Thursday, July 30, 2009

And of we go!

I have been waiting on it for weeks but finally the Belgian Jupiler League and the Eredivisie starts. So time for the first bets of the season. This weekend I will be betting the Belgian Jupiler League special, a twin, a triple and one quadruple.
So the total investment for this weekend will be 4 euros. No Supertoto XL this weekend, so no supertoto for me! Like always, all slips are 1 euro bets.

The Belgian Jupiler Special (aka BJS)
The BJS will contain 3 games this weekend. The first game kicks off on Friday when champion Standard Liege will face the newcomer STVV. I don't expect any problems for Standard, which kept almost their complete team intact.
The next game is Roeselare - GBA. I expect a good start of GBA. Last year they missed their start completely but with some good winter transfer to easily kept away from relegation danger. I predict a difficult season for Roeselare. My prediction Roeselare will start the new season with 0 points. I expect at least a 2 goal different victory for GBA, with at least one goal for Macdonald.
Last game in this slip is KRC Genk - Mouscron. While Genk always has up and downs, they showed potential in the super cup and shouldn't have any problem with Mouscron.
Standard Liege, Germinal Beerschot and KRC Genk -> 3.99

The twins
In the twin slip, one safe bet and one with a little more risk but one where I believe in. The safe bet is a home win of Feyenoord. The legion is expecting a much better season than last season. The risky part is the predicted win of Zulte Waregem on Lokeren. Zulte did not loose in the pre season games, score 28 goals and only conceived 8. Lokeren will start building a new team, while the first team of Zulte remained almost intact.
Feyenoord and Zulte Waregem -> 4.71

The Tripled
3 Dutch games in this slip. I do expect an easy home win for PSV an easy victory for AZ on Heracles and a little more risky victory for Ajax on Groningen. All very possible and put them together and youhave really nice odds.
PSV, AZ and Ajax -> 3.40

The Quadruple
More or less a safe quadruple. 2 games from Belgium where I expect the 2 big favorites for the title will win their first game of the season easily.
The 2 other games or from the Dutch eredivisie. Where Heereveen should have no problem with Roda at home. Roda did loose quality during the transfer season and without fresh blood they will face a hard and long season. FC Twente should take the victory at Sparta. Twente easily should end in the top 3 and to achieve this, there is no other option than taking the 3 points in Sparta.
Standard Liege, Anderlecht, FC Twente and Heereveen -> 3.92

Check back on Monday or Tuesday, the check the results.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Betting plan 2009-2010

The football season is knocking on the door. So it is time to set up my betting strategy for this season.
Last season I doubled my BR and so that’s my goal for next season.

All my best will be placed at Unitbet, my preferred bookie.

First my general rules:
• I will only play combos and the supertoto.
• All my bets will be 1€ bets.
• The maximum ticket price for the supertoto will be 1.60€.
• I will stay of the season bets for the moment. Maybe during the winter break when I have a better funded BR I will place some.
• The starting BR for this season will be 50€.
• Only 1 fun combo per week!
• The maximum ante per week will be 6.60€.
• My season starts at the 31st of July and end after the World cup 2010. (If my BR allows it)

My betting plan:
There will 3 types of bets I will be playing. The combo (mostly on football) betting, the football supertoto and the fun combo.
Sometimes I will sidestep to different sports like Tennis or the F1. But 90% off all bets will be football related.

The fun combo:
Once a week I will be playing a fun combo. This is a betting slip with 12 bets (the maximum @ Unibet) combined. The bets will be covering all kinds of sports. I’m hoping that I can combine 2 or 3 successful fun combos. Which if I succeed will be enough to assure a profitable season.

The Weekend bets:
During a regular football weekend I will play the following combos:
The Belgian Jupiler League special, which will cover 2 to 3 games of the Jupiler League. This is the competition of my country, so I expect a lot of these bets.

The multi country special: This betting slip will contain 1 game of each of the big European football competitions (Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Ligue 1, La primera division) completed with games for the Dutch Eredivisie and the Belgium Jupiler League.

The twins: It is what it says it is. A combo of 2 games from the 7 competitions above. In general this will be a more risky ticket, with a pay-out of around 2€.

The triplet: Same as the double but this time with 3 games.

The quadruple: This slip will contain 4 games. In contrast to the double I will play more rather safe games here. The question is what you consider a rather safe. This will be most of the time home games of the big favourites of 1 of the 7 competitions.

The supertoto XL or XXL: 14 games in this ticket. The biggest advantage is that a ticket costs only 0.10€. The pot is divided among the players who have 11 to 14 correct predictions on their ticket. The matches on the ticket are most likely games from the Premier League, Serie A and La Primera Division. The matches are played on Saturday and Sunday. I will play one ticket of 1.60€, meaning that I can tick 5 boxes extra.

The midweek bets:
If it is a regular midweek with no European games. It will be the same as the weekend bets.
If it is a midweek full of European matches. I will place the following bets:
The septet: Will only be played in the beginning of the season when there are enough European matches to choose from.
The triplet: 2 per midweek with 3 European matches.

The stats:
Of course I will record my statistics, so you can see how safe a type of bet can be followed (or not!).

I will keep the following stats:
* The general BR flow per month
* Per betting type
* The number of bets played
* The number of winning tickets
* Money invested
* Money won
* Profit Made

Good luck,
Dremeber

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Jupiler League Preview 2009

2 weeks to go and the new football season begins in Belgium. And it will be a real fresh start. The competition has been revised to increase top games, generate more income from the TV rights and decrease the number of teams within the top league.

From this season on there will be only 16 teams in the Belgium Jupiler League. The season is also split in two parts. In part 1 all teams play in a regular home and away format against each other. At the end of this part. The competition is played further in 3 play-off leagues. The top 6 will play the champion play-offs. All teams will take 50% of their earned points to this. The winner of this play-off is the Champion of Belgium. The second will play the qualification for the CL, the third will get rewarded with a ticker for the EL. Number 4 will play an elimination match against the winner of the other 2 play-off leagues for the remaining EL tickets.

The numbers 7 to 14 are divided into 2 separate play-off leagues. No points are taken from the regular competition. Both winners of the league will play each other and the winner will face number 4 of the champions play-offs for the remaining EL tickets.

Number 15 will play a promotion/relegation play-off with the number 2, 3 and 4 of the Exqui league.
Number 16 will relegate to the second division.

So that's the format. Now let's have a look at the major transfers.
Well to be honest there aren't any. Although it is quiet a surprise that Champion Standard Liege (at the moment) only lost 1 key player. (Onyewu to Ac Milan) But the transfer window is still open until the end of August so a lot can happen.
No big names are moving in Anderlecht. Club Brugge did buy Donk, but if that is the biggest transfer in Belgium the crisis is really hitting the competition hard.
These 4 teams will probably reach the champion play-offs.

For the other 2 places it will be a fight between Genk, GBA, Westerlo and Zulte Waregem.


The 2 candidates for the title are of course Standard Liege and Anderlecht. Both teams are more or less unchanged. I favor Anderlecht a little bit more. Standard will loose some points in the beginning due to the CL.
The outsiders are Gent and Club Brugge. The question is how Gent can replace Ruiz, who has been sold (on request) to FC Twente. Club Brugge has to make up for a lost year but I don't believe they will with an almost unchanged team.

At the bottom it is really hard to favor a team for relegation. STVV, the second division champions, have a real small squad. Mouscron still has financial problems and Roeselare lost MacDonald to GBA.

I'm still waiting if Unibet will offer bets on which team will play which play-off.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, July 17, 2009

Quick TDF update

Due to a holiday I didn't had much time to bet, let online update my blog.

Nothing shocking has happened. I added 2 euros on Martinez to take the Polka dot jersey.
And for today I'm hoping that one of the following riders will win today:
S. Casar @ 25
Kreuziger @ 35
S. Chavanel @ 17

Or that one of the riders below will finish in the top 3.
V. Nibali @ 9
A. Schleck @ 6
A. Contador @ 7.50

A more decent post when I'm back. Having to much fun with my son and wife to spend some time blogging.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Cav will not win tomorrow! Roddick will take a set!

Shit happens. I was to focused on registering for two fantasy games I'm participating in.
So what did happen today? Well Cancellara did what everybody was expecting from him. He won the first TT of the TDF 2009 with supremacy.

Serena won wimbledon. Not a surprise for me but this is easy said knowing the score. I was planning to place a bet on her but shopping had a higher priority.

My favorite Italian restaurant is for sale. Bummer!!!

Let's take a look at tomorrow bets.
Wimbledon
Well that's an easy one. Federer will win but not as easy as everybody is expecting. Unibet is offering odds of 1,12 for a win for Federer and 6.40 for a Roddick surprise.
I think that more value can be obtained in set betting. I expect that Roddick with his powerful serve will take at least one set. The odds on a victory for Federer with 3-1 or 3-2 are much more appealing that just betting on the victory.
I have placed a bet on both 3-1 (3.40) and 3-2 (8.50), so if Roddick does what I expect from him then I'm making a profit.

Tour de France
Everybody is expecting a first bunch sprint and a victory for Cavendish. But I'm not so sure. The course contains 4 climbs of 4th category and a small steep hill at 10km for the finish. I expect a crazy start with cause some riders do want to take that Yellow Jersey, this will cost Cav some power. Remember he is the lesser climber of the sprinters. Also the steep hill at 10km for the finish is an excellent opportunity for a new break away (if the bunch is intact at the moment). So I'm not betting on Cav the odds are in my eyes just not good enough.

Tomorrow we will know more.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

TDF preview part 3: The king of the mountains.

Well I guess you expected the chicken with the golden eggs. Finally somebody who knew who the real contenders were for this competition.

Well I have to let you down. I really have no clue. In the old days it was easy you could safely bet on Virenque. Another safe bet was that the king of the mountain would be caught within 1 or 2 year on doping (Rasmussen, Kohl, Virenque, etc…).

If I look at the odds of most bookmakers, Moncoutie is the only favorite followed by a bunch of climbers. With odds of 3.75 it isn’t such a crazy bet. Don’t forget that he came second in the king of the mountains competition during the Dauphine.

But bookmakers also say the Contador will take the Polka dot jersey home. I personally don’t believe this. GC contenders normally only attack at the last mountain of the stage and most of the time only if the stage ends on top of the mountain. This year there are 3 such stages.

Of course there are always the outsiders like A. Schleck, Sastre, Gesink, Martin (both T and D.) and so on.
But this competition is too unpredictable to go into depth with a preview.


During the search for valuable content I did discover that luckily my Bookmaker is offering the best odds on the net. For sure if you for instance believe that Evans will win. Unibet odds on Evans are sometimes 50% higher than other bookies. So, remember that is not only important who to bet on, but also where to bet!!


Good luck,
Dremeber