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Showing posts from 2009

Here we go again

I'm glad that I did stay of the Friendly games. For sure I would have selected Belgium to win in Estonia but we all know the result of that game. I will be hard for us to qualify ourselves for another big tourney.

The 6 selected games for this weekend are:
1ArsenalBirmingham12KVKRoeselare13LyonSochaux14Man UBolton15NECADO16AnderlechtCharlerloi1
All home wins as you can see. The matches which will probably break or make this bet are NEC - ADO and Kortijk - Roeselare. I did pick these to lift the possible pay-out to an acceptable level.
While ADO isn't bad, they don't have an away reputation. NEC should be capable of winning this game 8 out of 10 times.
Kortrijk has a lot more quality than Roeselare and to this to more than decent defense and we have a winner.

Good luck,
Dremeber

So, it was a safe bet

Well 6 games correct, good for a profit of 7.30 euros.
Also glad that I did stay of the supertoto, I doubt it if I would have predicted 12 out of 14 correct.

Still not sure if I will play on the World Cup qualification games of Wednesday. In a lot of groups everything is already decided, which makes a lot of games of Wednesday pure friendly games and these are always dangerous.

In stead I will prepare my weekend bets. If you are playing to bet on Wednesday, the following odds are looking very appealing.

Italy - cyprus: 1 for 1.22
Estland - Belgium: 2 for 1.75

Cheers,
Dremeber

A safe bet for this weekend?

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To be honnest, a safe bet is a fantasy. But my bet for this weekend has such a low pay-out that it almost can have the stamp "safe bet" on it.

I will stay off the supertoto for this weekend, to many risky games involved. Last weekend I finally made a profit. 12 out of 14 games correct and this on a combined ticket good for a pay-out a little bit above 10 euros.

But back to the betting plan for this weekend. All qualification matches for the World Cup. Tip of the week: stay of the friendly matches!!!

I did an attempt to pick the most safe matches, at least safe in my eyes.
ArmenieSpanje2IsraelMoldavie1KameroenTogo1NigeriaMozambique1PortugalHongarije1ServieRoemenie1
If all of these macthes follow my prediction, I can pick up a pay-out of 13,3 euros.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Here comes the weekend (betting round 4)

And it started badly. 2 out of my 6 selected games were Friday evening matches. While Vitesse won against Sparta, AA Gent couldn't keep the 3 points at home against Mouscron and that last one was a surprise to me.

The other 4 games are:
- GBA - Westerlo: 1
- Heracles - FC Twente: 2
- Inter - Udinese: 1
- Marseille - Monaco: 1

As you can see, a lot of risky bets for this weekend. With these I was hoping to make up the loss in the EL. But with 1 incorrect prediction already it will be though to make a profit, which is still possible. We will see.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Profit made on the CL, up to the EL

The system worked. Yeah!!! 5 out of 6 correct, good for a profit of 1.87 euros. Probably I'm not the only one who did not predict the loss of AC Milan at home against Zurich.

So we are now 2 betting rounds far. On the positive side we had a pay-out of 8.53 euros, on the negative side the ante was 12 euros. It should have been better, but the first betting round was a real downer with only 3 out of 6 games correct.

Tomorrow there is a match day in the euro league. I have picked the following matches:
- FC Twente - Bucaresti: 1
- Galatasaray - Strum Graz: 1
- Hamburg - Hapoel Tel Aviv: 1
- PSV - Cluj: 1
- Roma - CSKA Sofia: 1
- Shaktar D. - Partizan Belgrado: 1

Good luck,
Dremeber

Champions League here we come

Last weekend wasn't an excellent start of my new betting plan to be honest. Only 3 games out of 6 correct. Nothing to brag about. Good, not actually a good word, for a pay-out of 0.66 euros.

So lets start with betting round number 2. I have picked the following 6 games from the champions league games:
1. AC Milan - FC Zurich: 1
2. Arsenal - Olumpiakos: 1
3. Bordeaux - Maccabie Haifa: 1
4. DVCS Debrecen - Lyon: 2
5. Glasgow Rangers - Sevilla: 2
6. Manchester United - VFL Wolfsburg: 1

If all 6 are correct, it means a pay-out of 20,26 euros.

Good luck,
Dremeber

A new betting plan. What do you think about it?

Cause my previous betting plan did take to much time in preparation and wasn't quit as successful as I hoped it was.
So it is time for a new betting plan. I tried it last weekend and it made me a profit of 20 euros.

So here it is:
In stead of creating multiple combos, I only create 1 betting slip. On this slip I will play multiple combination all with an ante of 0.10 euros.
An example: This midweek I selected 6 games and filled in the betting slip as followed:
- 15 doubles @ 0.10 euro per double
- 20 trebles @ 0.10 euro per treble
- 15 fourfolds @ 0.10 euro per foudfold
- 6 fivefolds @ 0.15 euro per fivefold
- 1 sixfold @ 1 euro
So the total ante was 6.90 euro. Cause all the six games were correct the pay-out was 27.45 euro.

The big advantage with playing this betting plan is that it is possible to make a profit without having each 6 games correct. Depending on the odds it is possible to make a profit from 4 games and above of course.
Another advantage is that even with only 3 games correct y…

No weekend bets? Only a supertoto

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Hi all,

Silly me. I lost my sheet with the selected bets for this weekend and cause I do have the feeling that creating new ones is a bad idea I decided to only play the Supertoto.

In stead of going for a 1.60 euro ticket I doubled my ante, so it became a 3.20 ticket. Droping my bankroll just above 50 euros. So if it is a loosing ticket I did spend my complete deposit bonus.
So here is my Supertoto ticket for this week.


I guess that no explanation for this ticker is needed.

Good luck all with the bets this weekend.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Weekend bets

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Sorry for the late posting but had to play myself this evening and earlier in the week I was to buys with work.

The Twin:Cause I prefer to pick some risky matches for my Twin slip, the pay-out is pretty nice for a ticket with only 2 games. I also do believe that Roda should be capable of winning their first home game of the season. The draw last weekend @ Heereveen for sure will had a morale booster effect.
Lyon on the other side is determined to regain the title. Last season they surprisingly finished in spot 3. Le Mans on the other hand finished just above the relegation places. The odds are so high cause the bookies don't know yet what the real strength of the teams are at the moment.

The triplet:I expect a lot from VVV, for sure after their 3-3 draw at PSV. They really deserved it. I don't see them loosing their first home game of the season in the Eredivisie after a year of absense.
NAC Breda may not have any problem at home against Heracles. I do find the odds strangly high,…

Oeps

What a bad start of the season. I ran into almost all surprises, bugger.

I could live with the fact that Standard Liege did not win against standard, missing 2 penalties in the 90th minute. But I was really surprised by the ass kicking Genk and AZ received.

Luckily, unibet always had bonus offer at the start of the season. This time it was a 20% reload bonus. So I did deposit my planned 50 euros, to see 60 euros added to my BR.

So up to the midweek European matches.

I also added a link to my stats page. For once I tried to do it with google docs. You can find the link in the first sidebar at the right.

Cheers,
Dremeber

And of we go!

I have been waiting on it for weeks but finally the Belgian Jupiler League and the Eredivisie starts. So time for the first bets of the season. This weekend I will be betting the Belgian Jupiler League special, a twin, a triple and one quadruple.
So the total investment for this weekend will be 4 euros. No Supertoto XL this weekend, so no supertoto for me! Like always, all slips are 1 euro bets.

The Belgian Jupiler Special (aka BJS)
The BJS will contain 3 games this weekend. The first game kicks off on Friday when champion Standard Liege will face the newcomer STVV. I don't expect any problems for Standard, which kept almost their complete team intact.
The next game is Roeselare - GBA. I expect a good start of GBA. Last year they missed their start completely but with some good winter transfer to easily kept away from relegation danger. I predict a difficult season for Roeselare. My prediction Roeselare will start the new season with 0 points. I expect at least a 2 goal different vict…

Betting plan 2009-2010

The football season is knocking on the door. So it is time to set up my betting strategy for this season.
Last season I doubled my BR and so that’s my goal for next season.

All my best will be placed at Unitbet, my preferred bookie.

First my general rules:
• I will only play combos and the supertoto.
• All my bets will be 1€ bets.
• The maximum ticket price for the supertoto will be 1.60€.
• I will stay of the season bets for the moment. Maybe during the winter break when I have a better funded BR I will place some.
• The starting BR for this season will be 50€.
• Only 1 fun combo per week!
• The maximum ante per week will be 6.60€.
• My season starts at the 31st of July and end after the World cup 2010. (If my BR allows it)

My betting plan:
There will 3 types of bets I will be playing. The combo (mostly on football) betting, the football supertoto and the fun combo.
Sometimes I will sidestep to different sports like Tennis or the F1. But 90% off all bets will be football related.

The fun combo:
Once…

Jupiler League Preview 2009

2 weeks to go and the new football season begins in Belgium. And it will be a real fresh start. The competition has been revised to increase top games, generate more income from the TV rights and decrease the number of teams within the top league.

From this season on there will be only 16 teams in the Belgium Jupiler League. The season is also split in two parts. In part 1 all teams play in a regular home and away format against each other. At the end of this part. The competition is played further in 3 play-off leagues. The top 6 will play the champion play-offs. All teams will take 50% of their earned points to this. The winner of this play-off is the Champion of Belgium. The second will play the qualification for the CL, the third will get rewarded with a ticker for the EL. Number 4 will play an elimination match against the winner of the other 2 play-off leagues for the remaining EL tickets.

The numbers 7 to 14 are divided into 2 separate play-off leagues. No points are taken from t…

Quick TDF update

Due to a holiday I didn't had much time to bet, let online update my blog.

Nothing shocking has happened. I added 2 euros on Martinez to take the Polka dot jersey.
And for today I'm hoping that one of the following riders will win today:
S. Casar @ 25
Kreuziger @ 35
S. Chavanel @ 17

Or that one of the riders below will finish in the top 3.
V. Nibali @ 9
A. Schleck @ 6
A. Contador @ 7.50

A more decent post when I'm back. Having to much fun with my son and wife to spend some time blogging.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Cav will not win tomorrow! Roddick will take a set!

Shit happens. I was to focused on registering for two fantasy games I'm participating in.
So what did happen today? Well Cancellara did what everybody was expecting from him. He won the first TT of the TDF 2009 with supremacy.

Serena won wimbledon. Not a surprise for me but this is easy said knowing the score. I was planning to place a bet on her but shopping had a higher priority.

My favorite Italian restaurant is for sale. Bummer!!!

Let's take a look at tomorrow bets.
Wimbledon
Well that's an easy one. Federer will win but not as easy as everybody is expecting. Unibet is offering odds of 1,12 for a win for Federer and 6.40 for a Roddick surprise.
I think that more value can be obtained in set betting. I expect that Roddick with his powerful serve will take at least one set. The odds on a victory for Federer with 3-1 or 3-2 are much more appealing that just betting on the victory.
I have placed a bet on both 3-1 (3.40) and 3-2 (8.50), so if Roddick does what I expect from him the…

TDF preview part 3: The king of the mountains.

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Well I guess you expected the chicken with the golden eggs. Finally somebody who knew who the real contenders were for this competition.

Well I have to let you down. I really have no clue. In the old days it was easy you could safely bet on Virenque. Another safe bet was that the king of the mountain would be caught within 1 or 2 year on doping (Rasmussen, Kohl, Virenque, etc…).

If I look at the odds of most bookmakers, Moncoutie is the only favorite followed by a bunch of climbers. With odds of 3.75 it isn’t such a crazy bet. Don’t forget that he came second in the king of the mountains competition during the Dauphine.

But bookmakers also say the Contador will take the Polka dot jersey home. I personally don’t believe this. GC contenders normally only attack at the last mountain of the stage and most of the time only if the stage ends on top of the mountain. This year there are 3 such stages.

Of course there are always the outsiders like A. Schleck, Sastre, Gesink, Martin (both T and D.)…

TDF part 2: The green jersey!

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Part 2 of the TDF preview. Today we will be looking at the potential winners of the green jersey.
First let’s take a look at the odds for the main players. This time in stead of 5, 7 contenders. At the moment it is still not sure if Tom Boonen is allowed to participate, Tuesday we will now more.


Look always, the odds come from Unibet.
Cavendish (Team Columbia) – 2.00
Freire (Rabobank) – 4.50
Bennati (Liquigas) – 6.00
Boonen (Quickstep) – 7.00
Hushovd (Cervelo) – 8.00
Haussler (Cervelo) – 22.00
Napolitano (Katuska)– 25.00

Cavendish:
At the moment probably the fastest sprinter based on pure speed and power. He also has learned to hang in there on small climbs. The best prove of this is his victory in Milan San Remo.
But he has never finished in Paris in the past 2 tours. Also, he is probably the lesser climber of all sprinters which can be dangerous.
On the positive side the course fits him like a glove with probably 5 or 6 bunch sprints. Don’t be surprised if he takes down at least 4 of them. (15 v…

Who will win the Tour de France 2009?

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In the next week we will prepare ourselves for the Tour de France.
In this part we will focus on the potential winners and their odds. I will also try to explain why a rider can win it or why not.

The biggest problem is the length of the tour de France. It lasts 3 weeks in which a lot can happen (sickness, falls, etc…). Also we may not underestimate the doping ghost!

In all my posts I’m using the odds of Unibet.

First let’s take a look at the top5.
Contador (Astana) – 1,85
Armstrong (Astana) – 4,50
Schleck A. (Saxo) – 9,00
Evans (Silence – Lotto) – 13,00
Menchov (Rabobank) – 16,00

Contador
Why will he win?
At the moment he is maybe the talented rider of the pack. Winning 2 years ago. Last year due to the team doping policy his team was not allowed to participate at the Tour.
He is riding for the best team and probably he of one of his teammates will take yellow after the team time trial. If so it will be though to get him out of the yellow.
Another reason why he will win is that the combined total …

Hibernation?

Well this blog goes into hibernation once more. Why?
Well it is simple, at the moment I'm not placing any bets anymore. Had a bad streak and decided to sit it out without continuing to loose money. So I did withdraw all my money from my online bookie. I was probably to focused on winning money and did loose the fun part.
And like I said before sportsbetting is a hobby for me. So it should be fun. The winning money part is just an extra bonus.

I'm still playing on OLBG. Hey I even did win a price last month. I became third in the Football Pro Tipster league, good for 25 GBP. Not much but free money.

Besides OLBG, I did start to play poker again. No rules, just having fun. You can read about my adventures on Learning Texas Holdem Poker.

Cheers,
Dremeber