Really believe that the 1X2 market will color green for this round. For the moment the Championship play-offs are really strange with 5 draws out of 8 matches and even only 1 home win. Even compared to the previous Championship play-offs rounds, this way below average.
Below are the 8 bets which should do the trick for me:
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP4 | Gent | Oostende | 1X2 | 1 | 1,73 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Charleroi | Waregem | 1X2 | 1 | 1,98 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Kortrijk | Eupen | 1X2 | 1 | 2,28 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lierse | Waasland-Beveren | 1X2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lokeren | Roeselare | 1X2 | 1 | 4,8 | 2 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Mechelen | Standard | 1X2 | 1 | 2,75 | 2 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Anderlecht | Club Brugge | 1X2 | 1 | 2,08 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Genk | Mouscron | 1X2 | 1 | 1,33 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Due to value betting only 3 over/under 2.5 goals bets. The loss here at the moment is 1,29 units, meaning that all 3 should be correct. 2 out of 3 would at least mean green figures for round 2.
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP4 | Gent | Oostende | O/U | 1 | 2,1 | U | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lierse | Waasland-Beveren | O/U | 1 | 1,9 | U | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lokeren | Roeselare | O/U | 1 | 1,73 | O | 0 | -1 |
On the BTTS market the loss at the moment stands on 3,4 units. Personally I find this one of the toughest markets to beat. 8 picks for round 4. 4 or 5 out of 8 are needed for green figures for the round.
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP4 | Gent | Oostende | BTS | 1 | 2,1 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Charleroi | Waregem | BTS | 1 | 2 | J | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Kortrijk | Eupen | BTS | 1 | 1,73 | J | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lierse | Waasland-Beveren | BTS | 1 | 1,98 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lokeren | Roeselare | BTS | 1 | 2,1 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Mechelen | Standard | BTS | 1 | 2,08 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Anderlecht | Club Brugge | BTS | 1 | 2,04 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | St Truiden | Union | BTS | 1 | 1,79 | J | 0 | -1 |
Round 3 was the first round without any correct correct score predictions. Let's see if we do have more luck this round. All low scores, but the good things is that these are the most common football results.
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP4 | Gent | Oostende | CS | 1 | 8 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Charleroi | Waregem | CS | 1 | 7,5 | 1-1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Kortrijk | Eupen | CS | 1 | 6,75 | 1-1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lierse | Waasland-Beveren | CS | 1 | 8 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Lokeren | Roeselare | CS | 1 | 16 | 0-1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Mechelen | Standard | CS | 1 | 9,5 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Anderlecht | Club Brugge | CS | 1 | 8 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP4 | Genk | Mouscron | CS | 1 | 7,5 | 2-0 | 0 | -1 |
Leaves me with the 4 Acca's I will be playing. If the Poisson Model does predict the 4 BTTS acca correctly, I'm assured of at least one winning market at the end of the Play-off Rounds.
The 4 1X2 acca looks like this:
| Home | Away | Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 1X2 | Genk | Mouscron | 1 | 1,33 |
| Gent | Oostende | 1 | 1,73 | |
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge | 1 | 2,08 | |
| Lierse | Waasland-Beveren | 1 | 2 | |
| 9,57 |
The 4 BTTS acca looks like this:
| Home | Away | Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 BTTS | Charleroi | Waregem | J | 2 |
| Genk | Mouscron | N | 1,82 | |
| St Truiden | Union | J | 1,79 | |
| Lokeren | Roeselare | N | 2,1 | |
| 13,68 |
The 4 O/U 2.5 acca looks like this:
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 O/U | Gent | Oostende | U | 2,1 |
| Lokeren | Roeselare | O | 1,73 | |
| Mechelen | Standard | U | 1,9 | |
| Anderlecht | Club Brugge | U | 1,91 | |
| Total | 13,18 |
The Yankee Correct Score acca looks like this:
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS | Genk | Mouscron | 2-0 | 7,5 |
| Kortrijk | Eupen | 1-1 | 6,75 | |
| Gent | Oostende | 1-0 | 8 | |
| Charleroi | Waregem | 1-1 | 7,5 | |
| Total | 500,87 |
Good luck with betting, Dremeber
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