Looking forward to 2009

Normally people first look back at the previous year and afterward look forward to the next, well I will do it differently. Let’s take a look at my betting year 2009.

The start:
First we have to determine a starting bankroll for next year. At the moment I have a bankroll of 198€. Let’s be honest this is a dull figure to start with. So there are 2 options left (not a third cause a deposit is ruled out.
- Option 1: I will play some more bets this year hoping that my bankroll goes above 200. Not very likely cause there no more football games this year in the major European competitions.
- Option 2: I will bank some of my profit and start with a bankroll of 150€.

I will go for option number 2 for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: This would mean that I would have banked 100 euros in 2008, which is satisfying knowingly that I started with a miserable 50€ and reason number 2 is that this bankroll isn’t high enough to start taking to much risk but big enough to give a comfortable feeling. Everybody has it own comfort zone and 150 certainly is within mine.

The goals:
Well the absolute goal is to have fun and to give watching sports something extra. Another obvious goal is to make some profit. My first idea was to aim for an average profit of 25€ per month. But that would bring my total bankroll on 450€. So a better aim would be an ending bankroll of 500€ , which indicates an average profit of 29,16€ per month. Seems feasible to me but time will tell if it indeed was/is. But as long as my ending bankroll of 2009 is above my starting bankroll, the year will be a success.
A non related bankroll goal is that I should keeping track of statistics. And maybe extend it with a Supertoto part.

My betting rules for 2009:
I think that is is important to have some betting rules in place, where you should stick. Otherwise it is very easy to loose a lot of money when lady luck is against you. For me the next simple rules will go into order from January the 1st 2009.

Rule 1: Combos
In general all my combination bets will have an ante of 1€. I have been playing with the idea to increase this but never executed these plans. I strongly believe in combination betting but not in increasing the ante for this betting type. In general a combination bet may never have an ante of more than 1% of your bankroll. The Risk of Ruin is simply to high for this betting type. Certainly in footballs 1x2 bets.

Rule 2: Single bets.
The golden rule for me will be that a single bet may not be higher than 5% of my bankroll.
This rule is in place to prevent myself from panic betting. Once in a time taking a risk is not a problem, but an impulsive bet with an ante of higher than 5% of my bankroll is for me just out of range.

Rule 3: Supertoto
Cause I like to play the supertoto I also need a rule for this. When my bankroll is increasing I always want to bet more on the Supertoto than I should. Normally I will play with a 3,2€ ticket but in some situation I’m willing to take a higher risk. In these situation the following golden rule kicks in: A supertoto ticket may never cost more than 5% of my current bankroll, with a limit of 12,8€. Another Supertoto rule is that at least 75% of my supertoto tickets should be purchased before Wednesday midnight. This because Unibet gives a 10% discount. Suppose that I will play 40 tickets of 3,2€ and 75% of those tickets are purchased within the discount time frame, this would mean that I only will have to pay for 37 tickets. Sound like peanuts but every euro counts.

Well this is my way ahead. I hope the rules above will get me from going bankrupt and will bring me closer to my goal for 2009. It all depends on hit rate and ROI. After an analysis of my results in 2009 I can hopefully figure out what the best number of games in my combo bets are.

Good luck in 2009 and remember sportsbetting is still gambling. Do it with precautions!

Cheers,
Dremeber

The Jupiler Pro League predictions

Last week I had 4 out of 6 correct. Not bad but it can be better. This evening there are again 6 games. Let's see if we can get them all correct.

AA Gent - KV Kortrijk: 1 (odds: 1,45)
Well normally Gent may not have any problems with defeating Kortrijk but the defense of Gent is the area were the problems are but is possible that these problems will switch to the offense with the injury of their topscorer Olufade. No selection problems for Kortrijk.
Last year Gent won 4-0 at home but that was a cup game. The odds for a Gent win are at the moment around 1,45. Good enough, I would say.

Dender - Lokeren: 2 (odds: 2,30)
When looking at the classification of both team, this should be a no-brainer. Lokeren has besides the best defense of the league also the topscorer. Maazou should be able to score against the second worst defense of the league. Last season Lokeren won with 0-1 and I see them stealing the 3 points at Dender. Also the odds for a win of Lokeren are gigantic, namely 2.30.

Genk - Charlerloi: OVER (odds: 1,65)
Genk always has problems against team from the french part of Belgium. Therefor I don't like the odds for a Genk win, they are only 1,48. Therefor I will play an over 2.5 goals bets, the odds for this bet are a little bit better with 1,65.

Tubize - Mons: OVER (Odds: 1,90)
All sign point into the direction of a victory for Tubize. Mons won last week 5-2 at home against Dender, while Tubize lost 5-1 at Anderlecht. A 1X bet would give odds of 1,48 while an over bet has a value of 1,90. Maybe this over bet is a safer bet. With Perbet in form at Tubize side and Jarju on the side of Mons a lot of goals can be expected.

Westerlo - Cercle Brugge: X2 (odds: 1,72)
A man this one is a though to one to call. Both teams are in shape. At Cercle De Sutter finally is starting to score goals, while Westerlo has with Ruiz the number 6 of the topscorer list. Westerlo still has to loose this season at home, while Cercle is struggling away from home with only 1 victory. For some reason I don't see Cercle loosing this game. So to be safe I going for a x2 bet, with odds of 1,72.

Zulte Waregem - Mouscron: 1 (Odds: 2,05)
Mouscron can't be actually called an away team and never they did steal the 3 points at Zulte. And I don't expect it to change this season. Also zulte will be motivated to win for the first time in the Jupiler Pro League 3 games in a row.

this gives a combined odd of 36,87.

Good luck,
dremeber

Weekend Recap

It was a long time ago that I cashed with the Supertoto and this streak was broken last weekend. I had 2 tickets with 11 out of 14, good for 1,28 euro per ticket. So still a loss but beter than nothing.

I had 4 out of 6 in the Jupiler Pro League. The victory of Roeselare on Westerlo came as a complete surprise to me. The other incorrect prediction was the victory of Mons. This victory was probably but still I had a strong believe that Dender could take the 3 points home with them. Next weekend better, I hope. But like I said before. It is good enough to predict all these games correct 2 or 3 times a season to make a major profit.

Besides the supertoto I had 4 winning tickets, good for a pay-out of 29,53 euros, bringing my monthly profit on 12,91.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Jupiler Pro League Saturday games preview

Well after lady luck helped me last Saturday by granting me the wisdom to predict all 6 games of the Jupiler Pro league (Belgiums first division) correct, I did find maybe something useful to put on this blog. At last, it became time after 170 posts :).

From this week on I will try to predict all the Saturday games from the JPL. Last week 1 euro was good for a pay-out of 57,90 euros. So I complete the season without any worries. I also can cope with the fact that it will probably only happens 2 or 3 times a season that I can manage this. I hope that I can fund this fun thingy with the profit from the other bets and that with this I can give the world some more inside information from the JPL.

To increase my odds I will allow myself to use all types of bets!

Well there are 6 games this saturday.
Anderlecht - Tubeke: over 2.5 (odds: 1,40)
Well this is maybe the easiest one to predict this matchday. Anderlecht (2) will should have no problems with Tubize (14). They have never faced each other before in the JPL. It is also the game of the best defense against the worst defense of the league. To increase the odds I will go for the over 2.5 goals bet, good for an odd of 1.40 instead of 1.13 for an Anderlecht win.

Germinal Beerschot - Mouscron: 1 (odds: 2,20)
This game has been played already 9 times before and GBA did win 5 of these encouters, loosing 2 and drawing another 2. Last season when GBA was playing on a cloud, they beat Mouscron with 3-0. This season is another story for GBA, currently firmly on a relegation place while Mouscron is one of the relevation (6th). But Mouscron isn't an away team. I could on the Antheunis effect, which could take effect any moment now! GBA will win!

Standard Liege - Zulte Waregem: over 2.5 (odds: 1,57)
Standard, third, will face Zulte Waregem at home. This is a game with always someting happening. Standard will see some negative influence of the splendid victory against Sampdoria, while Zulte is trying to break the negative spiral of outgames (lost their last 2). In normal conditions standard should win this easely but I would put a dime on it with odds of 1,30 for a win. The odds for over 2.5 goals is more appealing (1,57).

Roesalare - Westerlo: x2 (odds: 1,30)
Westerlo is currently standing on a fifth place, well above expectations, Roeselare is currently last, a little bit below expectations. In the last 3 encouters the scores were: 0-2, 2-0 and 0-2. So according to the pattern I should go for a win of Roeselare. But I will be going for a draw or a victory for Westerlo. Westerlo has a well balanced team with all decent players and some young rising stars like their striker, Ruiz, who will score at least once. You could also go for a win of Westerlo, which will increase the odds to 2,15.

Mons - Dender: 2 (odds: 3,35)
Ever before the season everybody already knew that this is a relegation game, or like we call it in Belgium a 6 points game. The gap in the league is also 3 points in favor of Dender. Mons fired their head coach this week after a discussion with one of their star player. So the players of Mons are will motivated to prove to the interim coach and the possible head coach for the remainder of the season that there are worth their place on the pitch. Still I'm going to put my money on dender, maybe they have lesser quality in their team but a much better/experienced coach, wich is much more important in such games.

Charlerloi - KV Mechelen: x2 (odds: 2,03)
KVM is struggling this season, but praise to their board, who are keeping to defend the head coach. But the head-to-head stats are against them, loosing 5 out of 6. Last season the game ended on 1-0 for Charlerloi, but this season I see KVM going home with 3 points. To cover my ass a little bit I will go for x2, which has a decent odd of 2,03.

The combined odds for this combe are 42,96. As always my bet is a 1 euro bet.
I also have created an alternative, which is more based on my heart then on stats and info. The combined odd of this is 444.

Good luck,
Dremeber

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