Looking forward to 2009

Normally people first look back at the previous year and afterward look forward to the next, well I will do it differently. Let’s take a look at my betting year 2009.

The start:
First we have to determine a starting bankroll for next year. At the moment I have a bankroll of 198€. Let’s be honest this is a dull figure to start with. So there are 2 options left (not a third cause a deposit is ruled out.
- Option 1: I will play some more bets this year hoping that my bankroll goes above 200. Not very likely cause there no more football games this year in the major European competitions.
- Option 2: I will bank some of my profit and start with a bankroll of 150€.

I will go for option number 2 for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: This would mean that I would have banked 100 euros in 2008, which is satisfying knowingly that I started with a miserable 50€ and reason number 2 is that this bankroll isn’t high enough to start taking to much risk but big enough to give a comfortable feeling. Everybody has it own comfort zone and 150 certainly is within mine.

The goals:
Well the absolute goal is to have fun and to give watching sports something extra. Another obvious goal is to make some profit. My first idea was to aim for an average profit of 25€ per month. But that would bring my total bankroll on 450€. So a better aim would be an ending bankroll of 500€ , which indicates an average profit of 29,16€ per month. Seems feasible to me but time will tell if it indeed was/is. But as long as my ending bankroll of 2009 is above my starting bankroll, the year will be a success.
A non related bankroll goal is that I should keeping track of statistics. And maybe extend it with a Supertoto part.

My betting rules for 2009:
I think that is is important to have some betting rules in place, where you should stick. Otherwise it is very easy to loose a lot of money when lady luck is against you. For me the next simple rules will go into order from January the 1st 2009.

Rule 1: Combos
In general all my combination bets will have an ante of 1€. I have been playing with the idea to increase this but never executed these plans. I strongly believe in combination betting but not in increasing the ante for this betting type. In general a combination bet may never have an ante of more than 1% of your bankroll. The Risk of Ruin is simply to high for this betting type. Certainly in footballs 1x2 bets.

Rule 2: Single bets.
The golden rule for me will be that a single bet may not be higher than 5% of my bankroll.
This rule is in place to prevent myself from panic betting. Once in a time taking a risk is not a problem, but an impulsive bet with an ante of higher than 5% of my bankroll is for me just out of range.

Rule 3: Supertoto
Cause I like to play the supertoto I also need a rule for this. When my bankroll is increasing I always want to bet more on the Supertoto than I should. Normally I will play with a 3,2€ ticket but in some situation I’m willing to take a higher risk. In these situation the following golden rule kicks in: A supertoto ticket may never cost more than 5% of my current bankroll, with a limit of 12,8€. Another Supertoto rule is that at least 75% of my supertoto tickets should be purchased before Wednesday midnight. This because Unibet gives a 10% discount. Suppose that I will play 40 tickets of 3,2€ and 75% of those tickets are purchased within the discount time frame, this would mean that I only will have to pay for 37 tickets. Sound like peanuts but every euro counts.

Well this is my way ahead. I hope the rules above will get me from going bankrupt and will bring me closer to my goal for 2009. It all depends on hit rate and ROI. After an analysis of my results in 2009 I can hopefully figure out what the best number of games in my combo bets are.

Good luck in 2009 and remember sportsbetting is still gambling. Do it with precautions!

Cheers,
Dremeber

No comments:

Predictions: Premier League Round 19, Jupiler Pro League Round 20

Here you can find the 1X2, BTTS, Over/Under and correct score predictions for round 19 of the Premier League and round 20 of the Jupiler Pro...