Results of the First Run of the Poisson Model



I did make a profit with the model. So that was good.
The only market where I didn’t produce a profit was the 1X2 market. To be honest I did expect this due to the big number of draws which were predicted.

The results in table format:

SP1

# Ante
# Pay-out
P/L
CS
6
7,5
1,5
1X2
7
5,5
-1,5
BTS
3
3,52
0,52
O/U
4
5,51
1,51

This reflects a total ROI of 10.15% and a profit of 2.03 units.

But I also did create four accumulators based on the proposed bets and handpicked bets. This way I’m looking for a betting scheme which can increase the profit (faster). Also I don’t have to look for value bets here, so I can use predictions which didn’t made the cut based on the value betting principle.

In this market acca I did very well. Only one winning ticket
The 4 BTTS acca tickets was a winner, good for a pay-out of 9.60 units.
The 4 O/U 2.5 acca failed on the match Lierse – Standard where I did predict an over.
The 1X2 was a disaster with only 2 out of 4 correct.
The CS Yankee is a shot in the dark and did produce only 1 correct out of 4.


SP1

# Ante
# Pay-out
P/L
Yankee CS
1,1
0
-1,1
4 BTS
1
9,6
8,6
4 1X2
1
0
-1
4 O/U
1
0
-1

Good enough for a profit of 5,5 units and a ROI of 134,15%.

Overall, the poisson model did result into a profit of 7.53 units and a ROI of 31.24%.
I would be happy if the result for matchday 2 of the Jupiler Pro League Play-offs would be in the same range.

I will try to post my predictions for the next round on Wednesday!

Cheers,
Dremeber

No comments:

Predictions: Premier League Round 19, Jupiler Pro League Round 20

Here you can find the 1X2, BTTS, Over/Under and correct score predictions for round 19 of the Premier League and round 20 of the Jupiler Pro...