There were some strange results, but it should have been better.
Before I was surprised by the high number of no BTS and the high under 2.5 predictions but I'm still keeping the faith and did place the bet according to the Poisson model.
Also I'm looking to do some tweaks. Maybe the play-offs aren't the best competition format to go live with my Poisson Prediction model. So, I'm running again a new test run for the regular competition to see if it really should have delivered a profit in thee regular season.
Besides this I'm also running a test run for the Dutch Eredivisie, to see how the model performs there.
Due to the fact that I have build my model in excel, both test are really times consuming, but it has to be done! Planning a real website for both the Belgium Jupiler Pro League and the Dutch Eredivisie for the start of the new season. The down side will be that this will be in Dutch.
If both sides are covering their cost, I also will launch the same sites in English.
Below are the hard figures from last week:
| # Inzet | # Pay-out | P/L | ROI | # | G | F | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS | 8 | 0 | -8 | -100,00% | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0,00% |
| 1X2 | 8 | 7,72 | -0,28 | -3,50% | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37,50% |
| BTS | 7 | 3,61 | -3,39 | -48,43% | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28,57% |
| O/U | 5 | 3,63 | -1,37 | -27,40% | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40,00% |
| Yankee CS | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DEEL/0! | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DEEL/0! |
| 4 BTS | 1 | 0 | -1 | -100,00% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0,00% |
| 4 1X2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -100,00% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0,00% |
| 4 O/U | 1 | 0 | -1 | -100,00% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0,00% |
| 31 | 14,96 | -16,04 | -51,74% | 31 | 7 | 24 | 22,58% |
The total table still has one green line :)
| # Inzet | # Pay-out | P/L | ROI | # | G | F | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS | 20 | 16 | -4 | -20,00% | 20 | 2 | 18 | 10,00% |
| 1X2 | 23 | 14,71 | -8,29 | -36,04% | 23 | 6 | 17 | 26,09% |
| BTS | 16 | 12,6 | -3,4 | -21,25% | 16 | 7 | 9 | 43,75% |
| O/U | 15 | 13,71 | -1,29 | -8,60% | 15 | 7 | 8 | 46,67% |
| Yankee CS | 2,2 | 0 | -2,2 | -100,00% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0,00% |
| 4 BTS | 3 | 9,6 | 6,6 | 220,00% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33,33% |
| 4 1X2 | 3 | 0 | -3 | -100,00% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0,00% |
| 4 O/U | 3 | 0 | -3 | -100,00% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0,00% |
| 85,2 | 66,62 | -18,58 | -21,81% | 85 | 23 | 62 | 27,06% |
Cheers,
Dremeber
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