Wednesday, August 26, 2015
The football season started again and so my urge to take another gamble on the sports markets.
I did credit my Unibet account with €30 at the end of July. At the moment my account statement says €90. But there is more. I did already cash twice. The first withdrawal was €75 and the second was €96. I know that these are strange numbers but I don’t like it having much more than €100 on my Unibet account. If this is the situation I tend to take more risks, both in staking and in odds.
Most of my profit does come from the Superscore game on Unibet. I did have 2 winning tickets, good for a pay-out of around 260€.
This already indicates that I have a very big leak somewhere. Without looking at my betting log, I already know that this probably are my bets on the Supertoto. If I’m not mistaken, I did bet around €60 on various tickets, with only 1 small winning. Still I do have faith in the Supertoto.
In contrast to other years I don’t have a fixed betting plan for each week, sport or competition. I must admit that I do like it this way. On the other side I will have a review on my betting log to find leaks. Leaks can only be solved in 2 possible ways, stay away from the particular market or do much more investigation before placing a bet.
I also play less combinations.
In contrast to having no specific betting plan, I did set up something for the Jupiler Pro League in Belgium. Not alone I do have some kind of betting plan, I also will publish these on the latest 1 day before the first match kicks off (maybe not all odds will be filled in, due to the fact that Unibet is late in the goal scorer market).
The plan is as followed. Each matchday I will place 4 types of bets.
Bet 1: JPL8 1X2 -> This is a betting slip on all games of the round. On each game I will predict home win, draw, away win, home win / draw or away win/draw. The stake on this betting slip will always be €1.
Bet 2: JPL5 R -> This is a betting slip, with 5 games of the round on it. In stead of 1X2 bets, the type of bets will be in the order of home team scores (HTS), away team scores (ATS), both team scores (BTS), clean sheet home (CSH), clean sheet away (CSA), over/under 2,5 goals (O 2,5 or U2,5), home team wins at least one half (HWH), away team wins at least one half (AWH). Also each time a €1 stake.
Bet 3: JPL2 SP -> Only 2 bets on this type of ticket. I will try to predict 2 players which will score during the matchday. Also here a €1 bet.
Bet 4: JPL2 CS -> This one is more a fantasy bet, than a real one. The chances that I will have a winning tickets during the 25 remaining round are very slim. That’s why the stake will be only €0,5 per betting slip. I will try to predict 2 correct score from the matchday.
The total investment of this will be €87,5 for the season.
Based on the average winning odds of last season I will need the following figures to make a profit per betting type:
JPL8 1X2 -> 3 winning tickets
JPL5 R -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 SP -> 4 winning tickets
JPL2 CS -> 1 winning ticket (if this comes true, that a profit is guaranteed over the complete scheme)
I’ll keep you posted. Thursday evening I will post my first bets for the Jupiler Pro League.