Sunday, August 31, 2008

Weekend and August Recap

It was a good weekend ... for the bookies I guess. A lot of people will not have won with their combos due to all the surprises divided among all the major leagues. But I may not complain cause I came out as a winner. Today Lyon, Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid assured my profit. This combo was worth 5.80Eur. Meaning a 2.80 Eur profit for the day and a profit of around 4 eur for the weekend.

Lets look at the surprises which made the bookies rich this weekend:
Feyenoord lost, AZ lost at home and Ajax failed to win their opening game of the season.
In the Premier League, Liverpool did not win, nor Chelsea did. In Italy it was a graveyard of big favorites, who could please their fans with a predicted easy win. So if I look at all of this, I can be really proud with my profit made this weekend.

If I look back at August, I did not do so great. I went completely overboard with my first bets and lost something around 10 euro on my first day. After that the only was was up. I started with a BR of 50, now my BR is 39,05 with 6 outstanding season bets.

I hope I can fight my way back to my original 50.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Bets 31-08

Yesterday I made a small profit of 1.16 EURO. It seems small but it was more than 35% of the ante, so thats fine. For today i have again 3 bets. All of them have great pay-outs, which of course is related with th risk level.

Before I post my describe my tips, some advice. Yesterday Ajax lost surprisingly. When reading a sportsbetting forum, I noticed that a lot of peeps out there lost several combos due to this one loss!!! Never put one game in all your tickets. Why should u? There are games enough to choose from!

Here we go with the bets for today:
Combo 1:
AC milan - Bologna: 1 No explanation needed I guess.
Aston Villa - Liverpool: 2 I'm hoping that Liverpool wants to make something good after the CL qualification game.
Santander - Sevilla: 2 Just a feeling.
Possible Pay-out: 7,76

Combo 2:
Atletico Madrid - Malaga: 1 Should not be a problem for Atletico.
Saint-Etienne - Lyon: 2
Stuttgart - Hannover 96: 1
Possible Pay-out: 5,80

Combo 3:
AA Gent - Charlerloi: 1 Gent got their asses kicked in the UEFA quali game and they are determent to make it good for the home crowd.
AZ - NAC Breda: 1 just my favorite team in the Dutch Eredivisie. They have so much potential and want to wipe out last season, which was a disaster.
Roma - Napoli: 1
Pay-out: 4,28


BR after these bets: 33,25
Potential Pay-out for these bets: 17,84
Outstanding bets: 6 season bets


Good luck,
Dremeber

Saturday, August 30, 2008

My bets 30-08

Just a quick update. I will quickly post my bets for today. No explain due to the reason explained in the previous post.




















BR after these bets: 33,09 EUR
Outstanding bets: 9 (6 season bets)
Possible pay-out for the bets of today: 14,53 EUR

One winning tickets is again enough to make a profit.

Good Luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, August 28, 2008

And suddenly sportsbetting became ...

... not so important any more.
2 days ago my wife gave birth to my first born son! So, due to this major chance in my life, I will not post any bets for this weekend. I will spend the next days with my son and wife and enjoy this beautiful little creature.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Sunday, August 24, 2008

US open 2008

After a rather succesful weekend on the footbal front. Hey I made a profit and it doesn't matter how small it is, it is a profit and progress compared to last weekend. It can become even a big profit if my last combo is correct. But we will have to see.

Tomorrow the US open starts. So another chance to win or loose a lot of money. Betting on the first round can be tricky.

Let's take a look at the favorites for the mens title. Without looking at the odds 3 names spring into my mind. At number 1. Rafael Nadal. He is winning almost everything. It will be his 6th appearance at the US open, his best result was the quarter final in 2006. So the stats are against him but with the form he is having at the moment, everything is possible.
The second favorite, for me, is Djokovic. It will be his 4th US open. He is hoping to do better then last year, when he lost the final against Federer. I think that Djokovic has a better chance than Nadal. Why? For the players, the Us open is one of the strangest tournaments on the calendar. With lots of noise and movement around the courts and this bother Nadal more than Djokovic.
The third favorite is R. Federer. Federer is seeded as number 2 and will be playing his 9th US open. He won the last 4 editions. Impressive. But will he be capable of saving his disastrous year? I don't think so.
Remeber that Federer and Djokovic can meet each other in the semies. But in the lower half of the table there is also Roddick. Roddick probably face Djokovic in the quarters. And if he is injurie free he always makes a chance. And the odds for Roddick are so juicy (65.00).

So what are the odds for these guys.
Nadal -> 2.40
Djokovic -> 4.00
Federer -> 4.50

The womens table is almost impossible to predict. So many possible winners, which of course increases the odds of all of them. But my advice is to stay away from it. Everybody can win from everybody. It will to much depend on the form of the day.

I myself won't bet on the US open. If I would place a bet then I would put a euro on Roddick.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Weekend 22-24 August bets

Last week my bets weren't as good as I hope for. Only one gold combination to minimize the losses. So this weekend bets have to be better. Maybe you expected some tips for this week International Friendlies but I have learned not to bet on friendlies. You will see that a lot a coaches are experimenting, other countries have appointed new coaches and others need to fill in gaps of players who resigned from the international competition. So to much factors are into play to make some save bets.

For this weekend bets I have selected 12 matches. More or less the same number as last week but this week I will play 4 combos of 3 matches. Also I did print out all the Unibet odds for this weekend matches. I have placed my bets really soon in the week so a lot of these odds will change during the week.

So here is what you all have been waiting on:
Triple 1:
This triple bet is based on a win of Liverpool, Germinal Beerschot and Hertha BSC. Liverpool won last weekend but scores the winning goals in the last 10 minutes. Maybe they got more then they deserved. But a home game against Middlesbrough should not be a problem. GBA will face Dender at home, while Hertha will host the game against Bielefeld.
This triple can be worth 3,43€.
Edit: Lost! Both GBA and Hertha weren't capable of winning at home.

Triple 2:
This triples kicks off on Friday, when Hannover 96 plays at home against Cottbus. The two other games are played on Saturday. It would be great if Tottenham and Standard Liege both could win their home game. Tottenham has to prove themselves for their home crowd that they stand a chance of competing at the top of the league after the disappointment of last week. Standard has the downside to it will face Liverpool the game after to see who may proceed to the group stage of the Champions league, but Westerlo shouldn't be capable of stealing away some points.
This triple can be worth 3.15€.
Edit: Lost! Hannover failed to beat Cottbus

Triple 3:
All three matches within this triple are played on Saturday. Hamburger SV plays their first home game of the season against Karlsruher. After their draw at Bayern Munich I don't expect anything less than a home win. Lokeren, the champions of the draws, will play their first home game against Tubize, which I qualify as the sitting duck in the Jupiler Pro League. The most risking match in this triple is the predicted home win from Hoffenheim against Borussia M'Gladbach. But this increases of course the potential pay-out.
This triple is worth 4.89€.
Edit: Won!!! Thx to the last minute goal of Hamburger SV.

Triple 4:
This triple is mainly focussed on the French Ligue 1. Where I predict home wins of Bordeaux against Nantes and Auxerre against Nice. For the third game I'm hoping that Manchester United will wipe out their bad start and will beat Portsmouth during their first away game of the season.
This triple is worth 5.18€.

The resume:
Triple 1: Liverpool, GBA and Hertha BSC -> 3.43€
Triple 2: Tottenham, Standard Liege and Hannover 96 -> 0€
Triple 3: Hamburger SV, Hoffenheim and Lokeren -> 4.89€
Triple 4: Auxerre, Bordeaux and Manchester United -> 5.18€

Total ante: 4€
Potential pay-out: 16.68€
Everything in one combo: 276,34€

BR after these bets: 30.49€

Good luck,
Dremeber

Monday, August 18, 2008

Online betting Guide

I did plan to post my bets for next week already but ... my bookies didn't had the odds yet. Most of the time if you plan to bet on the favorites it is better to place your bet as soon as possible. Most of the time the odds drop when more and more people are placing their bets. Remember that these odds (and the money placed) should balance each other.

Improve your betting with OLBG Betting School
So instead I will write a little post about OLBG.
Well OLBG is a free betting competition. Here you can pratice your betting style before going to risk your own money. But it gets even better, they pay real cash prizes to the best tipster. They offer bets in all kind of sports and all kind of betting types.

Give it a shot.
Dremeber

Friday, August 15, 2008

Let's get started!

After this weekend 4 major, okay 3 and Belgium, competitions are on its way. The first match days the bookies are offering always great odds.
My previous bets were terrible, they were placed to quickly without enough time to over think the bets. I will not step into that trap again. These are dream bets for the bookies. Always take your time, one of the major betting rules.

My rule for this season. I cannot wipe out my previous bets and I shouldn't, so my starting BR was 50€. 39€ still remaining, with a few outstanding season bets. I hope to double this BR before the winter break. Like always my maximum bet is 1€.
No exceptions!!!!

My betting plans for this weekend are:
- 1 triple toto type bet,
- 4 double toto type bets,
- 10 supertoto bets.

My first action was to print out all 1x2 odds for all the 4 competitions (Ligue 1, Premier League, Bundesliga and the Belgium Jupiler Pro League).
Second actions was to select the games I did want to play. 11 games popped up out of this selection. Based on this I decided to place 5 bets, like placed above. Besides this I will bet 10 supertoto´s on Unibet, costing me 1€. So, my total ante for this weekend will be 6€!

Triple:
The triple bet consists of 3 wins. I hope that Manchester United, Marseille and AA Gent will win their game. All these games will be played on Sunday. Marseille plays at home against Auxerre. Never an easy game but a team who considers themselves a candidate for the title has to win all their games at home. Also no excuses for Manchester United, which still will play without C. Ronaldo, who faces Newcastle at home. AA Gent is another teams which hope to end within the top of the league.
This bet has a potential pay-out of 2.69€.

Double 1:
Anderlecht and Tottenham. I did combine these 2 games within one combo cause they have the highest odds. A win for Anderlecht is rewarded with a pay-out of 2.60 and a win for Tottenham is still good for 2.25. So this 1€ bet has a potential outcome of 5.85€. So yes it is risky but the possibility that both teams will one are within my eyes high enough to call this the value bet of the weekend. Anderlecht has an away game at Cercle Brugge, the revelation of last season. Surprisingly no of the start players left the team but we all know that the confirmation is always more difficult than the rise. Anderlecht plays already on the first match day a game which will make or break the season, they just can´t afford another blow after the elimination from Europe and the loss of the Belgian Supercup. Tottenham has to difficult away game to Middlesbrough.

Double 2:
Well the second double has a pay-out of 2.92€ and is based on the hope that and Standard Liege and Werder Bremen will win their away game. Both games are played on Saturday. Standard has a relative easy away game to Dender, who are hoping to avoid relegation. W. Bremen has a more difficult away game at Arminia Bielefeld, which I don´t consider a to difficult hurdle.

Double 3:
This double has a pay-out of 2.22€. Chelsea and KRC Genk will kick off the competition with a home game, so both team should win. I consider the home game from Chelsea against Portsmouth relative risk free, but you never know. The other games in this combo is a lot trickier. Genk has to face one of their black beast, namely GBA. But I placed this bet on the knowledge that Genk did some excellent transfers and these guys want to present themselves to the home crowd, while GBA still has to find a good replacement for Losada.

Double 4:
Double 4 is the double with the lowest pay-out (1.95€) and should be the bet with the lowest risk. Both Arsenal and Schalke 04 should win their home games easily. Arsenal has to face West Bromwich, will Schalke hosts the game against Hannover 96.

The pay-outs:
Triple 1: 2.69 -> Lost. Man U failed!
Double 1: 5.85 -> Lost. Tottenham failed!
Double 2: 2.92 -> Lost. Werder Bremen failed!
Double 3: 2.22 ->
Double 4: 1.95 -> Won!

Total possible pay-out: 15.63€
Total ante: 6€

BR after these bets 33€.

The odds in random order for the individual games:
Cercle Brugge - RSC Anderlecht: 2.60
Dender - Standard Liege: 1.61
Chelsea - Portsmouth: 1.33
Manchester United: Newcastle: 1.28
Marseille - Auxerre: 1.48
AA Gent - Bergen: 1.42
KRC Genk - Germinal Beerschot: 1.70
Arsenal - WBA: 1.22
Middlesbrough - Tottenham: 2.25
Schalke 04 - Hannorver 96: 1.60
Arminia Bielefeld - Werder Bremen: 1.80
If you would combine all these games in one combo it has a pay-out of 198€.

Gl with betting,
Dremeber

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

CL qualifion bets

Today I did start my new BR, which should last for the complete Football season.
I deposited 50 euro, so with the 4 already placed season bets my starting BR is 100 euros.

Today I have placed to following bets:
2 correct score bets on Standard Liege vs Liverpool. It can haunt on Sclessin and Liverpool will know it. Both in the advantage of Standard Liege.
Standard Liege - Liverpool: 2-0 -> 45.00
Standard Liege - Liverpool: 2-1 -> 22.00

A combo for the games of today with a potential pay-out of 4.84
Famagusta - Olympiakos: 2
FC Twente - Arsenal: 2
Shaktar Donetsk - Dinamo Zagreb: 1

Another Combo for today with a pay-out of 2.80.
Brann - Marseille: 2
Levski Sofia - Bate: 1

A single bet on Standard Liege again good for a potential pay-out of 6.00.

And one qualification combo with a pay-out of 1.65. Claiming that Shaktar and Marseille will proceed to the group stages.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Preview Premier League 2008/2009

How was it last season?
Well last season the battle for the title lasted until the last match day. Chelsea and Man U entered the last match day with the same points but with a clear goal advantage for the Reds. While Chelsea was hoping that Man U. would loose some points, they only tied against Bolton but due to the win of Man U on Wigan it wouldn't have mattered.

Arsenal ended on the third place and Liverpool disappointed not so much with the 4th place but with the gap between them and the top of the league.

The transfers:
In total the teams of the Premier league spend in total around 388.000.000 €. Yep, you are reading this correct. The biggest spender is Liverpool (62 million €) (Keane 24.000.000€ desperately hoping to close the gap with the top 3, closely followed by Tottenham which bought new players for 61 million €.
Man U on the other hand is very quit on the transfer market. They even made a profit in the middle season of 6.500.000€. Chelsea made a loss of 12 million mostly because they paid around 20 million for Bosingwa of Porto. Arsenal's most expensive transfer is Nasri of Marseille, making Marseilli 16 million richer.

The favorites with their odds:
All odds are for an ante of 1€. Fitst the odd for the team taking the title, followed by the odd for the team to end within the first 4 places.

1. Manchester United ..... 2.25 - 1.01
2. Chelsea ........................ 3.00 - 1.01
3. Arsenal ......................... 5.50 - 1.08
4. Liverpool ...................... 7.50 - 1.16
5. Tottenham .................. 70.00 - 6.00

The relegation candidates with their odds:
1. Hull City ................. 1.33
2. Stoke City .............. 1.40
3. WBA ....................... 2.25
4. Fullham .................. 3.50
5. Bolton ..................... 3.75

My bet will be that Tottenham will end within the first 4. It can happen and the pay-out is great.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Monday, August 11, 2008

Preview Bundesliga 2008/2009

One of the competitions kicking of this weekend is the Bundesliga. One of the most difficult competitions to predict within in Europe.

There can be so many surprised within a weekend, that it is one of the goldmines of the bookies. Besides Bayern Munich it is also rare to see a team on the top for a decade.


How was it last year?
Well it was no surprise that Fc Bayern Munich took the title after major investments. They did buy player for all lines with as undisputed star, Ribery.
At a considerable distance Werder Bremen took second place, with a 2 point lead on Schalke 04.
On the bottom side of the table, Duisburg, Hansa Rostock and Fc Nurnberg took the dive.

The favorites for this year:
Just like in France, their is only one favorites and that is Fc Bayern Munich. Everybody expect that they will just extend their title. But it will be a strange season for them. It is the first season within Kahn as goalie, which is their biggest loss. On the incoming side they had a calm season the biggest name is Borowski.

The outsiders:
According to the bookies, their are 2 outsides. Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen, both hoping to close the gap with Bayern Munich.
Schalke 04:
Of course with a Dutch head coach, they focussed on the Dutch Market. They bought Engelaar from Twente for 5.500.000 Euro and upcoming star Farfan from PSV for 10 million euros, which is a team transfer record. On the outgoing side it relatively quiet.
Werder Bremen:
Werder focussed on buying promosing players, which should give the team more depth. Probably a good choice cause they only really had to replace Klasnic.

The relegation candidates:
3 relegation spots in the Bundesliga and 3 teams which the bookies think that are rather doesn't have a chance to prolongue their stay in the First Bundesliga. Those are Arminia Bielefeld, Cottbus and last but not least Karlsruher SC.

A team to keep an eye on:
Last year Hoffenheim took the title in the second Bundesliga in their first year in the second Bundesliga. The owner of the team is Hopp, who is one of the founders of SAP, third largest IT company. So you know where the money is coming from. Last year Hoffenheim had the second largest transfer budget in Germany andthey did spend 18.4 miljon euros on players. So a safe bet would be that they won't relegate.

The odds:
For taking the title:
Fc Bayern Munich -> 1.45
Werder Bremen -> 8.00
Schalke 04 -> 8.00
Wolfsburg -> 35.00
Stuttgart -> 35.00

To end within the first 3:
Fc Bayern Munich -> 1.02
Werder Bremen -> 1.75
Schalke 04 -> 1.90
Wolfsburg -> 4.50
Stuttgart -> 4.50
Hamburg SV -> 5.00
B. Dortmund -> 5.00

Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, August 07, 2008

First Olympic Bet

While the opening ceremony still has to start, the games are already started. Yesterday the ladies kicked off the games and today the U-23 mens follow.

Time for a quick first Olympic bet I would say and due to the status of the BR I need a win. So with an attempt to maximize the value a combo of 4 games.
Ivory Coast - Argentina : 2 (1.50)
Honduras - Italy: 2 (1.30)
China - New Zealand: 1 (1.50)
Brazil - Belgium: 1 (1.35)
Potential pay-out: 3.95 euro.

After this bet, my BR is 1.50 Euro and 5 running bets. 4 season bets and 1 Olympic bet.
When I loose this Olympic bet I think I have to finance my BR a little bit and take it personnal again :).

Good luck,
Dremeber

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Preview La ligue 1 2008/2009

Ligue 1Last season:
For the 7th time in a row Lyon took the French title. Very impressive in such a heavy league as the French ligue 1. But the gap is closing compared to the titles of 2 and 3 years ago. Will this be the last in the series? Bordeaux ended in a comfortable second place, 13 points before Marseille who took the ticket for the third qualifying round of the CL. Marseille had an impressive comeback when Eric Gerets took over but still the CL qualifying round ticket was a gift from Nancy, who lost during the last match day from Rennes.

On the bottom side of the table the third relegation place was also decided on the last match day. Due to a victory of Toulouse @ Valenciennes it was Lens, who joined Strasbourg and Metz to la ligue 2.

The favorites:
Lyon: Maybe only one real favorite and that is like always Olympic Lyon. 7 titles in a row. Wow. The only problem is that the odds for Lyon becoming again the French Champions are not good odds. For each euro invested you will get 1.60 in return.

The outsiders:
The bookies and also I see 2 outsides. Outsides is maybe a misplaced term and maybe they should belong to the list of favorites but due to the history and the 7 consecutive titles of Lyon there can be only 1 favorite.

Marseille: Juicy odds for Marseille if they take the title. The odd is 4.75. Very close to a good value bet. Their coach E. Gerets declared that he aim to take the title. He got the players he asked for, so he himself doesn't see any excuses if they don't.

Bordeaux: Runner up last year and in the season 2005/2006. Due to a bad start of Lyon and some ties of Lyon again at the end of the season the gap was only 4 points. I expect that they will loose to much points if due to the CL. The odds for Bordeaux taking the tittle is 6.50.

The one nominated for relegation:
There are 3 relegation places in the French competition and there are 2 teams who make a big chance of leaving Ligue 1 after only 1 season. And these are Grenoble and Le Havre.

The odds:












Title Place 1-3
Lyon 1.60 1.10
Marseille 4.75 1.65
Bordeaux 6.50 1.90
PSG 20.00 4.00
Saint Etienne 30.00 4.00
















Relegation
Grenoble 1.30
Le Havre 1.65
Caen 2.40


Good luck,
Dremeber

Monday, August 04, 2008

Anderlecht to qualify for the CL group stage?

I know it can be a gamble. But hey isn't all sports betting gambling?

Unibet is offering a great odd if RSC Anderlecht manages to qualify for the CL. They are giving back 5 Euro for each Euro invested. After last game I was baffled that they lost against Bate. So also had so many lame excuses but still I think that they have a much better team than Bate. Don't forget that Anderlecht is still preparing season 2008-2009 while Bate already has played a dozen of league games. So, yes it can be a long shot but I give it more than 50% chance of happening, so in my eyes the odds are appealing.

I'm now going to look for some nice value bets for the Olympics. But first of all I have to fund my BR again. After the lousy TDF and some misfortune in some other bets my BR almost dried out.

Cheers,
Dremeber