this betting type. In general a combination bet may never have an ante of more than 1% of your bankroll. The Risk of Ruin is simply to high for this betting type. Certainly in footballs 1x2 bets.
Rule 2: Single bets.
The golden rule for me will be that a single bet may not be higher than 5% of my bankroll. This rule is in place to prevent myself from panic betting. Once in a time taking a risk is not a problem, but an impulsive bet with an ante of higher than 5% of my bankroll is for me just out of range.
Rule 3: Supertoto
Cause I like to play the supertoto I also need a rule for this. When my bankroll is increasing I always want to bet more on the Supertoto than I should. Normally I will play with a 3,2€ ticket but in some situation I’m willing to take a higher risk. In these situation the following golden rule kicks in: A supertoto ticket may never cost more than 5% of my current bankroll, with a limit of 12,8€. Another Supertoto rule is that at least 75% of my supertoto tickets should be purchased before Wednesday midnight. This because Unibet gives a 10% discount. Suppose that I will play 40 tickets of 3,2€ and 75% of those tickets are purchased within the discount time frame, this would mean that I only will have to pay for 37 tickets. Sound like peanuts but every euro counts.
Well this is my way ahead. I hope the rules above will get me from going bankrupt and will bring me closer to my goal for 2009. It all depends on hit rate and ROI. After an analysis of my results in 2009 I can hopefully figure out what the best number of games in my combo bets are.
Good luck in 2009 and remember sportsbetting is still gambling. Do it with precautions!
Saturday, December 13, 2008
AA Gent - KV Kortrijk: 1 (odds: 1,45)
Well normally Gent may not have any problems with defeating Kortrijk but the defense of Gent is the area were the problems are but is possible that these problems will switch to the offense with the injury of their topscorer Olufade. No selection problems for Kortrijk.
Last year Gent won 4-0 at home but that was a cup game. The odds for a Gent win are at the moment around 1,45. Good enough, I would say.
Dender - Lokeren: 2 (odds: 2,30)
When looking at the classification of both team, this should be a no-brainer. Lokeren has besides the best defense of the league also the topscorer. Maazou should be able to score against the second worst defense of the league. Last season Lokeren won with 0-1 and I see them stealing the 3 points at Dender. Also the odds for a win of Lokeren are gigantic, namely 2.30.
Genk - Charlerloi: OVER (odds: 1,65)
Genk always has problems against team from the french part of Belgium. Therefor I don't like the odds for a Genk win, they are only 1,48. Therefor I will play an over 2.5 goals bets, the odds for this bet are a little bit better with 1,65.
Tubize - Mons: OVER (Odds: 1,90)
All sign point into the direction of a victory for Tubize. Mons won last week 5-2 at home against Dender, while Tubize lost 5-1 at Anderlecht. A 1X bet would give odds of 1,48 while an over bet has a value of 1,90. Maybe this over bet is a safer bet. With Perbet in form at Tubize side and Jarju on the side of Mons a lot of goals can be expected.
Westerlo - Cercle Brugge: X2 (odds: 1,72)
A man this one is a though to one to call. Both teams are in shape. At Cercle De Sutter finally is starting to score goals, while Westerlo has with Ruiz the number 6 of the topscorer list. Westerlo still has to loose this season at home, while Cercle is struggling away from home with only 1 victory. For some reason I don't see Cercle loosing this game. So to be safe I going for a x2 bet, with odds of 1,72.
Zulte Waregem - Mouscron: 1 (Odds: 2,05)
Mouscron can't be actually called an away team and never they did steal the 3 points at Zulte. And I don't expect it to change this season. Also zulte will be motivated to win for the first time in the Jupiler Pro League 3 games in a row.
this gives a combined odd of 36,87.
Monday, December 08, 2008
I had 4 out of 6 in the Jupiler Pro League. The victory of Roeselare on Westerlo came as a complete surprise to me. The other incorrect prediction was the victory of Mons. This victory was probably but still I had a strong believe that Dender could take the 3 points home with them. Next weekend better, I hope. But like I said before. It is good enough to predict all these games correct 2 or 3 times a season to make a major profit.
Besides the supertoto I had 4 winning tickets, good for a pay-out of 29,53 euros, bringing my monthly profit on 12,91.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
From this week on I will try to predict all the Saturday games from the JPL. Last week 1 euro was good for a pay-out of 57,90 euros. So I complete the season without any worries. I also can cope with the fact that it will probably only happens 2 or 3 times a season that I can manage this. I hope that I can fund this fun thingy with the profit from the other bets and that with this I can give the world some more inside information from the JPL.
To increase my odds I will allow myself to use all types of bets!
Well there are 6 games this saturday.
Anderlecht - Tubeke: over 2.5 (odds: 1,40)
Well this is maybe the easiest one to predict this matchday. Anderlecht (2) will should have no problems with Tubize (14). They have never faced each other before in the JPL. It is also the game of the best defense against the worst defense of the league. To increase the odds I will go for the over 2.5 goals bet, good for an odd of 1.40 instead of 1.13 for an Anderlecht win.
Germinal Beerschot - Mouscron: 1 (odds: 2,20)
This game has been played already 9 times before and GBA did win 5 of these encouters, loosing 2 and drawing another 2. Last season when GBA was playing on a cloud, they beat Mouscron with 3-0. This season is another story for GBA, currently firmly on a relegation place while Mouscron is one of the relevation (6th). But Mouscron isn't an away team. I could on the Antheunis effect, which could take effect any moment now! GBA will win!
Standard Liege - Zulte Waregem: over 2.5 (odds: 1,57)
Standard, third, will face Zulte Waregem at home. This is a game with always someting happening. Standard will see some negative influence of the splendid victory against Sampdoria, while Zulte is trying to break the negative spiral of outgames (lost their last 2). In normal conditions standard should win this easely but I would put a dime on it with odds of 1,30 for a win. The odds for over 2.5 goals is more appealing (1,57).
Roesalare - Westerlo: x2 (odds: 1,30)
Westerlo is currently standing on a fifth place, well above expectations, Roeselare is currently last, a little bit below expectations. In the last 3 encouters the scores were: 0-2, 2-0 and 0-2. So according to the pattern I should go for a win of Roeselare. But I will be going for a draw or a victory for Westerlo. Westerlo has a well balanced team with all decent players and some young rising stars like their striker, Ruiz, who will score at least once. You could also go for a win of Westerlo, which will increase the odds to 2,15.
Mons - Dender: 2 (odds: 3,35)
Ever before the season everybody already knew that this is a relegation game, or like we call it in Belgium a 6 points game. The gap in the league is also 3 points in favor of Dender. Mons fired their head coach this week after a discussion with one of their star player. So the players of Mons are will motivated to prove to the interim coach and the possible head coach for the remainder of the season that there are worth their place on the pitch. Still I'm going to put my money on dender, maybe they have lesser quality in their team but a much better/experienced coach, wich is much more important in such games.
Charlerloi - KV Mechelen: x2 (odds: 2,03)
KVM is struggling this season, but praise to their board, who are keeping to defend the head coach. But the head-to-head stats are against them, loosing 5 out of 6. Last season the game ended on 1-0 for Charlerloi, but this season I see KVM going home with 3 points. To cover my ass a little bit I will go for x2, which has a decent odd of 2,03.
The combined odds for this combe are 42,96. As always my bet is a 1 euro bet.
I also have created an alternative, which is more based on my heart then on stats and info. The combined odd of this is 444.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
November started of great with 3 winning tickets to continue into a real betting nightmare. Bankers failed to win, resulting into a loosing streak, resulting into a spiral of badly placed bets etc...
In total I placed 93 bets and only 16 of these were winners, that's a miserable 17,20%. 7% below my average. But the thing that bothered me the most was that my combos with 3 games failed, weekend after weekend. Only 2 correct out of 14 played and that's only 8,33%. 21% below average. Have to create these combos with more care next month.
On the positive side, this was the first month that I made a profit with my 4 games combos.
Like each month the Supertoto was my biggest loosing pot, good for a loss of 17,62 euros. Which brings the total Supertoto loss a little bit above 26 euros. But I will still continue to play it. I love them to much. But I hope that next month I can present better results than: 9/14, 10/14, 7/12, 8/14, 7/14, 5/10 and 7/14.
In total I have wagered now 288,36 euros and received 449,30 euros. So still a pretty decent turnover.
November on itself was good for an ante of 119,14 euros. Which is the biggest ever. Will try to decrease this a little bit.
I did also cash some money in November. I banked 55 euros. Getting my initial deposit + 5% back. Placing my playing bankroll on 135 euros and my total bankroll on 190 euros. Close to the 200 euros, and this will be the target to end to year.
I will update my stats page somewhere this week. Don't know when cause I will be pretty busy with work, a training course, indoor football and last but certainly not least my 3 months old son!
On the OLBG side, I was in the running until the last day for a paid place in the NHL competition. But I will end just out side the places. The most important thing here is that I did end with a profit. So 2 months more to go.
If you are not registered there give it a shot. It doesn't cost a dime (with other words ITS FREE) and give you the possibility to win real cash prices!
Saturday, November 29, 2008
I did place my bets for today already and probably will place 3 others tomorrow.
To try to make up my losses I gad to place a fun combo with combined odds of 32. If this one is correct it will bring my losses into an acceptable area but to be honest I don't count on it cause I'm into a spiral of loosing bets.
The only thing that can save my months is the supertoto but last week I had only 6 correct out of 14.
Looks I'm into spiral of losses, I hope I turn things around next month!
Sunday, November 23, 2008
First things first. I again did loose my preparation, probably I will find it again some where next week. I decided to decrease the number of bets. With my preparation I have planned to bet 5 combos, 1 single and the already placed Supertoto. It became 7 combos and the supertoto, good for an ante of 8,44 euros. I got one combo correct and an was decreased to a single bet due to bad weather, good for a pay-out of 6,08 euros. So a loss of 2,42 euros for the weekend. Bringing my monthly loss on 28,36 euros.
On the supertoto side I was thinking that it was impossible to do worse than last week but I managed to do it. Only 7 correct out of 14. The draws of Chelsea, Liverpool and Barcelone were a complete surprise.
This month I placed 64 bets but only 12 came out as a winner. That's a miserable 18,75%, which is below my season average which is 24,81%. As usual the biggest part of my loss is cause by the Supertoto, with an ante of 13,92 euros and no winners.
On the olbg front I'm still making a profit, but it is going to be difficult to end on one of the paid places. I'm standing 6th in the NHL table, but already 1000 pounds behind. In the other tables I'm not within the first 250 places. But I have to remind myself that it is more important to end with a profit.
This midweek there are CL games and the UEFA cup group matches. Watch out with the teams who are already qualified for the next round.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
The prevent going bankrupt I banked my initial deposit + 5% of it. Maybe my bets became to risky due to a bigger bankroll than normal. To put myself back with my 2 feet on the ground I did the banking action I hope that this will help.
Also on the OLBG front it was a lousy weekend I drop 50 places in the central European table and lost my top 3 place in the NHL table. But still half a month to go. The most important thing is that I end the month with a profit if I want to be a pro tipster in January.
I hope that my next post will be a more positive one. I still have 2 weekend in November to make up my momentarily loss of 25 euros. Maybe I should fall back to single bets. I'll see.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Also on the supertoto front it was a bad weekend. As usual I had 10 out of 14 correct. Again close but no sigar! Still waiting on that big win :).
On the OLBG front everything is going fine. I'm standing fourth in the central European table (top 3 paid) and third in the NHL table (top 3 paid). Beside that I only need two profitable months. If I can achieve this in the next 4 months, I will be a pro tipster for at least one month. And that is were the big money is.
We will see how this will evolve.
This midweek a lot of cupgames will be played. So a chance the recover some losses. For today I have placed 3 combos and one fun combo for today and tomorrow (if it is still valid tomorrow).
At the moment I'm around 10 euros down for the month. Time to turn things around.
Bankroll is still very healthy at 170 euros. The aim has been decreased and I hope to brake the 200 euro barrier before 2009 kicks in.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Like all bloggers I had big dreams for my blog. But to all good things come an end. It's strange but the motivation and drive I had in the beginning have vaporised. If I was a loosing playing this would lay within the line of expectations but I'm a winning one. The main reasons are probably the low visitor numbers and the lack of comments. And we all have to admit that recognition is always nice to receive. Like a mastercard add, it's priceless.
But I will not give up this blog too much effort have been put into it already. It will just not post my bets anymore but will follow the mainstream of betting blog and will just announce my results, look for reasons for my loosing bets and spread other betting news. I must admit that I hope for more interaction with my blogging strategy of posting my bets in advance but I guess that nobody is using them or even look at them. So why bother in posting them and putting so much effort in it?
I know that it is difficult to stand up and get noticed in this big internet world, with enough betting blogs, sites and forums. Getting a blog noticed is so much more difficult then writing good comment (not claiming that the content here on this miserable blog is good or even mediocre).
That's all for now.
Monday, November 03, 2008
I even didn't prepare my bets as normal. I just logged in on Saturday and Sunday morning and placed my bets. But never less it was a success. A profit of 7.10 euros. And this thanks to one successful combo of 4 games, with a combined value of 18,30 euros. In total I played 8 combos and the Supertoto 14. This last one again without success. I have to evaluate the Supertoto at the end of the month if it is still worth playing.
The bankroll is steadily increasing and reached 193 euros. Which is not bad considering that I started with 50 and only play 1 euro bets. When my bankroll will break the 200 barrier I will increase my bets with 0,25 euros. While the increase seems marginal it is a increase of 25%, which seems substantial. I will stick to this new ante until my bank drops below 175 or it reaches above to 250, what ever comes first.
This midweek there is a lot of action on the field with the 4th round of the CL and the second match day of the UEFA groups.
I plan to play 2 combos on Tuesday and Wednesday and 3 or 4 on Thursday.
Here are my CL bets:
Based on the away win of Bordeaux at CFR CLUJ, the walkover of Inter over Famagusta and last but not least the revanche of Marseille on PSV. This with a combined odd of 9.13.
A little bit less risky with predicted wins of Liverpool (against Atl Madrid) and Werder Bremen (against Panathinaikos). Combined odds 2.24.
The home win of Real Madrid against Juventus and the away win from Zenith at Bate. Good for a combined odd of 3.01.
This one exists of 3 games all with relatively low odds. I hope that Villarreal will have no problems with AaB, that Lyon will be capable of beating Steaua Bucaresti at home and that Arsenal will keep the three points at home against Fenerbache. If all this falls into place I will get 2.47 euros.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
In total I placed 77 bets (Supertoto not included) and 24 of these 77 bets were winning bets.
The total ante for October was 95,52 euro. The 24 winning bets and the supertoto were good for a pay-out of 121,8 euros.
The difference between becoming a good and great month is the lack of a winning fun combo. September was a great month due to such a fun combo, but on the other hand only 15% of my combo were winning ones, while in October 31% of my bets were winning bets. So my betting is improving!
The most money was won with the combos of 3 games and 5 games. I made a loss with my funcombos and the combo of 4 games.
My Bankroll is steadily growing. The aim for November is to bring it above 200 euros so that in December I can increase my bets for 1 euro bets to 1,25 euro bets.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Here are my bets for this weekend.
Monday, October 20, 2008
And there is only one to blame and that's me. Due to the fact that I failed to make 1 winning combo this weekend with one to go, I created 3 new ones. Without these the profit would have been 1.05 euros. So, lesson learned once again.
For once the supertoto minimized the losses. I had 2 tickets with 12 out of 14, good for 2.10 euros per ticket, and 4 tickets with 11 out of 14. To bad that so many peeps had 11 out of 14, good enough for a pay-out below 1 euro and accordingly no pay-out.
With the CL games and the first match day of the UEFA cup poules, there are plenty of chances to bend the curve into the good direction again. For the CL games I have 6 euros vail, for the UEFA cup games another 5 and probably I will create a Supertoto (depends on the costs).
Here are my CL bets:
Juventus - Real Madrid: 2: 2.55
FC Porto - Dynamo Kyiv: 1: 1.53
Fenerbache - Arsenal: 2: 2.05
Bayern Munich - Fiorentina: 1: 1.83
Zenit St. Petersburg - Bate Barislov: 1 : 1.27
Steaua Buciresti - Lyon: 2,15:
Bordeaux - CFR Cluj: 1: 1.75
Atletico Madrid - Liverpool: 2: 2.75
Shaktar - Sporting Lissabon: 1: 2.00
FC Basel - Barcelona: 2: 1.50
PSV - Marseille: 2: 3.00
Friday, October 17, 2008
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Also I made as usual some combo. I did want to add Belgium to one of the combo cause I have the strange feeling that they are going to win against Spain, so I played it as a single.
Good luck all,
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The supertoto was also going fine unfortunately it was going good for more peeps. 13 out of 14 correct was good for a miserable 1,69 euros.
The combo with the most profit was a six folded combo, good for a pay-out of 8,42 euros. Besides that a single, a double and a triple combo was correct!
Looking forward to the midweek WC qualification games!
Friday, October 10, 2008
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Yesterday I clicked again the wrong button. I had a combo of 5 tennis games and did want to place a 1 euro bet but I typed to 1 euro in the fourfold combo, meaning that I did place 5 euros for 5 fourfold combos. Luckily for me the combo was correct, so a profit of 16 euros. Giving my BR a boost, which enables me to take some risks during the interlands this weekend!
Now that I removed the idea that I will explain all my bets in front, I feel relieved :). I will still post my weekend bets in front, but my midweeks bets not anymore.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Made a small loss with the CL and a small profit with the Eufa cup. It was good to see that both Belgian teams won.
Here are my bets for this weekend. For one or the other reason the combined odds are lower than normal. Also a win on the Supertoto would be nice.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
My biggest profit with one combo was around 111 euros.
With the supertoto I made a small loss of 1 euro.
In total I made 52 combo bets and 8 of them were winners, that's only 15.38%. Which could be better but remember that it is more difficult to make a winning combo with enough profit than playing a single bets. Single bets can be very profitable but only when you BR is big enough and mine isn't.
Cause this is the first month that I did record my bets, I don't have benchmark figures.
So, the stats are still very basic.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
I made a loss of 5 euros by trying some live betting. When Werder Bremen was up 4-1 I made my first mistakes, the second was made when Bremen got a red card and Hoffenheim scored the 4-4! Lesson learned stay of Live Betting!!!!
On the combo side, I had 3 winning combos out of 8. Good for a combined weekend profit of 28,71 euros, the losses on live betting included! For me, and probably for a lot of us, the surprise of the weekend was the loss of Arsenal against Hull City. Combo 2 on Saturday didn't had a chance with the unexpected loss of Hertha and the draw of Juventus.
Sunday, I made the mistake to have faith in Tottenham, I had the idea that they could turn things around but they are in a down spiral! This error screwed up one combo, the other one didn't had a chance with 2 games out of 3 incorrect!
The plans for next week. I will play the uefa cup SuperToto and Supertoto 15. Supertoto 15 has to be played before Thursday so that I am entitled to the 10% discount Unibet is offering. I will made 4 combos for the CL. 2 for Tuesday and 2 for Wednesday. Probably I will play 4 combos on the uefa cup. And then the weekend is again knocking on the door.
On Wednesday I will also post the recap of September!
Make sure that you look on the net for the goal from Dembele from AZ. What a beauty!
So here we go with the Sunday bets:
Starting with the lowest combined odds.
Combo 1: Combined Odd: 7,84 -> Lost
Teams involved: KRC Genk and Tottenham
Yepm this one is tricky. Genk cannot afford to loose another game but they will face Mouscron and for some reason or the other they always have it difficult against them. Never less I'm confident that they will take 3 points home. The some lines are valid for Tottenham. They can't keep loosing or can they?
Combo 2: Combined odd: 17,38 ->Lost
Teams involved: Man. City, Napoli and Roda JC
Such high combined odds for a combo of only 3 games says it all. I have no doubt about Roda JC (away @ Sparta) and Manchester City (away @ Wigan). Napoli is another story. But at the moment they are in third place in the Serie A, while Bologna is third from the bottom so it is possible.
Combo 3: Combined odd: 39,40 -> Won
Teams involved: Lecce, Palermo, Ajax, Almeria and Valencia.
Don't be fooled by the odds. I place my bet per accident as a quintet. Meaning that it are more or less 5 combos of 4. Meaning that if one teams doesn't win I still make a profit on the other hand if 2 teams fail to do what I predict I do loose 5 euros. Lecce plays at home against Cagliari (last in the serie A) and Palermo plays against Reggina (second from the bottom). Ajax should win at home against Vitesse, while Valencia should be capable of beaten Deportivo at home. The last game in this strange combo is Almeria @ home against Huelva.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
So here we go with the Friday bet:
Friday Combo: Combined odd: 2,96 -> Lost
Teams involved: Schalke 04 and RSC Anderlecht
Schalke 04 plays away at Fc Koln. Koln still have to impress me and I hope that they will not excel this weekend. The other game is Standard Liege vs RSCA Anderlecht. The two big favorites for the Belgium title. I will play an X2 for this game. Anderlecht is out on revenge after the chance less defeat during the Supercup. Standard probably will already have the Uefa cup against Everton in the back of their mind, willingly or not! Therefor I will bet on X2.
Saturday Combo 1: Combined odd: 3,12 -> Won
Teams involved: FC Twente, Aston Villa and Werder Bremen
I decided to add some more safe combo during the weekend and this is my first one. The most difficult game to predict is the one between Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim currently is second in the Bundesliga, while Werder is standing on spot number 7. Both teams are in form but I'm giving Werder more chance. Twente will face De Graafschap at home, which doesn't have a strong out reputation, thats why my money is on FC Twente. The last game is Aston Villa vs Sunderland. Call it a gut feeling.
Saturday Combo 2 : Combined odd: 4,31 -> Lost
Teams involved: Hamburger SV, Manchester United, Arsenal, Club Brugge and Lyon
5 matches and only an odd of 4,31 says enough I guess. This combo is based on 5 big teams playing at home. A surprise is always possible but the all these teams should be more than capable of keeping the three points at home! To be complete all the games: Hamburger SV - Gladbach, Man U - Bolton, Arsenal - Hull City, Club Brugge - Westerlo and Lyon - Nancy.
Edit: WTF, Arsenal did loose at home against Hull City. Didn't see this coming. Bugger.
Saturday Combo 3: Combined odd: 6,93 -> Lost
Teams involved: Hertha BSC, AZ and Juventus
The most dangerous game is this rather risky combo is Willem II - AZ. My money is on AZ. They gave an excellent performance last weekend against PSV. I know they have the quality but they are not consistent enough but I'm sure that they will take the 3 points back home to Alkmaar. Hertha should not have any problems with Cottbus, last in the Bundesliga. Juventus on the other hand will win in Sampdoria.
Saturday Combo 4: Combined odd: 5,62 -> Won
Teams involved: Auxerre, Villareal and Real Madrid
I think that I don't have to explain why I pick Villareal, away against Sporting Gijon, and Real Madrid, away at Betis. Auxerre is hopefully my accumulator for this combo. They will face Le Havre at home. Early in the season already a relegation match, if Auxerre wants to prologue their stay in Ligue 1 they will have to win these games at home!
Check back Saturday evening for the Sunday bets.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
A: the ante is 5 euro
B: it is not a combo.
Unibet is offering a odd of 2,15 if Wesley Sonck scores. I consider this a value bet! Why? Cause Sonck is at moment in really good shape. Bailly of Genk did some magical thing to withheld Sonck from his first goal of the season. Secondly Akpala, his partner is crime is suspended. Thirdly: I consider Club Brugge at lost stronger then KV Mechelen and I expect some free kicks for Club Brugge, which are excellent chances!
Come on Wesley don't let me down!
Cross your fingers,
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
For Wednesday again 2 combos. Both with a high pay-out so it is a gamble. Also due to time constraints no explanation. Sorry!
Combo 1: Combined odds: 18,32
Teams involved: Hamburger SV, Sevilla, Club Brugge, AC Milan, Manchester City and Mallorca
Combo 1: Combined odds: 10,21
Teams involved: Atletico Madrid, AS Roma and Valencia
Here we go:
Combo 1: combined odds: 4,81
Teams involved: AZ, FC Den Bosch, Nantes and Werder Bremen
AZ is confident after their win over PSV and they will continue this line this evening against Heracles. Fc Den Bosch is one of the tittle candidates in the Dutch Jupiler league, I expect nothing else than a home win. Nantes and Werder Bremen have away games. Bremen has an easy game against Ezgebirge and Nantes will play at Cretiel, both feasible teams for the team from the Bundesliga.
Combo 2: combined odds: 3,28
Teams involved: Eintracht Frankfurt, Arsenal and Manchester United
Arsenal and Man U should have no problems with beating Sheffield United and Middlesbrough. Frankfurt has to face Hasta Rostock, 9th in the second Bundesliga, at home. Frankfurt still has to win a home game this seasin and I hope that they achieve this today!
Edit: Over before it all started. Frankfurt missed a penalty in the last minute. Fuckers, lol!
The Supertoto for tomorrow and this weekend are shown below. First the one for the weekend and then the one for tomorrow:
Come back tomorrow morning for the results and my bets for the Wednesday games.
Monday, September 22, 2008
The start on Friday was excellent with one combo played and one combo won.
The success story continued on Saturday. The downside was that only one of the three combos was a winner but on the positive side the winning combo has the highest combined odds of the 3. It could have been better but
On the supertoto side also everything was going good enough with 6 correct games out of 7.
Sunday was a little bit of a cooler. The fun combo has an excellent start but Everton crushed it, so the Marseille wasn’t important anymore (luckily). Tottenham, yep Tottenham again, blew the second combo, while my fourth combo was chance less (0 out of 3). The last combo (3) for Sunday wasn’t so bad but Sevilla weren’t capable of taking the 3 points home.
On the SuperToto side, I had 2 more games incorrect, so I ended up with 2 tickets of 11 out of 14, good for a pay-out of 1,16€ per ticket (not enough cause the investment was 3,20€). Congrats to the one who cracked the supertoto. He/She was the only one with 14 correct games, good for a pay-out above 112.000€.
I was hard not to create another combo for the Sunday evening games but this is against me own rules. The rule says that I’m not allowed to create last minute combo cause most of the time, these bets are placed to recuperate lost money. To bad cause if would have been a winning combo. Maybe my combo for the Sunday games where to risky.
My betting plans for this week are quiet simple. Tonight and tomorrow I will concentrate on filling in the supertoto. Remember that a lot bookies give a 10% discount if you fill in the supertoto before Thursday, if you do this 10 times in a season you will have your 11th supertoto for free. Also there is on extra Supertoto this week for the midweek games in Italy, England and Spain.
On Tuesday I will see if I'm going to make a combo of 2 for the midweek games and from Wednesday on I will concentrate on the weekend games.
I also hope that you all liked the way I presented the combos on Sunday, cause it is my intention to do it like this. So first a little explanation about the combo(s) to end with a picture if it is more than one combo! Feedback is appreciated, both on the combo and presentation.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Also there are still possibilities with the Supertoto. At the moment we are halfway and I have 6 out of 7 games correct. Only Arsenal did let me down. From the 7 games of tomorrow 3 of have them have 2 correct outcomes, so I am confident!
Let's take a look at the combos for Sunday! First I will give my explanation and at the bottom of the post, you will find all combos visualized (you can enlarge the picture by clinking it)!
Combo 1: Combined odds: 59,34
Team involed: Nancy, Marseille, De Graafschap, FC Twente, SC Heereveen and Everton.
This combo can be called my fun combo for the weekend. It includes 6 games and has a combined odd of 59,34. I can explain this one, it is just a gut feeling!
Combo 2: Combined odds: 9,11
Teams involved: Standard Liege, Barcelona, Sampdoria, Tottenham and Juventus
I think that this one has to most chance of being the winning combo. Okay, it includes 5 games but still it is a feasable one. Standard Liege should not have any problems with Tubize and Tottenham will have an excellent chance of winning their first game of the season. Also Barcelona is desperate for a win, so the away game to Gijon comes at a excellent time. Juventus has an away game at Cagliari, who are under pressure after loosing the first 2 games of the season. I think that Sampdoria has the key for this combo.
Combo 3: Combined odds: 8,87
Teams involved: AC Milan, Sevilla, Valencia and Fiorentina
Looking at the combined odds this combo should have to most chance to survive but the games still have to be played. After 2 games, AC Milan is still chasing their first win, heck they don't even have one point. I hope that Lazio will go home pointless. Fiorentina will host the game against Bologna. I expect that this game will be the key for this combo cause I expect nothing else than a victories from Valencia (against Osasuna) and Sevilla (away at Real Betis).
Combo 4: Combined odds: 29,04
Teams involved: PSG, Hoffenheim and Dortmund, Hamburger SV
Very high odds for a combo with only 3 games. PSG has a difficult away game to St Etienne but I think that they can take the 3 points home with them. There is a lot of pressure on St. Etienne and that would do them any good. Hamburg has the away game to Wolfsburg in front of them. Playing away at Wolfsburgs is never easy but with a victory Hamburger SV will see themselves back at the top of the league. The key to this combo is the expected draw between Hoffenheim and Dortmund. The gap between these teams is only one point at the moment. Normally I never bet on a draw but something tells me that an X is going to be correct.
Friday, September 19, 2008
For this weekend I have planned 8 combos. One for Friday, 3 for Saturday and 4 for Sunday.
Besides planning my bets I'm also working on my stats page and BR movement page, which I hope will be finished this evening. So when you come back tomorrow I will make sure that you can find the links to both pages in one of the right frames. Also I will post my bets for Sunday on Saturday evening. At the moment I'm still not sure if I will play the Supertoto or not. Probably I will, if so it will be posted before noon tomorrow!
Had some problems with creating tables in my blog and to tired to write it all out, so you will have to do it with the jpeg!
As promised my supertoto 14 ticket. I became a 3.20 euro ticket. It is hard to stop ticking boxes when you are busy with it.
Come back tomorrow for my Sunday bets!
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Sorry not to have posted my bets for the Uefa cup first round matches but it were last minutes bets and with a son of 24 days old it isn't always easy to do what you had planned.
I made around 10 combo, good for an ante of 22 euro. My complete BR. Okay, I admit I went a little bit overboard but it paid off big time!
At the moment 2 combos are already won and there is one very nice combo between them. My 1,80 euro became 101,80 euro. I predicted the wins of the following teams within 1 combo correctly: AC Milan, Spartak Moskou, Besiktas, Ajax, Saint Etienne, Braga, CSKA Moscow and Tottenham.
Another successful combo was the predicted win of Spartak Moscow, Galatasaray, Nancy, CSKA Moscos and Tottenham, good for a pay-out of 12,40 euro.
Valencia is winning and only a few minutes to go, which will means that I have 11 out of 12 correct games for the Supertoto. At the moment the pay-out is 4,99 euro but that will increase a little bit. And cause it was a ticket of 6,40 euro it will be multiplied by 2. So another little profit.
Needless to say that I look forward to the weekend.
BR at the moment: 114,29 euros!!!!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
If you have a sportsbetting blog and want to exchange links, drop me a comment. Please also inform me if I did remove your blog by accident! I did check it and the commenting thing is still working (had to check it myself :)). Also other comments are welcome!
Monday, September 15, 2008
Also, there will probably very juicy odds for a home win of Marseille against Liverpool and for Atletico Madrid winning at PSV. But my gut feeling says to stay of these games, so I will.
Due to time constraint no explanation this time.
Also, as an expection I did put 1 euro on Tottenham for this evening. If they win I have one combo for free for tomorrow :).
Because 4 of my 7 selected games will be played on Tuesday, I will create 3 combo. 2 combos with 2 Tuesday games and one combo with the 3 Wednesday games.
Combo 1: combined odds: 3,66
Teams involved: Werder Bremen and Shaktar
Combo 2: combined odds: 1,63
Teams involved: AS Roma and Barcelona
Combo 3: combined odds: 3,51
Teams involved: Celtic Glasgow, Manchester United and Arsenal
Money at stake: 3 euro
Potential Pay-out: 8,08 euro
Potential profit: 5,08 euro
Outstanding bets including these: 13
BR after these bets: 23,26 euro
Friday, September 12, 2008
For this weekend I'm feeling a little bit adventurous. I will be playing 5 combos. 3 combos with 4 games in it and 2 combos with 3 games. Only the first combo can be considered a safe one, the other 4 will have more risk involved. But it is time to bend the curve to a winning curve. No risk, no glory! And lets be honest all bets are a risk.
I will describe the combos below in risk order. The one with the lowest risk, and of course the lowest payout, at the top, the one with the most risk at the bottom. For once it will be not enough to have one combo correct, if Combo 1 is the only one.
Combo 1: combined odds: 2.96
Teams involved: Heereveen, Barcelona, Lyon, Inter
This combo already kicks off on Friday evening with the predicted victory of Heereveen at home against Heracles Almelo. All three other games are on Saturday evening. I expect that Barcelona will have no problems with Racing Santander. Lyon should be capable of waking over Nice and Inter will win their first home game of the season against Catania.
Edit: Heereveen failed to beat Heracles at home. After a blitz start it was 2-0 after 12 minutes. After missing one chance after the other on of the oldest football rules kicked in. We your team misses the chances the other won't.
Combo 2: combined odds: 5.01
Teams involved: Juventus, Bayern Munich, Sevilla, Anderlecht
Juventus host the game against Udinese and I just cannot imagine that Juventus will loose their first home game of the season against a team like Udinese. Anderlecht plays at Mons and will take the three poinst home with a victory with at least a 2 goal difference. Sevilla plays their first home game of the season against Sporting Gijon and will keep the points at home. Bayern Munich faces an always difficult out game at Koln. Koln always plays better against big teams but I think that they are chance less against Bayern M..
Combo 3: combined odds: 7.76
Teams involved: Newcastle, AZ, GBA, PSG
This is my most risk full combo with 4 teams involved. 4 games, all 4 out of another country. AZ will have to beat ADO Den Haag to keep away the crisis which lasted the complete previous season. GBA can be consider the banker in this combo, with the team now complete and getting onto steam they should have no problems with Roeselare. PSG should easily win at Nantes, which is filling in the last position in Ligue 1. Newcastle plays at home against Hull City. No problems expected here for Newcastle.
Combo 4: combined odds: 7.82
Teams involved: AS Roma, AA Gent, KV Mechelen
This combo is mainly based on the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. AA Gent is one of the teams in form and will visit Mouscron, who is leading the championship. But there previous games were all against relegation candidates. KV Mechelen will face Tubize at home. The main target for both teams this season is to stay out of the relegation zone. I tip a win for KV Mechelen with the support of their magnificent home crowd! AS Roma does close this combo with a away game at Palermo. After the mediocre start of the season Roma is out on revenge and will take the points home with them!
Combo 5: combined odds: 11.08
Teams involved: Monaco, Atletico Madrid, Everton
To be honest, this combo is based on a gut feeling. So I can completely understand that you probably don't want to copy this one. But it is a not a swing in the dark. Everton will visit Stoke, one of the new teams within the Premier league. I consider Atletico Madrid one of the outsiders for the Spanish title and I will hope that they will back-up my feeling with a victory at Valladolid. As Monaco will face Lorient at home, I don't see any reason not to include them in this combo!
Money at stake: 5 euro
Pottential Pay-out: 34,63 euro
Pottential profit: 29,63 euro
Outstanding bets including these: 14
BR after these bets: 22,25 euro
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The small win was destroyed by the amazing injury time of Denmark, which was really a surprise to me.
But hey, the weekend is near. So enough new chances :).
I just printed out all the games from the major European Leagues, so tomorrow morning and after work tomorrow you will find my new bets for the weekend.
Also please be so kind to give my blog a boost on the renewed BlogTopListing, by clicking the button at the bottom below.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
France - Serbia: 1
Portugal - Denmark: 1
Sweden - Hungary: 1
Odds: 3,72 (and this is my safest one)
Finland - Germany: 2
Lithuania - Austria: 2
N. Ireland - Tsjechie: 2
Croatia - England: 2
Turky - Belgium: 2
Odds: 18,69 (would be great if this one holds)
Friday, September 05, 2008
I also added 3 more bets to my season bets. I put on euro on the fact that PSV will take its fifth title in a row in the Eredivisie, that Sporting Gijon will relegate and that Atletico Madrid will end in the top 4 in La Primera Division.
Besides that I will post my bets for this weekend later on today or tomorrow morning.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Lets look at the surprises which made the bookies rich this weekend:
Feyenoord lost, AZ lost at home and Ajax failed to win their opening game of the season.
In the Premier League, Liverpool did not win, nor Chelsea did. In Italy it was a graveyard of big favorites, who could please their fans with a predicted easy win. So if I look at all of this, I can be really proud with my profit made this weekend.
If I look back at August, I did not do so great. I went completely overboard with my first bets and lost something around 10 euro on my first day. After that the only was was up. I started with a BR of 50, now my BR is 39,05 with 6 outstanding season bets.
I hope I can fight my way back to my original 50.
Before I post my describe my tips, some advice. Yesterday Ajax lost surprisingly. When reading a sportsbetting forum, I noticed that a lot of peeps out there lost several combos due to this one loss!!! Never put one game in all your tickets. Why should u? There are games enough to choose from!
Here we go with the bets for today:
AC milan - Bologna: 1 No explanation needed I guess.
Aston Villa - Liverpool: 2 I'm hoping that Liverpool wants to make something good after the CL qualification game.
Santander - Sevilla: 2 Just a feeling.
Possible Pay-out: 7,76
Atletico Madrid - Malaga: 1 Should not be a problem for Atletico.
Saint-Etienne - Lyon: 2
Stuttgart - Hannover 96: 1
Possible Pay-out: 5,80
AA Gent - Charlerloi: 1 Gent got their asses kicked in the UEFA quali game and they are determent to make it good for the home crowd.
AZ - NAC Breda: 1 just my favorite team in the Dutch Eredivisie. They have so much potential and want to wipe out last season, which was a disaster.
Roma - Napoli: 1
BR after these bets: 33,25
Potential Pay-out for these bets: 17,84
Outstanding bets: 6 season bets
Saturday, August 30, 2008
BR after these bets: 33,09 EUR
Outstanding bets: 9 (6 season bets)
Possible pay-out for the bets of today: 14,53 EUR
One winning tickets is again enough to make a profit.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
2 days ago my wife gave birth to my first born son! So, due to this major chance in my life, I will not post any bets for this weekend. I will spend the next days with my son and wife and enjoy this beautiful little creature.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Tomorrow the US open starts. So another chance to win or loose a lot of money. Betting on the first round can be tricky.
Let's take a look at the favorites for the mens title. Without looking at the odds 3 names spring into my mind. At number 1. Rafael Nadal. He is winning almost everything. It will be his 6th appearance at the US open, his best result was the quarter final in 2006. So the stats are against him but with the form he is having at the moment, everything is possible.
The second favorite, for me, is Djokovic. It will be his 4th US open. He is hoping to do better then last year, when he lost the final against Federer. I think that Djokovic has a better chance than Nadal. Why? For the players, the Us open is one of the strangest tournaments on the calendar. With lots of noise and movement around the courts and this bother Nadal more than Djokovic.
The third favorite is R. Federer. Federer is seeded as number 2 and will be playing his 9th US open. He won the last 4 editions. Impressive. But will he be capable of saving his disastrous year? I don't think so.
Remeber that Federer and Djokovic can meet each other in the semies. But in the lower half of the table there is also Roddick. Roddick probably face Djokovic in the quarters. And if he is injurie free he always makes a chance. And the odds for Roddick are so juicy (65.00).
So what are the odds for these guys.
Nadal -> 2.40
Djokovic -> 4.00
Federer -> 4.50
The womens table is almost impossible to predict. So many possible winners, which of course increases the odds of all of them. But my advice is to stay away from it. Everybody can win from everybody. It will to much depend on the form of the day.
I myself won't bet on the US open. If I would place a bet then I would put a euro on Roddick.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
For this weekend bets I have selected 12 matches. More or less the same number as last week but this week I will play 4 combos of 3 matches. Also I did print out all the Unibet odds for this weekend matches. I have placed my bets really soon in the week so a lot of these odds will change during the week.
So here is what you all have been waiting on:
This triple bet is based on a win of Liverpool, Germinal Beerschot and Hertha BSC. Liverpool won last weekend but scores the winning goals in the last 10 minutes. Maybe they got more then they deserved. But a home game against Middlesbrough should not be a problem. GBA will face Dender at home, while Hertha will host the game against Bielefeld.
This triple can be worth 3,43€.
Edit: Lost! Both GBA and Hertha weren't capable of winning at home.
This triples kicks off on Friday, when Hannover 96 plays at home against Cottbus. The two other games are played on Saturday. It would be great if Tottenham and Standard Liege both could win their home game. Tottenham has to prove themselves for their home crowd that they stand a chance of competing at the top of the league after the disappointment of last week. Standard has the downside to it will face Liverpool the game after to see who may proceed to the group stage of the Champions league, but Westerlo shouldn't be capable of stealing away some points.
This triple can be worth 3.15€.
Edit: Lost! Hannover failed to beat Cottbus
All three matches within this triple are played on Saturday. Hamburger SV plays their first home game of the season against Karlsruher. After their draw at Bayern Munich I don't expect anything less than a home win. Lokeren, the champions of the draws, will play their first home game against Tubize, which I qualify as the sitting duck in the Jupiler Pro League. The most risking match in this triple is the predicted home win from Hoffenheim against Borussia M'Gladbach. But this increases of course the potential pay-out.
This triple is worth 4.89€.
Edit: Won!!! Thx to the last minute goal of Hamburger SV.
This triple is mainly focussed on the French Ligue 1. Where I predict home wins of Bordeaux against Nantes and Auxerre against Nice. For the third game I'm hoping that Manchester United will wipe out their bad start and will beat Portsmouth during their first away game of the season.
This triple is worth 5.18€.
Triple 1: Liverpool, GBA and Hertha BSC -> 3.43€
Triple 2: Tottenham, Standard Liege and Hannover 96 -> 0€
Triple 3: Hamburger SV, Hoffenheim and Lokeren -> 4.89€
Triple 4: Auxerre, Bordeaux and Manchester United -> 5.18€
Total ante: 4€
Potential pay-out: 16.68€
Everything in one combo: 276,34€
BR after these bets: 30.49€
Monday, August 18, 2008
So instead I will write a little post about OLBG.
Well OLBG is a free betting competition. Here you can pratice your betting style before going to risk your own money. But it gets even better, they pay real cash prizes to the best tipster. They offer bets in all kind of sports and all kind of betting types.
Give it a shot.
Friday, August 15, 2008
My previous bets were terrible, they were placed to quickly without enough time to over think the bets. I will not step into that trap again. These are dream bets for the bookies. Always take your time, one of the major betting rules.
My rule for this season. I cannot wipe out my previous bets and I shouldn't, so my starting BR was 50€. 39€ still remaining, with a few outstanding season bets. I hope to double this BR before the winter break. Like always my maximum bet is 1€.
My betting plans for this weekend are:
- 1 triple toto type bet,
- 4 double toto type bets,
- 10 supertoto bets.
My first action was to print out all 1x2 odds for all the 4 competitions (Ligue 1, Premier League, Bundesliga and the Belgium Jupiler Pro League).
Second actions was to select the games I did want to play. 11 games popped up out of this selection. Based on this I decided to place 5 bets, like placed above. Besides this I will bet 10 supertoto´s on Unibet, costing me 1€. So, my total ante for this weekend will be 6€!
The triple bet consists of 3 wins. I hope that Manchester United, Marseille and AA Gent will win their game. All these games will be played on Sunday. Marseille plays at home against Auxerre. Never an easy game but a team who considers themselves a candidate for the title has to win all their games at home. Also no excuses for Manchester United, which still will play without C. Ronaldo, who faces Newcastle at home. AA Gent is another teams which hope to end within the top of the league.
This bet has a potential pay-out of 2.69€.
Anderlecht and Tottenham. I did combine these 2 games within one combo cause they have the highest odds. A win for Anderlecht is rewarded with a pay-out of 2.60 and a win for Tottenham is still good for 2.25. So this 1€ bet has a potential outcome of 5.85€. So yes it is risky but the possibility that both teams will one are within my eyes high enough to call this the value bet of the weekend. Anderlecht has an away game at Cercle Brugge, the revelation of last season. Surprisingly no of the start players left the team but we all know that the confirmation is always more difficult than the rise. Anderlecht plays already on the first match day a game which will make or break the season, they just can´t afford another blow after the elimination from Europe and the loss of the Belgian Supercup. Tottenham has to difficult away game to Middlesbrough.
Well the second double has a pay-out of 2.92€ and is based on the hope that and Standard Liege and Werder Bremen will win their away game. Both games are played on Saturday. Standard has a relative easy away game to Dender, who are hoping to avoid relegation. W. Bremen has a more difficult away game at Arminia Bielefeld, which I don´t consider a to difficult hurdle.
This double has a pay-out of 2.22€. Chelsea and KRC Genk will kick off the competition with a home game, so both team should win. I consider the home game from Chelsea against Portsmouth relative risk free, but you never know. The other games in this combo is a lot trickier. Genk has to face one of their black beast, namely GBA. But I placed this bet on the knowledge that Genk did some excellent transfers and these guys want to present themselves to the home crowd, while GBA still has to find a good replacement for Losada.
Double 4 is the double with the lowest pay-out (1.95€) and should be the bet with the lowest risk. Both Arsenal and Schalke 04 should win their home games easily. Arsenal has to face West Bromwich, will Schalke hosts the game against Hannover 96.
Triple 1: 2.69 -> Lost. Man U failed!
Double 1: 5.85 -> Lost. Tottenham failed!
Double 2: 2.92 -> Lost. Werder Bremen failed!
Double 3: 2.22 ->
Double 4: 1.95 -> Won!
Total possible pay-out: 15.63€
Total ante: 6€
BR after these bets 33€.
The odds in random order for the individual games:
Cercle Brugge - RSC Anderlecht: 2.60
Dender - Standard Liege: 1.61
Chelsea - Portsmouth: 1.33
Manchester United: Newcastle: 1.28
Marseille - Auxerre: 1.48
AA Gent - Bergen: 1.42
KRC Genk - Germinal Beerschot: 1.70
Arsenal - WBA: 1.22
Middlesbrough - Tottenham: 2.25
Schalke 04 - Hannorver 96: 1.60
Arminia Bielefeld - Werder Bremen: 1.80
If you would combine all these games in one combo it has a pay-out of 198€.
Gl with betting,
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
I deposited 50 euro, so with the 4 already placed season bets my starting BR is 100 euros.
Today I have placed to following bets:
2 correct score bets on Standard Liege vs Liverpool. It can haunt on Sclessin and Liverpool will know it. Both in the advantage of Standard Liege.
Standard Liege - Liverpool: 2-0 -> 45.00
Standard Liege - Liverpool: 2-1 -> 22.00
A combo for the games of today with a potential pay-out of 4.84
Famagusta - Olympiakos: 2
FC Twente - Arsenal: 2
Shaktar Donetsk - Dinamo Zagreb: 1
Another Combo for today with a pay-out of 2.80.
Brann - Marseille: 2
Levski Sofia - Bate: 1
A single bet on Standard Liege again good for a potential pay-out of 6.00.
And one qualification combo with a pay-out of 1.65. Claiming that Shaktar and Marseille will proceed to the group stages.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Well last season the battle for the title lasted until the last match day. Chelsea and Man U entered the last match day with the same points but with a clear goal advantage for the Reds. While Chelsea was hoping that Man U. would loose some points, they only tied against Bolton but due to the win of Man U on Wigan it wouldn't have mattered.
Arsenal ended on the third place and Liverpool disappointed not so much with the 4th place but with the gap between them and the top of the league.
In total the teams of the Premier league spend in total around 388.000.000 €. Yep, you are reading this correct. The biggest spender is Liverpool (62 million €) (Keane 24.000.000€ desperately hoping to close the gap with the top 3, closely followed by Tottenham which bought new players for 61 million €.
Man U on the other hand is very quit on the transfer market. They even made a profit in the middle season of 6.500.000€. Chelsea made a loss of 12 million mostly because they paid around 20 million for Bosingwa of Porto. Arsenal's most expensive transfer is Nasri of Marseille, making Marseilli 16 million richer.
The favorites with their odds:
All odds are for an ante of 1€. Fitst the odd for the team taking the title, followed by the odd for the team to end within the first 4 places.
1. Manchester United ..... 2.25 - 1.01
2. Chelsea ........................ 3.00 - 1.01
3. Arsenal ......................... 5.50 - 1.08
4. Liverpool ...................... 7.50 - 1.16
5. Tottenham .................. 70.00 - 6.00
The relegation candidates with their odds:
1. Hull City ................. 1.33
2. Stoke City .............. 1.40
3. WBA ....................... 2.25
4. Fullham .................. 3.50
5. Bolton ..................... 3.75
My bet will be that Tottenham will end within the first 4. It can happen and the pay-out is great.
Monday, August 11, 2008
There can be so many surprised within a weekend, that it is one of the goldmines of the bookies. Besides Bayern Munich it is also rare to see a team on the top for a decade.
How was it last year?
Well it was no surprise that Fc Bayern Munich took the title after major investments. They did buy player for all lines with as undisputed star, Ribery.
At a considerable distance Werder Bremen took second place, with a 2 point lead on Schalke 04.
On the bottom side of the table, Duisburg, Hansa Rostock and Fc Nurnberg took the dive.
The favorites for this year:
Just like in France, their is only one favorites and that is Fc Bayern Munich. Everybody expect that they will just extend their title. But it will be a strange season for them. It is the first season within Kahn as goalie, which is their biggest loss. On the incoming side they had a calm season the biggest name is Borowski.
According to the bookies, their are 2 outsides. Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen, both hoping to close the gap with Bayern Munich.
Of course with a Dutch head coach, they focussed on the Dutch Market. They bought Engelaar from Twente for 5.500.000 Euro and upcoming star Farfan from PSV for 10 million euros, which is a team transfer record. On the outgoing side it relatively quiet.
Werder focussed on buying promosing players, which should give the team more depth. Probably a good choice cause they only really had to replace Klasnic.
The relegation candidates:
3 relegation spots in the Bundesliga and 3 teams which the bookies think that are rather doesn't have a chance to prolongue their stay in the First Bundesliga. Those are Arminia Bielefeld, Cottbus and last but not least Karlsruher SC.
A team to keep an eye on:
Last year Hoffenheim took the title in the second Bundesliga in their first year in the second Bundesliga. The owner of the team is Hopp, who is one of the founders of SAP, third largest IT company. So you know where the money is coming from. Last year Hoffenheim had the second largest transfer budget in Germany andthey did spend 18.4 miljon euros on players. So a safe bet would be that they won't relegate.
For taking the title:
Fc Bayern Munich -> 1.45
Werder Bremen -> 8.00
Schalke 04 -> 8.00
Wolfsburg -> 35.00
Stuttgart -> 35.00
To end within the first 3:
Fc Bayern Munich -> 1.02
Werder Bremen -> 1.75
Schalke 04 -> 1.90
Wolfsburg -> 4.50
Stuttgart -> 4.50
Hamburg SV -> 5.00
B. Dortmund -> 5.00
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Time for a quick first Olympic bet I would say and due to the status of the BR I need a win. So with an attempt to maximize the value a combo of 4 games.
Ivory Coast - Argentina : 2 (1.50)
Honduras - Italy: 2 (1.30)
China - New Zealand: 1 (1.50)
Brazil - Belgium: 1 (1.35)
Potential pay-out: 3.95 euro.
After this bet, my BR is 1.50 Euro and 5 running bets. 4 season bets and 1 Olympic bet.
When I loose this Olympic bet I think I have to finance my BR a little bit and take it personnal again :).