Friday, October 16, 2009

Here we go again

I'm glad that I did stay of the Friendly games. For sure I would have selected Belgium to win in Estonia but we all know the result of that game. I will be hard for us to qualify ourselves for another big tourney.

The 6 selected games for this weekend are:
1 Arsenal Birmingham 1
2 KVK Roeselare 1
3 Lyon Sochaux 1
4 Man U Bolton 1
5 NEC ADO 1
6 Anderlecht Charlerloi 1

All home wins as you can see. The matches which will probably break or make this bet are NEC - ADO and Kortijk - Roeselare. I did pick these to lift the possible pay-out to an acceptable level.
While ADO isn't bad, they don't have an away reputation. NEC should be capable of winning this game 8 out of 10 times.
Kortrijk has a lot more quality than Roeselare and to this to more than decent defense and we have a winner.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Sunday, October 11, 2009

So, it was a safe bet

Well 6 games correct, good for a profit of 7.30 euros.
Also glad that I did stay of the supertoto, I doubt it if I would have predicted 12 out of 14 correct.

Still not sure if I will play on the World Cup qualification games of Wednesday. In a lot of groups everything is already decided, which makes a lot of games of Wednesday pure friendly games and these are always dangerous.

In stead I will prepare my weekend bets. If you are playing to bet on Wednesday, the following odds are looking very appealing.

Italy - cyprus: 1 for 1.22
Estland - Belgium: 2 for 1.75

Cheers,
Dremeber

Thursday, October 08, 2009

A safe bet for this weekend?

To be honnest, a safe bet is a fantasy. But my bet for this weekend has such a low pay-out that it almost can have the stamp "safe bet" on it.

I will stay off the supertoto for this weekend, to many risky games involved. Last weekend I finally made a profit. 12 out of 14 games correct and this on a combined ticket good for a pay-out a little bit above 10 euros.

But back to the betting plan for this weekend. All qualification matches for the World Cup. Tip of the week: stay of the friendly matches!!!

I did an attempt to pick the most safe matches, at least safe in my eyes.
Armenie Spanje 2
Israel Moldavie 1
Kameroen Togo 1
Nigeria Mozambique 1
Portugal Hongarije 1
Servie Roemenie 1

If all of these macthes follow my prediction, I can pick up a pay-out of 13,3 euros.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Friday, October 02, 2009

Here comes the weekend (betting round 4)

And it started badly. 2 out of my 6 selected games were Friday evening matches. While Vitesse won against Sparta, AA Gent couldn't keep the 3 points at home against Mouscron and that last one was a surprise to me.

The other 4 games are:
- GBA - Westerlo: 1
- Heracles - FC Twente: 2
- Inter - Udinese: 1
- Marseille - Monaco: 1

As you can see, a lot of risky bets for this weekend. With these I was hoping to make up the loss in the EL. But with 1 incorrect prediction already it will be though to make a profit, which is still possible. We will see.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Profit made on the CL, up to the EL

The system worked. Yeah!!! 5 out of 6 correct, good for a profit of 1.87 euros. Probably I'm not the only one who did not predict the loss of AC Milan at home against Zurich.

So we are now 2 betting rounds far. On the positive side we had a pay-out of 8.53 euros, on the negative side the ante was 12 euros. It should have been better, but the first betting round was a real downer with only 3 out of 6 games correct.

Tomorrow there is a match day in the euro league. I have picked the following matches:
- FC Twente - Bucaresti: 1
- Galatasaray - Strum Graz: 1
- Hamburg - Hapoel Tel Aviv: 1
- PSV - Cluj: 1
- Roma - CSKA Sofia: 1
- Shaktar D. - Partizan Belgrado: 1

Good luck,
Dremeber

Monday, September 28, 2009

Champions League here we come

Last weekend wasn't an excellent start of my new betting plan to be honest. Only 3 games out of 6 correct. Nothing to brag about. Good, not actually a good word, for a pay-out of 0.66 euros.

So lets start with betting round number 2. I have picked the following 6 games from the champions league games:
1. AC Milan - FC Zurich: 1
2. Arsenal - Olumpiakos: 1
3. Bordeaux - Maccabie Haifa: 1
4. DVCS Debrecen - Lyon: 2
5. Glasgow Rangers - Sevilla: 2
6. Manchester United - VFL Wolfsburg: 1

If all 6 are correct, it means a pay-out of 20,26 euros.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Thursday, September 24, 2009

A new betting plan. What do you think about it?

Cause my previous betting plan did take to much time in preparation and wasn't quit as successful as I hoped it was.
So it is time for a new betting plan. I tried it last weekend and it made me a profit of 20 euros.

So here it is:
In stead of creating multiple combos, I only create 1 betting slip. On this slip I will play multiple combination all with an ante of 0.10 euros.
An example: This midweek I selected 6 games and filled in the betting slip as followed:
- 15 doubles @ 0.10 euro per double
- 20 trebles @ 0.10 euro per treble
- 15 fourfolds @ 0.10 euro per foudfold
- 6 fivefolds @ 0.15 euro per fivefold
- 1 sixfold @ 1 euro
So the total ante was 6.90 euro. Cause all the six games were correct the pay-out was 27.45 euro.

The big advantage with playing this betting plan is that it is possible to make a profit without having each 6 games correct. Depending on the odds it is possible to make a profit from 4 games and above of course.
Another advantage is that even with only 3 games correct you will receive a pay-out and minimizing the losses.

I will give myself 10 betting rounds to evaluate this betting plan. In stead of playing 1 euro on the sixfold I will play 0.4 euros on the sixfold. On all others I will bet 0.10 euros. Making a total ante of 6 euros per betting round.
Let's see what it brings.

Feedback very much appreciated,
Dremeber

Friday, August 14, 2009

No weekend bets? Only a supertoto

Hi all,

Silly me. I lost my sheet with the selected bets for this weekend and cause I do have the feeling that creating new ones is a bad idea I decided to only play the Supertoto.

In stead of going for a 1.60 euro ticket I doubled my ante, so it became a 3.20 ticket. Droping my bankroll just above 50 euros. So if it is a loosing ticket I did spend my complete deposit bonus.
So here is my Supertoto ticket for this week.


I guess that no explanation for this ticker is needed.

Good luck all with the bets this weekend.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, August 07, 2009

Weekend bets

Sorry for the late posting but had to play myself this evening and earlier in the week I was to buys with work.

The Twin:Cause I prefer to pick some risky matches for my Twin slip, the pay-out is pretty nice for a ticket with only 2 games. I also do believe that Roda should be capable of winning their first home game of the season. The draw last weekend @ Heereveen for sure will had a morale booster effect.
Lyon on the other side is determined to regain the title. Last season they surprisingly finished in spot 3. Le Mans on the other hand finished just above the relegation places. The odds are so high cause the bookies don't know yet what the real strength of the teams are at the moment.

The triplet:I expect a lot from VVV, for sure after their 3-3 draw at PSV. They really deserved it. I don't see them loosing their first home game of the season in the Eredivisie after a year of absense.
NAC Breda may not have any problem at home against Heracles. I do find the odds strangly high, we will see after the weekend if I was spot on.
The predicted victory for Hamburger SV is choosen as a good accumulator. Freiburg did promote last season back to the big boys. So they will be motivated enough to at least keep a point at home, but my gutfeeling says that the difference in quality between the teams is to big. If the game was later in the season, the story would be different cause Hamburger SV could underestimate them, but this won't happen in the first game of the season, which everybody wants to win.

The Multi Country special:Like the title says it all. A betting slip with a match of all the 4 comps I following. For rather safer bets. I don't see any problems for AZ and Werder Bremen. Also no worries for Rennes I guess. The thoughest one of the slip is the predicted victory of AA Gent against KV Mechelen, who did beat Westerlo last weekend with 4-1.

The Belgian Jupiler League Special:3 matches from the Belgian Jupiler League. STVV, the champs of the second division play at home against Charlerloi. Charlerloi is already facing 3 suspensions after the 3 red cards of last weekend. STVV have a good balanced team, who will, with the support of the supporter puzzle up Charlerloi.
Westerlo, was surprisingly beaten by KV Mechelen last weekend. Ceulemans is counting on his players to send out a message that it was just a combination of unfortunate events.
Anderlecht should have no problems with cercle Brugge at home.

So 4 euros at stake for the weekend. Hoping on a better result than last week.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Sunday, August 02, 2009

Oeps

What a bad start of the season. I ran into almost all surprises, bugger.

I could live with the fact that Standard Liege did not win against standard, missing 2 penalties in the 90th minute. But I was really surprised by the ass kicking Genk and AZ received.

Luckily, unibet always had bonus offer at the start of the season. This time it was a 20% reload bonus. So I did deposit my planned 50 euros, to see 60 euros added to my BR.

So up to the midweek European matches.

I also added a link to my stats page. For once I tried to do it with google docs. You can find the link in the first sidebar at the right.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Thursday, July 30, 2009

And of we go!

I have been waiting on it for weeks but finally the Belgian Jupiler League and the Eredivisie starts. So time for the first bets of the season. This weekend I will be betting the Belgian Jupiler League special, a twin, a triple and one quadruple.
So the total investment for this weekend will be 4 euros. No Supertoto XL this weekend, so no supertoto for me! Like always, all slips are 1 euro bets.

The Belgian Jupiler Special (aka BJS)
The BJS will contain 3 games this weekend. The first game kicks off on Friday when champion Standard Liege will face the newcomer STVV. I don't expect any problems for Standard, which kept almost their complete team intact.
The next game is Roeselare - GBA. I expect a good start of GBA. Last year they missed their start completely but with some good winter transfer to easily kept away from relegation danger. I predict a difficult season for Roeselare. My prediction Roeselare will start the new season with 0 points. I expect at least a 2 goal different victory for GBA, with at least one goal for Macdonald.
Last game in this slip is KRC Genk - Mouscron. While Genk always has up and downs, they showed potential in the super cup and shouldn't have any problem with Mouscron.
Standard Liege, Germinal Beerschot and KRC Genk -> 3.99

The twins
In the twin slip, one safe bet and one with a little more risk but one where I believe in. The safe bet is a home win of Feyenoord. The legion is expecting a much better season than last season. The risky part is the predicted win of Zulte Waregem on Lokeren. Zulte did not loose in the pre season games, score 28 goals and only conceived 8. Lokeren will start building a new team, while the first team of Zulte remained almost intact.
Feyenoord and Zulte Waregem -> 4.71

The Tripled
3 Dutch games in this slip. I do expect an easy home win for PSV an easy victory for AZ on Heracles and a little more risky victory for Ajax on Groningen. All very possible and put them together and youhave really nice odds.
PSV, AZ and Ajax -> 3.40

The Quadruple
More or less a safe quadruple. 2 games from Belgium where I expect the 2 big favorites for the title will win their first game of the season easily.
The 2 other games or from the Dutch eredivisie. Where Heereveen should have no problem with Roda at home. Roda did loose quality during the transfer season and without fresh blood they will face a hard and long season. FC Twente should take the victory at Sparta. Twente easily should end in the top 3 and to achieve this, there is no other option than taking the 3 points in Sparta.
Standard Liege, Anderlecht, FC Twente and Heereveen -> 3.92

Check back on Monday or Tuesday, the check the results.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Betting plan 2009-2010

The football season is knocking on the door. So it is time to set up my betting strategy for this season.
Last season I doubled my BR and so that’s my goal for next season.

All my best will be placed at Unitbet, my preferred bookie.

First my general rules:
• I will only play combos and the supertoto.
• All my bets will be 1€ bets.
• The maximum ticket price for the supertoto will be 1.60€.
• I will stay of the season bets for the moment. Maybe during the winter break when I have a better funded BR I will place some.
• The starting BR for this season will be 50€.
• Only 1 fun combo per week!
• The maximum ante per week will be 6.60€.
• My season starts at the 31st of July and end after the World cup 2010. (If my BR allows it)

My betting plan:
There will 3 types of bets I will be playing. The combo (mostly on football) betting, the football supertoto and the fun combo.
Sometimes I will sidestep to different sports like Tennis or the F1. But 90% off all bets will be football related.

The fun combo:
Once a week I will be playing a fun combo. This is a betting slip with 12 bets (the maximum @ Unibet) combined. The bets will be covering all kinds of sports. I’m hoping that I can combine 2 or 3 successful fun combos. Which if I succeed will be enough to assure a profitable season.

The Weekend bets:
During a regular football weekend I will play the following combos:
The Belgian Jupiler League special, which will cover 2 to 3 games of the Jupiler League. This is the competition of my country, so I expect a lot of these bets.

The multi country special: This betting slip will contain 1 game of each of the big European football competitions (Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Ligue 1, La primera division) completed with games for the Dutch Eredivisie and the Belgium Jupiler League.

The twins: It is what it says it is. A combo of 2 games from the 7 competitions above. In general this will be a more risky ticket, with a pay-out of around 2€.

The triplet: Same as the double but this time with 3 games.

The quadruple: This slip will contain 4 games. In contrast to the double I will play more rather safe games here. The question is what you consider a rather safe. This will be most of the time home games of the big favourites of 1 of the 7 competitions.

The supertoto XL or XXL: 14 games in this ticket. The biggest advantage is that a ticket costs only 0.10€. The pot is divided among the players who have 11 to 14 correct predictions on their ticket. The matches on the ticket are most likely games from the Premier League, Serie A and La Primera Division. The matches are played on Saturday and Sunday. I will play one ticket of 1.60€, meaning that I can tick 5 boxes extra.

The midweek bets:
If it is a regular midweek with no European games. It will be the same as the weekend bets.
If it is a midweek full of European matches. I will place the following bets:
The septet: Will only be played in the beginning of the season when there are enough European matches to choose from.
The triplet: 2 per midweek with 3 European matches.

The stats:
Of course I will record my statistics, so you can see how safe a type of bet can be followed (or not!).

I will keep the following stats:
* The general BR flow per month
* Per betting type
* The number of bets played
* The number of winning tickets
* Money invested
* Money won
* Profit Made

Good luck,
Dremeber

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Jupiler League Preview 2009

2 weeks to go and the new football season begins in Belgium. And it will be a real fresh start. The competition has been revised to increase top games, generate more income from the TV rights and decrease the number of teams within the top league.

From this season on there will be only 16 teams in the Belgium Jupiler League. The season is also split in two parts. In part 1 all teams play in a regular home and away format against each other. At the end of this part. The competition is played further in 3 play-off leagues. The top 6 will play the champion play-offs. All teams will take 50% of their earned points to this. The winner of this play-off is the Champion of Belgium. The second will play the qualification for the CL, the third will get rewarded with a ticker for the EL. Number 4 will play an elimination match against the winner of the other 2 play-off leagues for the remaining EL tickets.

The numbers 7 to 14 are divided into 2 separate play-off leagues. No points are taken from the regular competition. Both winners of the league will play each other and the winner will face number 4 of the champions play-offs for the remaining EL tickets.

Number 15 will play a promotion/relegation play-off with the number 2, 3 and 4 of the Exqui league.
Number 16 will relegate to the second division.

So that's the format. Now let's have a look at the major transfers.
Well to be honest there aren't any. Although it is quiet a surprise that Champion Standard Liege (at the moment) only lost 1 key player. (Onyewu to Ac Milan) But the transfer window is still open until the end of August so a lot can happen.
No big names are moving in Anderlecht. Club Brugge did buy Donk, but if that is the biggest transfer in Belgium the crisis is really hitting the competition hard.
These 4 teams will probably reach the champion play-offs.

For the other 2 places it will be a fight between Genk, GBA, Westerlo and Zulte Waregem.


The 2 candidates for the title are of course Standard Liege and Anderlecht. Both teams are more or less unchanged. I favor Anderlecht a little bit more. Standard will loose some points in the beginning due to the CL.
The outsiders are Gent and Club Brugge. The question is how Gent can replace Ruiz, who has been sold (on request) to FC Twente. Club Brugge has to make up for a lost year but I don't believe they will with an almost unchanged team.

At the bottom it is really hard to favor a team for relegation. STVV, the second division champions, have a real small squad. Mouscron still has financial problems and Roeselare lost MacDonald to GBA.

I'm still waiting if Unibet will offer bets on which team will play which play-off.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Friday, July 17, 2009

Quick TDF update

Due to a holiday I didn't had much time to bet, let online update my blog.

Nothing shocking has happened. I added 2 euros on Martinez to take the Polka dot jersey.
And for today I'm hoping that one of the following riders will win today:
S. Casar @ 25
Kreuziger @ 35
S. Chavanel @ 17

Or that one of the riders below will finish in the top 3.
V. Nibali @ 9
A. Schleck @ 6
A. Contador @ 7.50

A more decent post when I'm back. Having to much fun with my son and wife to spend some time blogging.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Cav will not win tomorrow! Roddick will take a set!

Shit happens. I was to focused on registering for two fantasy games I'm participating in.
So what did happen today? Well Cancellara did what everybody was expecting from him. He won the first TT of the TDF 2009 with supremacy.

Serena won wimbledon. Not a surprise for me but this is easy said knowing the score. I was planning to place a bet on her but shopping had a higher priority.

My favorite Italian restaurant is for sale. Bummer!!!

Let's take a look at tomorrow bets.
Wimbledon
Well that's an easy one. Federer will win but not as easy as everybody is expecting. Unibet is offering odds of 1,12 for a win for Federer and 6.40 for a Roddick surprise.
I think that more value can be obtained in set betting. I expect that Roddick with his powerful serve will take at least one set. The odds on a victory for Federer with 3-1 or 3-2 are much more appealing that just betting on the victory.
I have placed a bet on both 3-1 (3.40) and 3-2 (8.50), so if Roddick does what I expect from him then I'm making a profit.

Tour de France
Everybody is expecting a first bunch sprint and a victory for Cavendish. But I'm not so sure. The course contains 4 climbs of 4th category and a small steep hill at 10km for the finish. I expect a crazy start with cause some riders do want to take that Yellow Jersey, this will cost Cav some power. Remember he is the lesser climber of the sprinters. Also the steep hill at 10km for the finish is an excellent opportunity for a new break away (if the bunch is intact at the moment). So I'm not betting on Cav the odds are in my eyes just not good enough.

Tomorrow we will know more.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

TDF preview part 3: The king of the mountains.

Well I guess you expected the chicken with the golden eggs. Finally somebody who knew who the real contenders were for this competition.

Well I have to let you down. I really have no clue. In the old days it was easy you could safely bet on Virenque. Another safe bet was that the king of the mountain would be caught within 1 or 2 year on doping (Rasmussen, Kohl, Virenque, etc…).

If I look at the odds of most bookmakers, Moncoutie is the only favorite followed by a bunch of climbers. With odds of 3.75 it isn’t such a crazy bet. Don’t forget that he came second in the king of the mountains competition during the Dauphine.

But bookmakers also say the Contador will take the Polka dot jersey home. I personally don’t believe this. GC contenders normally only attack at the last mountain of the stage and most of the time only if the stage ends on top of the mountain. This year there are 3 such stages.

Of course there are always the outsiders like A. Schleck, Sastre, Gesink, Martin (both T and D.) and so on.
But this competition is too unpredictable to go into depth with a preview.


During the search for valuable content I did discover that luckily my Bookmaker is offering the best odds on the net. For sure if you for instance believe that Evans will win. Unibet odds on Evans are sometimes 50% higher than other bookies. So, remember that is not only important who to bet on, but also where to bet!!


Good luck,
Dremeber

Monday, June 29, 2009

TDF part 2: The green jersey!

Part 2 of the TDF preview. Today we will be looking at the potential winners of the green jersey.
First let’s take a look at the odds for the main players. This time in stead of 5, 7 contenders. At the moment it is still not sure if Tom Boonen is allowed to participate, Tuesday we will now more.


Look always, the odds come from Unibet.
Cavendish (Team Columbia) – 2.00
Freire (Rabobank) – 4.50
Bennati (Liquigas) – 6.00
Boonen (Quickstep) – 7.00
Hushovd (Cervelo) – 8.00
Haussler (Cervelo) – 22.00
Napolitano (Katuska)– 25.00

Cavendish:
At the moment probably the fastest sprinter based on pure speed and power. He also has learned to hang in there on small climbs. The best prove of this is his victory in Milan San Remo.
But he has never finished in Paris in the past 2 tours. Also, he is probably the lesser climber of all sprinters which can be dangerous.
On the positive side the course fits him like a glove with probably 5 or 6 bunch sprints. Don’t be surprised if he takes down at least 4 of them. (15 victories this year.)

Freire:
He is always there when a bunch sprint takes place. Maybe he doesn’t posses the pure speed to beat Cavendish, but there are 1 or 2 stages where he probably will take points for the jersey, while Cavendish is struggling to stay at the bunch. The finish in Barcelona is such a classic example. 2 victories this year.


Bennati:
He really wants that green jersey but that’s not enough. He is fast enough and is one of the sprinters who were capable of beating Cavendish. Maybe he can do this again this TDF. He also will have no problem getting through the high mountains. The problem is that he did have some health problems in the past year and probably didn’t have an excellent preparation for this years Tour. 3 victories this year.

Boonen:
It all will depend on the verdict of the French Supreme Court. If he is allowed to start he probably wants to prove what he can. But in pure speed he can’t overpower Cavendish. On the other hand he proved last Sunday that he is ready by winning, for the first time, the Belgian Championship. 4 victories this year.



Hushovd:
Certitude for the green jersey. Almost always ending in the top5 when it comes down to a bunch sprint and that’s how you win the jersey. Last year he ended second place but Freire has the course advantage. He also has a great lead out with Haussler but that also can be his disadvantage if he fails to get a decent result in the first 2 sprints. He can do it, but I don’t expect him to win the jersey. 4 victories this year.

Haussler:
The lead out for Cavendish but is for sure fast enough to win a bunch sprint if Cavendish is not available. He will only get chances when Hushovd fails or crashes. 4 victories this year.




Napolitano:
A real pure sprinter. Didn’t expect to go to the Tour this year but Steegmans didn’t sign the doping charter of the team. So Katuska did not select Steegmans and gave Napolitano the chance. He will end some times in the top 5 but I don’t see him winning a race or the green jersey. Just like Haussler don’t throw your money away. 3 victories this year.

My verdict:
If we are honest and look at the profile of the stages, there could only one big favorite for the green jersey and that’s mark Cavendish. But betting wise the odds are maybe to low for a 3 week race where a lot can happen. He will need to score a lot of points during the 4 potential bunch sprints because the high mountains will come soon this year. Maybe it is not the question if he survives them but how much energy will cost it to survive them. The best bet looks to be Freire or Hushovd. My money is on both of them.

Success,
Dremeber

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Who will win the Tour de France 2009?

In the next week we will prepare ourselves for the Tour de France.
In this part we will focus on the potential winners and their odds. I will also try to explain why a rider can win it or why not.

The biggest problem is the length of the tour de France. It lasts 3 weeks in which a lot can happen (sickness, falls, etc…). Also we may not underestimate the doping ghost!

In all my posts I’m using the odds of Unibet.

First let’s take a look at the top5.
Contador (Astana) – 1,85
Armstrong (Astana) – 4,50
Schleck A. (Saxo) – 9,00
Evans (Silence – Lotto) – 13,00
Menchov (Rabobank) – 16,00

Contador
Why will he win?
At the moment he is maybe the talented rider of the pack. Winning 2 years ago. Last year due to the team doping policy his team was not allowed to participate at the Tour.
He is riding for the best team and probably he of one of his teammates will take yellow after the team time trial. If so it will be though to get him out of the yellow.
Another reason why he will win is that the combined total of kilometer against the clock (not including the team time trial) is reduced to 56 km. I consider for instance Evans and Armstrong better riders against the clock.

Why not?
At Astana he leads the team, but there are also others in the team, who already have won the tour of finished in the top 5. So, it is not sure that if he is having a bad day, the complete team will help him, because others will go for their own chances.
Armstrong will ride a better a better opening time trial and therefore will have a bonus on Contador.

Armstrong
Why will he win?
Well it is simple; he won his last 7 tours. (Still incredible)
He is a better rider against the clock than Contador. He is one of the best friends of Johan Bruyneel. He did ride the Giro as preparation and was getting better and better by the day. And last but not least he has the most tour experience of them all.

Why not?
His preparation was disturbed by a big crash, breaking his collar bone.
He is already 38 years old. If he wins, he will be the oldest rider to win the tour.
He is not the number one in the team, which is Contador.
He was out of competition for 3 years!

Schleck A.
Why will he win?
Well to be honest I don’t see Andy Schleck winning the tour. I do see him within the top 5. He did great last year, winning the white jersey and ending in 12th place overall. He could however profit from Cancellara in the TTT.
Probably he will win the Tour de France eventually, but I don’t expect it to be this year. Maybe in 2011.

Why not?
There are not enough finishes on the top of the mountains. Only 3.
He is a good time rider but not good enough.

Evans
Why will he win?
He is in good shape and after so many places this could his year. A good example of this is that he did beat Contador in the Dauphine.
No question about it, every one within the team has to ride for Cadel.

Why not?
His team. Pff, such a good rider but almost always alone in the mountains. Also he will loose a lot of time in the TTT. Probably too much to make up.

Menchov
Why will he won?
He did win the Giro so he is in good shape.

Why not?
He did win the Giro
Just like Evans he will loose time in the TTT.
He is not an attacking rider and will have to do this to capture the yellow jersey after the TTT.

My verdict:
Everybody thinks that Contador will win the Tour (look at the odds), but I think that there is bigger chance that he won’t. Better value bets will be Evans of even A. Schleck.
My buck will be one Evans, with a return of 13 to 1.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Saturday, March 07, 2009

Hibernation?

Well this blog goes into hibernation once more. Why?
Well it is simple, at the moment I'm not placing any bets anymore. Had a bad streak and decided to sit it out without continuing to loose money. So I did withdraw all my money from my online bookie. I was probably to focused on winning money and did loose the fun part.
And like I said before sportsbetting is a hobby for me. So it should be fun. The winning money part is just an extra bonus.

I'm still playing on OLBG. Hey I even did win a price last month. I became third in the Football Pro Tipster league, good for 25 GBP. Not much but free money.

Besides OLBG, I did start to play poker again. No rules, just having fun. You can read about my adventures on Learning Texas Holdem Poker.

Cheers,
Dremeber