Match Day 30 December 2007

Last bets of the year. My chance to further improve my December stats, which are acceptable.

This weekend only matches in the Premier League and the Eredivisie will be played.

Premier League

Chelsea(2) - Fulham FC(12) (Lost)
Second home game in 4 days at home for Chelsea. Chelsea lost 4 points at home in the last 3 games a draw against Arsenal and one against Reading (a surprise to me). Fulham on the other side wasn't capable of winning one of their last 6 away games. Chelsea cannot afford themselves to loose points again at home in their chase of Manchester United. Morinho will motivate his troops so that they will end the year with a victory.
Sheffield United(17) - Arsenal(3) (Lost)
Sheffield United is one of the strange team is you compare the points which they collected at home with the points collected away, they collected as many points away from home as at home namely 10. Arsenal has a strange season concerning the away games, they only won 5 out of 10 and lost 4. Not good enough for a team which claims to fight for the title. However the last 2 away games were won and they should be capable of extending this streak with one.

In Holland the match day 20 is spread over 3 days, starting today and ending on sunday.
Excelsior(14) - Feyenoord(5) (Won)
Again a derby for Feyenoord. Feyenoord is in form, proving this is the 1-1 draw against PSV. Excelsior lost their last 5 games and I'm afraid for them that they can another one after today. No doubt Feyenoord will win this one.
NEC(11) - Ajax(2) (Lost)
After the loss of AZ Ajax is back in second position. NEC at home is a though opponent to face, ask Feyenoord who lost there 4-1 this season. Also the last away game from Ajax was a disaster (4-2 loss at Vitesse) but after the convincing win against Roda at home they are back on track and determined to close the year on the second place.
AZ(3) - Roda JC(12) (Over @ 1.50) (Won)
For the first time this year AZ was not capable in scoring. the result was a 3-0 loss at Twente.
7 of the 9 home games AZ played this year was Over 2.5. The game against Roda has a history with lot of goals. In the last 9 encouters between these teams with AZ playing at home 29 times was scored and 5 games of them were Over. AZ wants the end this year with a win and preferably a big one, so I bet on Over.

Okay now the 5 bets are selected. I will make 2 single bets and 1 combo. Also I will add a new line to my stats to include my single bets.
Single 1 -> 2€ at AZ Over -> Won pay-out 3€ (Profit 1)
Single 2 -> 2€ at Feyenoord -> Won Pay-out 2.86€ (Profit 0.86€)
Combo 1 -> 2€ at Ajax, Chelsea and Arsenal -> Possible pay-out 5.76€ -> Lost (Lost 2€)

Total at stake: 6€
Possible Pay-out: 11.62€
Actual Pay-out: 5.86€ -> Actual loss/profit 0.14€

Good Luck,
European Sports Betting

Single bet today

I have to change my strategy. While I have an acceptable percentage of good bets always something goes wrong in my combos. Therefor, I will downscale my combos and do some single bets instead.

For today only 1 bet for the Dutch Eredivisie.

Fc Utrecht - Heracles Almelo -> Lost
I have placed 5€ @ 1.40 on FC Utrecht. So if won I would win 2 hole euros.
Why Utrecht? For the moment Utrecht has never lost at home against Heracles. Heracles also lost their 6 last away games. All with at least a 2 goal difference. Utrecht, on the other side, won their 4 last home games. Reason enough to believe that Utrecht will win this game.

Good Luck,
European Sports Betting

Match day 26 December 2006

First of all I want to wish all my reader a Merry Christmas. Por mi lectores espagnoles: Feliz Navidad. En natuurlijk een Zalig Kerstmis.

Within the Netherlands the match day is divided over 26 and 27 of Decemeber.
FC Groningen(7) - Sparta Rotterdam (14) (Lost)
The head to head is in balance. The form is Groningen at the moment is not what it supposed to be. They lost their last 2 home games against PSV and ADO. While Sparta is playing a lot better than in the beginning of the season I still have a firm believe that Groningen will win this one.
FC Utrecht(11) - Heracles Almelo(15) (Lost)
The head to head stats tell us that Heracles was never capable of winning in Utrecht. This season they were even not capable of winning away from home which explain their position just above the relagation places. Utrecht on the other side won 6 of their 9 home games, including their last 4 one. I think that they will extend their home winning streak with one more.

This Dutch Como has a possible value of 2.03€. Ok not much but I have to start winning some combos again.

Premier League
Also no winter break within the Premier League.
Both Man U and Chelsea have a relatively easy home games against Wigan and Reading.
Chelsea(2) - Reading(9) (Lost)
A team like Chelsea should win all it home games regardless of who the opponent is. They should not have any problems within Reading at home.
Manchester United(1) - Wigan(13) (Won)
Manchester cannot afford it to loose points at home against Wigan and they won't after the scoreless draw lost weekend. They are feeling the hot air of Chelsea in their necks.
Watford(20) - Arsenal(4) (Won)
Nobody knows what is wrong with Arsenal away from home. A team who wants to win the tittle cannot be satified with only 4 wins in 9 away games. Against Watford they have a chance to start the second part of the competition with a away win.

This combo os worth 1.93€.

I strongly believe that there is a good chance that both combos will be won. Let's see.

Good Luck,
European Sports Betting

Weekend 23-24 December 2006


In some European Countries the winter break has already started like Belgium, Germany and Spain, other countries like France and Italy have only one match day left this year before stopping their competition for a few weeks. And then you have the though ones like England who don't stop their league.

Cause it is alsmost Christmas 4 combos for this weekend. One per country where the competition is still playing.

Premier League
Fulham(11) - West Ham United(Lost)
Fulham will win for the first time at home against West Ham this weekend. West Ham surprised last week with winning at home against Manchester United. But the effect of the manager change is gone now. Also from the 9 away games they played they lost 8 and drew once.
Liverpool(3) - Watford(20) (Won)
This season Liverpool hasn't lost at home within the Premier League. 7 of the 9 home game were won. They should not have any problem against relegation candidate number 1 Watford, who weren't capable of winning away from home.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 2.87€. -> Lost

Ligue 1
Lyon(1) - Monaco(14) (Lost)
Lyon is far out the best team in the Ligue 1. Monaco used to be a top team in France but this year they are only 14th in the ligue. No doubt that Lyon will win this and if not it will be the surprise of the weekend.
Toulouse(11) - Nantes(19) (Lost)
The last victory of Nantes is from the 28th of October (at home against Monaco). Toulouse never looses 2 home games in a row and last game was lost against RC Lens. This midweek they lost against Le Mans. So it is time to win again which they will do.
Valenciennes(16) - Sedan(20) (Won)
Last year almost around the same time the score was 1-1. But this year it will be a victory for Valenciennes. The stats for Sedan away from home are not even worth mentioning while Valenciennes won 5 of their 8 home games. With a win Valenciennes moves up to the middle of the ligue away from the relegation places.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 4.31€. -> Lost

Inter(1) - Atalanta(9) (Won)
Inter leads the Seri A with 7 points more than the number 2 AS Roma. At home they didn't loose yet and also will not loose this weekend against Atalanta Bergamo, currently standing on the 9th place. Atalanta only won once away from home.
As Roma(2) - Cagliari(14) (Won)
Roma won their last 5 home games while Cagliari wasn't capable of winning one of their last six away games. So no doubt that Roma will win to keep putting pressure on Inter.
Siena(12) - Palermo(3) (Lost)
Palermo is currently third in the Seri A. A surprise to me. This weekend they will be visiting Siena who, strange but true, wins more games away from home than at home.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 3.49€. -> Lost

Feyenoord(5) - Sparta Rotterdam(14) (Won)
Feyenoord won their last 5 home games within the Dutch Eredivisie. This game is more than a derby cause Spata normally plays with a lot of loaned players from Feyenoord. This is the time for Feyenoord to prove that they are the number one within Rotterdam.
Vitesse(10) - Ajax(3) (Lost)
Ajax has to win to keep chasing AZ. PSV is already out of range with 8 points more than Ajax. A few weeks ago Ajax was strunggling but now with Huntelaar back on target they cannot loose in Arnhem (the home city of Vitesse).
Az(2) - NEC Nijmegen(7) (Over @1.40) -> Lost
7 out of 8 home games were over. I see no reason why not more than 2 goals will be scored within this match.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 2.71€. -> Lost

In total my biggest bet ever for one match day :). 4 times a 1€ bet which can turn into 13.38€.

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Good Luck,
European Sports Betting

Midweek 20 December 2006

Hi all,

My weekend was not so bad but it could have been better if club Brugge hadn't lost . Did not see this one comming. Maybe it wasn't so smart to bet on a derby. It has learned my a lesson, let's see how long I will remeber this.

This midweek there is a lot of cup football and in Italy ans Spain a complete match day is played. While Barcelona maybe seems like nice odds I won't play them because of the possible jetlag.

Palermo(3) - Ascoli(18) (Won)
Ascoli wasn't capable yet of winning away from home and this will not change this match day. Palermo won 6 of their 8 last home games and lost the other 2. Palermo should have problems with Ascoli.

Primera Divsion
Real Madrid(3) - Recreativo de Huelva(8) (Lost)
If Real wins they will be at least one calendar day in front of rval Barcelona. This will motivate them enough to go for the win. After some lousy home games, Real now has a nice streak of 4 home wins in a row and they are going to extend this streak.
Sevilla(1) - Deportivo La Coruna(14) (Won)
Sevilla is unbeatable at home within the Primera Division. They won all their 7 home games and have a goal difference of +13. I don't see Depor breaking this streak. Depor did not win any of its away games.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 2.36€ -> Lost

For once a combo without explanation due to a lack of time.
RBC Roosendaal - FC Den Bosch @ 1.55 (Won)
Anderlecht - Zulte Waregem @ 1.28 (Won)
Tottenham - Southend @ 1.22 (Lost)
This combo has a possible pay-out of 2.42€ -> Lost

Good Luck,
European Sports Betting

Weekend 17&18 December

Finally I can announce that my previous blog post was for 100% correct.

Here we go again! As usual I will start of with my bets and my 3 combinations are placed at the bottom of the post.

Jupiler league
Anderlecht(2) - Mons/Bergen(14) (Won)
Anderlecht is almost unbeatable at home within the Jupiler League, their only loss was against leader Genk. The away record from Bergen is not so impressive: 1 win, 2 draws and 5 losses. My money is on Anderlecht.
Cercle Brugge(17) - Club Brugge(3) (Lost)
Since Cercle has been promoted back to the Jupiler League they were not capable of winning against big brother Club. I don't think that this will change this Sunday. Normally Brugge is weaker away from home but they both play in the same stadion. Also a lot of players of Cercle are or injurid or suspended. Club Brugge is the one to bet on.

Mainz 05(18) - Bayern Munich(4) (Won)
Bayern cannot affort another misstep in the pursuit of the leaders of the Bundesliga. This should not be a problem against Mainz, who only won once at home this season. Also pretty nice odds for a win of Bayern.
Werder Bremen(1) - Wolfsburg(12) (Won)
Realatively high odds for the leader of the Bundesliga, certainly if you know that they are playing at home against Wolfsburg. A team who wants to win the Bundesliga cannot afford to loose points at home and I'm 90% sure that Bremen will send Wolfsburg back home without any point.

Premier League
Charlton Athletic(19) - Liverpool(5) (Won)
While Liverpool has a lousy away record this season, I see them winning this weekend in Charlton. After a difficult start of the season Liverpool is playing better football. 11 from the 12 points which Charlton has are earned at home but this weekend they will not increase their home stats.
Newcastle(14) - Watford(20) (Won)
An excellent chance for Newcastle to get closer to the places which are worth an UEFA cup ticket at the end of the season. I see them winning solid this weekend against Watford.
West Ham United(18) - Manchester United(1) (Lost)
Before I saw that West Ham had presented their new head coach I was very confident in a victory of Manchester United. But you may never underestimate the effect within the first game under a new manager. Each player is willing to fight again for there place within the team. But still it should not be enough to beat Manchester. Manchester is my tip for this game.

Inter(1) - Messina(15) (Won)
Impressive head-2-head stats for Inter against Messina. Inter won 6 of its 7 games at home this season and the other one was a draw. Messina was not capable yet of scoring a win away from home. A win for Inter is expected.

Primera Divsion
Espanyol(11) - Real Madrid(3) (Won)
This is according to me the one with the highest risk! Still I believe in a victory of Real, cannot explain why. Probably cause they have to, if they want to get closer to Barcelona who are not playing this week in the Primera Division.

My Combos:
Combo1: Anderlecht, Bayern and Newcastle -> 2.83€ -> Won
Combo2: Liverpool, Inter, Club Brugge -> Lost
Combo3: Werder Bremen, Manchester United, Real Madrid -> Lost

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Matchday 5 Uefa Cup

The last matchday of this year's UEFA cup group rounds. Some teams already know if they can prolong their UEFA cup season and some already know that they are eliminated. Others are still struggling to survive.

My 2 combinations:
Espanyol - Austria Magna Wien (Won)
Espaynol is already qualified for the next round and even sure of the first place within the group. So probably they will not play with all its star players but even with the substitutes they should able to win against Wien. Wien failed to collect one single point within this group, which is a surprise with Zulte Waregem also playing in this group. No, this proves that Wien is not good enough for this European campaign.

Feyenoord - Wisla Krakow (Won)
The number 4 receives the number 3. Within this group 2 qualifiers are already known, namely Nancy and Blackburn. Feyenoord and Wisla are fighting for the next ticket. I favor Feyenoord cause they have the home advantage and are focused on a good result after the out game in Nancy.

Paris S.G. - Panathinaikos (Won)
The number last from group G hosts against the first of the group. This is a big advantage for PSG cause the Greeks are already qualified for the next round (almost sure of staying number 1 within this group). PSG will be very motivated cause a victory against Panathinaikos means qualification. History learns that teams which are already qualified almost never win. My money is on PSG.

This combo has a possible pay-out of 2.89€. Won

Glasgow Rangers - Partizan Belgrado (Won)
Glasgow is already qualified and Belgrado is already eliminated. But in Glasgow nothing less than a victory is expected. The home crowd always expects that the team wins at home regardless of the opponent and situation. Belgrado also only collected one point within this group and I don't believe that they will add more points to this.

S.C. Braga - Grasshoppers (Won)
Braga qualifies if they win and Grasshoppers only plays cause they have to. While a few posts ago I wrote that the Swiss football is always underestimated and I still believe that statement but I don't think that the Grasshoppers will score against Braga. Braga will score at least once so the outcome is in my eyes predictable: a victory for Braga.

Tottenham - Dinamo bucuresti (Won)
Both teams are qualified and will be fighting for the first place of the group. May not seem iimportant but there is. The winner of the group will play against a number three of another poule while the number 2 will face a number 3 from the Champions League. Tottenham will win this backed up by their wonderful crowd.

This combo has a potential pay-out of 2.97€. Won

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Recap of the weekend

4 out of 6 correct, it has been worse. To bad that both my errors were in different combinations. While my percentage for December is good if I leave out the CL bets. But It always could get worse.

Most of 90% of the people who gamble on sport base their bets on instinct. While this can be good in some occasions it can be a real nightmare. If you don't know yet what to order from Santa Claus I can advise the book belong. It describes how bookies work and how you should interpret their odds.

Weekend 8-10 december 2006

Only 2 combos for this weekend. I found it extreme hard to find the games where if I enough confidence in the outcome.

Jupiler league
Westerlo(7) - Cercle Brugge(16) (LOST)
No doubt about it. Westerlo will win this home game. The 5 last away games were lost by Cercle and they will continue this streak. Also they were not able to score a single goal in these last 5 away games. Only tops teams have a change on winning in Westerlo and Cercle isn't one.

Bor. Mönchengladbach (16) - Mainz 05(18) (LOST)
Borussia lost 3 home games in a row after they won 3 home games in a row at home. Mainz only scored 2 draws away from home. My money is on Borussia because of the home advantage.

Premier League
Tottenham (10) - Charlton (19) (WON)
It is time for Tottenham to work on these head-to-head statistics. Now is the chance. Charlton is fighting for survival within the premier league and is not playing well away from home. Tottenham on the other hand is almost unbeatable.
Bolton Wanderers (9) - West Ham United (WON)
While Bolton hasn't exactly an home reputation this season the out reputation of West Ham is even worse. No points, only one goal scored and 9 conceded. For this game we will follow the ranking and believe in a victory of Bolton.

Ligue 1
Lyonnais(1) - PSG(14) (WON)
Lyonnais disappointed me in the CL but I doubt it that they will let me down in the home game against PSG. In the ligue 1 the last 4 home games they didn't loose and will continue this streak this Sunday. The problem of PSG is that they have difficulties with scoring away from home, only 4 goals in the last 6 away games. And they will need to score at least twice to win or draw in Lyon and that will not happen.

Feyenoord(5) - Ado Den Haag(18) (WON)
Last season ADO won with 0-2 in Den Haag. Ado surprised last weekend with 2-5 in Groningen but they will not do this stunt again in Rotterdam. It is 4 games ago that Feyenoord lost a home game. Feyenoord will win this. If you don't want to play this, a pretty safe bet is over. In 13 of the 15 games which Feyenoord played this season, over was a good bet.

I play the following combos.
Combo1: Westerlo , Feyenoord & Lyonnais -> LOST
Combo2: Bolton, Bor. Mönchengladbach & Tottenham -> LOST

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Last matchday Champions League: the sequal

Champions League Still nagging about the late goal Inter made. Incredible.

The combos for today.

First let's starts with the special.
Dynamo Kiev - Real Madrid (2.65, 3.25, 2.40)
Dynamo lost both other home games and have a goal difference from -11. Real is already qualified for the next round but I doubt it that they will loose a point in Kiev. I consider even the B-team of Real better than Kiev.
Lyonnais - Steaua (1.30, 4.50, 9.00)
While Lyonnais is already qualified on probably will not play with all its star player I don't believe that they will give the game away. For a player close to the first team it is honour to play Champions League and they want to show their qualities to the European forum. Steaua is already qualified for the next Uefa Cup round.
This combination has a possible pay-out of 3.12€. If you want to play this combo just mark the correct boxes in the Bwin banner above, insert the correct betting amount and collect your winnings.

For combo 2 I only took matches from group H. In this group only AC milan is sure that they are qualified for the next CL round. Lille and AEK still have a chance to qualify as second, while Anderlecht can only hope on the Uefa cup. For this last scenario Lille has to loose in Milan and Anderlecht has to win against AEK. I'm confident that this last thing will happen. AEK won their last 8 games within the Greek competition but have never won away in the Champions League. The last home victory of Anderlecht is more than 3 years ago but this will chance today. Probably they will play with Tchite and Frutos as striker, which is an excellent combination.
Milan does not want to loose at home but I doubt it that they will try to win this game. So to be sure the have to correct bet I will go for Milan double chance.
RSC Anderlecht - AEK (2.40, 3.45, 2.75)
AC Milan - Lille (1X -> 1.38)
This combo has a possible pay-out of 3.31€.

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Final Matchday Champions League

Today the final matchday of the Champions League. While some teams are already qualified other still have a small change but a victory is mandatory.

First lets start with the special.
Barcelona - Werder Bremen (1.40, 4.00, 7.15)
Werder will qualify with a draw of a victory. But winning against Barcelona is not so easy, certainly not if Barca needs to win to qualify themselves. My money is on Barca.

Bayern Munich - Inter Milan (2.10, 3.20, 3.20)
Both teams are already qualified for the next round, so it is only a matter of prestige. In such games it is more important for the home team to not loose. So I predict a draw or a small victory for Bayern. Cause I don't believe in betting on draws my money is on Bayern.

This combination pays-out 2.94€. If you want to play this bet. Simply check to correct boxes above, in the Bwin banner and place your bet.

Roma - Valencia (1.50, 3.35, 9.00)
I like to bet 0n Valencia but for once I will place a bet against them. Valencia is already qualified but Roma still needs a least one point. Roma is currently second in the Seri A, while Valencia is struggling within the Primera Division. I favor Roma.
Sporting - Spartak Moskva (1.57, 3.65, 6.25)
Both teams are already eliminated from the CL and it is almost sure that Sporting will play in the Uefa cup after the winter break. Still it is a hard game to predict. But because Spartak lost all their away games, I favor Sporting.

This combination pays-out 2.36€.

Only 2 combinations of 2 games this matchday. This to minimize the risk. If you want to add another game to this last combo, I can advise PSV in double chance.

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Weekend 1-3/12/2006

The last month of the year.

3 games for this Friday special. I consider this combination pretty save but I cannot blame you if your trust in my predictions has decreased.
Beveren(14) - Anderlecht(2) (6.00, 3.40, 1.60) (2/2/7)
It is more than 4 years ago that Anderlecht lost in Beveren. If Anderlecht wins it will put all the pressure on KRC Genk. After a scoreless draw in Standard and a 2-1 defeat within Gent, it is time for Anderlecht to start colleting points away from home again. Beveren will be the sitting duck this evening.
Mainz o5(18) - Vfb Stuttgart (3) (3.65, 3.30, 2.00) (0/0/2)
Mainz does not have enough quality for the Bundesliga. The team of Stuttgart seems well balanced. After Werder Bremen Stuttgart has the second best offense of the league (27 goals). The defense of Mainz is one of the lesser ones of the league (25 goals against).

This combination pays-out: 3.20€. I consider this easy money.

My other bets for this weekend. Because I will try to pick "easier" games with lower odds, my combos will consist of more games. Let's see if this tactic works.

Jupiler league
Cercle Brugge(15) - GBA(8) (2.35, 3.25, 2.85) (3/0/0)
Playing at Cercle is never fun. A giant stadium (shared with Club Brugge) with only 5 to 7 thousiand supporters. Both teams are not in their best form. GBA scored 6 points out of the last 6 games, while Cercle only gained 4 points. Cercle only lost 2 times at home this season, but after this weekend the counters will stand on 3. GBA always tries to play dominant football and they have the players to do this. They will win and Cavens will score his first goal of the season.
Lierse(18) - Club Brugge(3) (8.50, 4.40, 1.35) (2/5/5)
Clubg is out on revenge after again a missed chance in the Uefa Cup. Maybe they are not good enough for Europe but definitly strong enough for the Jupiler League. Last weekend was the first game for Rekdal as head coach from Lierse. While there seemed to be more swung in the team, they didn't manage to avoid a defeat. Normally Brugge may not have any problem at all in Lier.

Bochum(16) - Hamburger SV(17) (2.80, 3.30, 2.40) (2/4/2)
Hamburg again lost a player last week with a long term injury. And again it is a defender. I don't know how Doll arranges his trainings but there has to be something wrong. 80% of all injuries are muscle related. Still I think that they will have a good chance of winning in Bochum. The play of Hamburger SV is improving and the last two games they were capable of scoring again, which is a prerequisite for winning.

AZ(2) - Excelsior Rotterdam(10) (1.13, 6.50, 15.50) (1/0/0)
AZ is playing together with PSV the most beautiful football, which can be found in the Netherlands. Exclesior away is a drama, only one point. No, in my eyes they don't have any change in Alkmaar.
Ajax(3) - Willem II(15) (1.15, 6.00, 15.00) (12/1/0)
Ajax normally wins big at home against Willem II. But Ajax is trying to climb out of the form crisis where they are in now. From the last 5 games, they only were capable of one draw, all the other ones were lost. So, the home game against Willem II could not come at a better moment. This can be the morale booster which Ajax really needs.

Inter(1) - AC Siena(9) (1.23, 5.10, 16.00) (2/1/0)
Inter has this season an impressive home record. No game lost scored 14 times and only conceded 6 goals. Due to the affairs within the Italian Football there are relieved from the pressure from AC Milan and Juventus. Siena only scored 5 times away from home. I predict that Inter will score at least twice which will surely be enough for the victory.

Primera Divsion
Villareal(9) - Gimnastic(20) (1.45, 3.85, 8.00) (-/-/-)
Gimnastic clearly does not have enough potential to stay within the Primera Division. A goal difference of -15 and only 5 points from 12 games. Away they only scored 3 goals, but that was enough to return once with a victory. But this will not happen again this weekend. Villareal is not known for his home reputation, but winning this weekend should not be a problem.

This week I picked no games within the premier league. I don't have any confidence that I will predict a good one.

My combos:
Combo1: Inter, Ajax, Club Brugge -> Possible pay-out: 1.91€
Combo2: Villareal, AZ, Hamburger SV, GBA -> possible pay-out: 11.21€ (wouldn't this be nice)

Good luck,
European Sports Betting

Statistics December 2006

Jupiler League6
Premier League10
Ligue 14

Serie A6
Primera Division4





Single advise
Single bets

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