Premier League, Bundesliga and Jupiler Pro League Prediction

Predictions matchday 15: Premier League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
ChelseaNewcastle1NoUnder1-03-1
BrightonLiverpoolXYesUnder1-11-5
EvertonHuddersfield1NoUnder2-02-0
LeicesterBurnleyXYesUnder1-11-0
StokeSwanseaXNoUnder0-02-1
WatfordTottenham2NoOver0-31-1
West BromCrystal Palace1NoUnder1-00-0
ArsenalMan United1NoUnder1-01-3
BournemouthSouthampton1NoUnder1-01-1
Man CityWest Ham1YesOver5-02-1
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Predictions matchday 14: Bundesliga
HomeAway1X2BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
FreiburgHamburg1NoUnder1-00-0
MainzAugsburgXYesUnder1-11-3
LeverkusenDortmund1YesOver2-11-1
Bayern MunichHannover1NoOver3-03-1
HoffenheimRB LeipzigXYesUnder1-14-0
Werder BremenStuttgart1NoUnder1-01-0
Schalke 04FC Koln1NoUnder1-02-2
HerthaEin frankfurt2NoUnder0-11-2
WolfsburgM'Gladbach2YesOver1-33-0
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Predictions matchday 17: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
CharleroiOostende1NoUnder1-01-1
LokerenAnderlecht2NoUnder0-21-2
KortrijkWaasland-BeverenXYesUnder1-14-1
MouscronSt TruidenXYesOver2-21-1
MechelenGenkXYesUnder1-13-2
StandardAntwerpXYesUnder1-11-1
EupenClub Brugge2YesOver1-22-2
WaregemGent2YesOver1-20-1
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Prediction Premier League Matchday 14

Prediction Matchday 14: Premier League
HomeAway
Brighton10Crystal Palace
Leicester02Tottenham
Watford02Man United
West Brom10Newcastle
Arsenal30Huddersfield
Bournemouth01Burnley
Chelsea00Swansea
Everton11West Ham
Man City30Southampton
Stoke23Liverpool
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Bundesliga

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Bundesliga
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
HannoverStuttgart2YesOver2-00-2
DortmundSchalke 041NoOver1-14-4
Ein FrankfurtLeverkusen2YesOver1-20-1
AugsburgWolfsburg1YesUnder1-12-1
RB LeipzigWerder Bremen1YesOver1-02-0
M'gladbachBayern Munich2NoUnder0-22-1
HamburgHoffenheim2YesOver0-23-0
FC KolnHertha1NoUnder0-10-2
FreiburgMainz1NoUnder0-02-1
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13 Premier League

My first attempt to make a Poisson prediction for round 13 of the English Premier League.
If the model is correct it is going to be a boring round, with only 14 goals :(
Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Premier League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
West HamLeicester2YesOver1-21-1
Crystal PalaceStoke1NoUnder1-12-1
Man UnitedBrighton1NoUnder2-01-0
NewcastleWatford1YesOver1-10-3
SwanseaBournemouth1YesUnder0-00-0
TottenhamWest Brom1NoUnder1-01-1
LiverpoolChelsea1YesUnder0-01-1
southamptonEverton1NoUnder1-04-1
BurnleyArsenal2YesUnder1-00-1
HuddersfieldMan City2NoUnder0-21-2
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good luck, Dremeber

Poisson Prediction Jupiler Pro League Matchday 16

Hi all,

Last week the Poisson model had a good week:
1X2: 5 out of 8 correct
BTTS: 4 out of 8 correct
Over/Under 2.5: 5 out of 8 correct
Correct score: A whooping 3 out of 8 correct

Let's see if this week Poisson Prediction for the Belgians Jupiler Pro League will be as good.

Poisson Prediction Matchday 16: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
GentMouscron1NoUnder0-03-1
AntwerpMechelen1YesOver2-00-0
OostendeEupen1YesOver3-21-0
St TruidenLokeren1NoUnder1-10-0
Waasland-BeverenCharleroi2NoUnder1-10-2
GenkStandard1YesOver0-00-2
AnderlechtKortrijk1NoOver1-04-0
Club BruggeWaregem1YesOver2-03-2
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good Luck, Dremeber

Poisson prediction matchday 15: Jupiler Pro League

Here is my Poisson prediction for Matchday 15 of the Belgian Jupiler Pro League!

Poisson prediction Matchday 15: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
CharleroiMechelen1YesUnder2-02-0
MouscronAnderlecht2YesOver1-21-2
EupenAntwerp2YesOver1-20-1
KortrijkSt Truiden1NoUnder1-03-2
StandardOostende1YesUnder1-10-0
WaregemGenk1NoUnder1-20-1
Club BruggeWaasland-Beveren1NoOver3-03-0
LokerenGent2NoUnder0-10-3
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good luck, Dremeber

October recap

October was a good, maybe even a great month.

I did manage to create a profit, which makes it good. The total profit can still rise, due to the fact that 2 games from a 3 fold acca draw have to be played.

But I also made some mistakes. The biggest one, is that I did place to many acca’s on the last match day of the moment.
The idea behind this was that I was happy with my 50+ profit and that I was sure that at least one acca would land.

But it was a worth full lesson. Glad that I did made the mistake.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:


75 accas played, a total ante of €154,72 and a total pay-out of €211,71. This gives us a profit of €55,43. A very healthy ROI of 35,47%.

SixFold Win Acca
The biggest profit was made with the Sixfold Win acca’s. Good for almost halve the profit.

This could have been much better. From the 3 loosing tickets, 2 of them only had 1 incorrect. One was lost due to a missed penalty in the 85th minute.

Will be a keeper. But only on matchday where I can pick from more than 40 matches.

Trifold Draw FC
These are full cover bets, on 3 draws. In the beginning I did play the singles doubles and the trebles. But after investigating my results, I did eliminate the single bets.

16 tickets were played. 6 with the renewed ante (€2,5) and then with the old staking plan (€4).

One ticket was landed nicely. Good for a pay-out of €53,61.
Only one other ticket came close with 2 correct draws. Still good for a small profit.

Overall a €14,79 profit, with a ROI of 26,89%. Will continue these in November. One correct per month should be good enough to ensure a profit.

Fourfold Mixed
4 games on these tickets, consisting of 1X2, Over and BTTS bets. Mostly I did combine bankers with higher odds.

Played 11 of these in October, and it delivered a profit of €8,82. Still a ROI of 52,81%. The ROI is so high due to the fact that the ante per tickets in lower than the other Accas. How more games on the betting slip, how lower my ante is.

Only one win, good enough for a pay-out of €25,52.
Will be a keeper for next month.

Trifold O2.5

Betting slips with 3 games over 2.5 goals. I did expect a higher profit from this acca type.
Played 13 of these and it delivered a profit of €3,76. 4 winning tickets and 4 with only  incorrect.

This is one of the corner stones of my betting plan.

Trifold Win
Shocking that this stands so low on the profit list. It is my betting type with the highest ante in total. Good for a small profit of €2,03. Only a ROI of 8,21%, which is still better than bringing money to the bank J

Only 3 winning tickets here, which should be higher next month. Lots of near wins with 5 tickets with only 1 incorrect. Just like the overs, this is one of the corner stones of my betting plan.

Tennis Double
Did only started playing these on the last days of the month. Based on the twitter account of @UpTheStakes.

2 tickets played, 2 tickets won. Shouldn’t it always be like this? To be honnest not enough info to make a conclusion. Will continue to play these in November with a max of 2 per day!

We are now moving to the tickets were I can learn from J

Trifold BTTS
For me personally one of the hardest to play. Most of the time I underestimate the situations in which an underdog still nets a goal. This turns this betting type into a red one. A loss of €-4,33 is recorded.

Played 12 times, with an average ante of 1,5 per ticket. Only 2 wins and only 2 near wins. So more research has to be done. But I do consider the BTTS together with the 3fold win and over, the cornerstones of my betting plan. For the moment, no reason the wipe out these bets.

SixFold Over Acca
Only played 2 tickets. Both tickets didn’ have a chance L
Will play a few of them next month. When it stays a loosing Acca, then it will be eliminated from December onwards.

So overall a good month. But still a lot of improvement can be made.

From now on, the blog will only be used to do recaps or brag about winning tickets. The bets itself are tweeted on my twitter account. @FullCoverBet.

Cheers,
Dremeber

My official 2017-2018 betting season starts at the first of September.


My official 2017-2018 betting season starts at the first of September.

I’m still doubting if I will continue to blog about sports betting on this blog, create a new blog or just stop completely with blogging. We will see which direction life brings me. The problem about blogging that it does cost a lot of time.

If I do continue blogging I do need to bring this blog to a higher level and most of all improve my writing skills!!

Like told in the beginning my betting season starts on the first of September. It is not that I’m not betting now, but more playing around in a sandbox. Trying out some new betting strategies and trying to set up a betting plan for the new season.

Why do I start the first of September. By starting then, I hope to have some more insight in the competitions, balancing the teams and most of all cause the transfer market is closed.

The betting bank for the new season will be €150. Like each year the aim to make a profit J, which is harder than it looks. For sure cause I don’t play single bets.

Before we can look forward, we have to look back and try to figure out where it did go wrong last season. Unfortunately and luckily there are several reasons.
-          Too much compulsive bets;
-          Some bets with a higher stake than should be allowed according to the betting bank;
-          Shots in the dark;
-          Betting with emotions;
-          Too many outstanding bets;
-          Trying to chase lost bets;
-          Forgetting that sports betting is a marathon and not a sprint.

So, we do know where it went wrong. The question is how can we avoid such mistakes for the new betting season.

Most of the flaws can be corrected by forcing myself to restrict the number of bets and ante during weekdays and weekends and most important of all sticking to these restrictions.

Easy peasy, isn’t?

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tips and Picks: Round 7 Play-off Jupiler Pro League

4 more rounds to play before the season in Belgium ends.
At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by the 1X2 bets. Don't know what the problem is there. I decided to continue to play them, to have a complete historical record for next years play-offs.

I would be nice to score another Acca. I did hope on 3 acca's, so one to go.
As always all my bets are placed at:

My 1X2 tips and bets for this round:


RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub Brugge1X21222G21
SP7MechelenWaasland-Beveren1X211,510-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselare1X211,7610-1
SP7LokerenMouscron1X211,8510-1
SP7St TruidenStandard1X213,5X0-1
SP7OostendeGent1X213,45X0-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregem1X211,2810-1
SP7GenkEupen1X211,2810-1

The Over/Under market stand on a small profit for the moment, let's continue this momentum.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenO/U12,08U0-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselareO/U11,48O0-1
SP7LierseUnionO/U11,94O0-1
SP7LokerenMouscronO/U12,25U0-1
SP7St TruidenStandardO/U11,83O0-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregemO/U12,75U0-1
SP7GenkEupenO/U11,38O0-1

The BTTS market is running on the other hand a little bit behind. These bets should bring green figures to this market:

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub BruggeBTTS12,02N0-1
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenBTTS11,88N0-1
SP7LierseUnionBTTS12,02N0-1
SP7LokerenMouscronBTTS12,25N0-1
SP7OostendeGentBTTS12,05N0-1
SP7GenkEupenBTTS12,12N0-1

My bets market at the moment, the correct score bets. At the moment delivering a profit of 4 units, good for a ROI of 8,7%.

RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP7CharleroiClub BruggeCS190-00-1
SP7MechelenWaasland-BeverenCS17,51-00-1
SP7KortrijkRoeselareCS18,51-10-1
SP7LokerenMouscronCS19,51-00-1
SP7St TruidenStandardCS171-10-1
SP7OostendeGentCS1101-00-1
SP7AnderlechtWaregemCS182-00-1
SP7GenkEupenCS192-00-1
SP7LierseUnionCS111,50-10-1

Last but not least my Acca's. After a good start, this betting market is also getting behind. One more correct will probably make it a winning market for the complete play-offs.

My 1X2 acca looks like this:

Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 1X2GenkEupen11,28
CharleroiClub Brugge22
KortrijkRoeselare11,74
MechelenWaasland11,5
Total6,68

My BTTS Acca is the following:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 BTTSSt TruidenStandardJ1,64
MechelenWaaslandN1,88
LokerenMouscronN2,25
GenkEupenN2,12
Total14,71

The O/U acca:
Home AwayPredictionOdds
4 O/ULierseUnionO1,94
KortrijkRoeselareO1,48
CharleroiClub BruggeU1,84
St TruidenStandardO1,83
Total9,67

Last but not least the Correct score Yankee, with a potential profit of 715 units :).
Home AwayPredictionOdds
CSGenkEupen2-09
St TruidenStandard1-17
AnderlechtWaregem2-08
CharleroiClub Brugge0-09
Total716,6

The test run of the Poisson model for the Dutch Eredivisie is almost done. If ready in time I will post the predictions according to the new model. I probably will not bet on it.

Good luck,
Dremeber

Betting tips round 6: Jupiler Pro League Play-offs

Like posted in the previous post there are 5 more round, to end the season in green figures.
For the moment the 4 O/U acca is assured of a profit.

For this weekend the following bets should deliver a profit for me.
In total 36 bets are placed, with a total ante of 36,35 units. Would be really nice in the Yankee correct score would come in, cause the potential pay-out is 3919 units.

So let's start with the 1X2 bets for this weekend:
8 bets, hoping on a lot of upsets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6GenkKortrijk1X211,3511G1,350,35
SP6LokerenEupen1X213,0521F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt Truiden1X212,4512F0-1
SP6LierseMechelen1X2131xF0-1
SP6GentAnderlecht1X212,72XF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroi1X214,221F0-1
SP6MouscronRoeselare1X214,321F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregem1X211,4511G1,450,45

In the Over/Under 2.5 market, 7 bets. Almost all over 2.5 bets.
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionO/U11,57OOG1,570,57
SP6LokerenEupenO/U11,74OOG1,740,74
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenO/U12,02OUF0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtO/U11,85OUF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiO/U11,91UUG1,910,91
SP6MouscronRoeselareO/U11,69OUF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemO/U11,7OOG1,70,7

In the BTTS market, we expect a lot of clean sheets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkBTTS12,04NNG2,041,04
SP6LokerenEupenBTTS12,25NJF0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenBTTS12,02NNG2,021,02
SP6LierseMechelenBTTS11,7JNF0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiBTTS12NNG21
SP6MouscronRoeselareBTTS11,65JNF0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemBTTS11,85JJG1,850,85

Correct score bets:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP6StandardUnionCS1280-23-1F0-1
SP6GenkKortrijkCS18,52-03-0F0-1
SP6LokerenEupenCS1101-04-1F0-1
SP6WaaslandSt TruidenCS18,51-00-1F0-1
SP6LierseMechelenCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6GentAnderlechtCS171-10-0F0-1
SP6OostendeCharleroiCS181-01-0G87
SP6MouscronRoeselareCS1141-21-0F0-1
SP6Club BruggeWaregemCS18,52-12-1G8,57,5

Finally the Acca's:
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP64 1X219,85J0-1
SP64 BTS111,44J0-1
SP64 O/U1,259,38J0-1,25
SP6Yankee CS1,1J0-1,1

We are going for a third profitable round in a row!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Half way the Jupiler Pro League: Poisson evaluation

5 rounds far. What can I say. 3 winning weeks, 2 loosing weeks.
To bad for me the loosing round were worse than the winning rounds were good.
Week 1: + 7,06 units
Week 2: - 9,6 units
Week 3: -16 units
Week 4: + 6,85 units
Week 5: +0,85 units

# ante# Pay-outP/LROI#GF
OveralCS3733,5-3,5-9,46%3743310,81%
1X23929,98-9,02-23,13%39132633,33%
BTS3229,5-2,5-7,81%32161650,00%
O/U2323,680,682,96%23121152,17%
Yankee CS4,40-4,4-100,00%4040,00%
4 BTS59,64,692,00%51420,00%
4 1X250-5-100,00%5050,00%
4 O/U513,268,26165,20%51420,00%
150,4139,52-10,88-7,23%1504710331,33%


I did place 150 bets, good for an ante of 150,4. 47 bets were correct (31%), this number looks low but don't forget that there are also 37 correct score bets. If we wipe out the correct score bets, the hit rate increases to38%. Still to low.
The main cause is that on the 1X2 market the model only predicted 13 correct out of 39.

It is good to see that the Over/Under market is within the green figures and that the BTTS market (+3,1 units in week 5) is also getting close.

Overall I'm down for 10,88 unit, but I do still believe that a can end up in green figures.
5 more rounds to go.

Cheers,
Dremeber



Tips round 5: Jupiler Pro League

Due to time constraints a plain table with all my 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS and Correct score bets for round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League.
 
RoundHomeAwayTypeAnteOddsBetResultG/FPay-outP/L
SP5RoeselareKortrijk1X212,722G2,71,7-10,03
SP5StandardWaasland-Beveren1X211,5812F0-1-11,03
SP5WaregemGent1X213,35X2F0-1-12,03
SP5EupenGenk1X211,952XF0-1-13,03
SP5Club BruggeOostende1X211,5211G1,520,52-12,51
SP5MechelenSt Truiden1X211,9511G1,950,95-11,56
SP5MouscronLokeren1X213,55XXG3,552,55-9,01
SP5AnderlechtCharleroi1X211,4612F0-1-10,01
SP5RoeselareKortrijkBTS11,65JJG1,650,65-9,36
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenBTS12,05NNG2,051,05-8,31
SP5UnionLierseBTS12,08NJF0-1-9,31
SP5WaregemGentBTS11,9NNG1,90,9-8,41
SP5EupenGenkBTS11,54JJG1,540,54-7,87
SP5Club BruggeOostendeBTS11,98NJF0-1-8,87
SP5MechelenSt TruidenBTS12,08NNG2,081,08-7,79
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiBTS11,88NNG1,880,88-6,91
SP5RoeselareKortrijkO/U11,84OOG1,840,84-6,07
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenO/U12,14UUG2,141,14-4,93
SP5WaregemGentO/U12,18OUF0-1-5,93
SP5Club BruggeOostendeO/U11,71UOF0-1-6,93
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiO/U12,15UUG2,151,15-5,78
SP5RoeselareKortrijkCS1101-22-3F0-1-6,78
SP5StandardWaasland-BeverenCS18,52-00-2F0-1-7,78
SP5UnionLierseCS111,52-01-3F0-1-8,78
SP5WaregemGentCS191-00-2F0-1-9,78
SP5EupenGenkCS18,51-21-1F0-1-10,78
SP5Club BruggeOostendeCS18,52-03-1F0-1-11,78
SP5MechelenSt TruidenCS181-01-0G87-4,78
SP5MouscronLokerenCS171-12-2F0-1-5,78
SP5AnderlechtCharleroiCS17,51-00-1F0-1-6,78
SP54 1X219,13JNF0-1-7,78
SP54 BTS112,42JNF0-1-8,78
SP54 O/U113,63JNF0-1-9,78
SP5Yankee CS1,1JNF0-1,1-10,88

Premier League, Bundesliga and Jupiler Pro League Prediction

Predictions matchday 15: Premier League Home Away 1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5 Correct Score Result Chelsea Newcastle 1 No Under 1-0 3-1 Brighto...