Bankroll management: Superoto style

Bankroll management is utmost important. This speaks for itself. Bankroll management will not increase your chances of becoming a winning player but cannot be ignored. Your profit will not become higher, by using a suited bankroll management, but it should
decrease your overall loss, for sure in the darker periods of time.

Rarely people do start with a bankroll management when starting with gambling on sports.
I my opinion this is also impossible, cause I believe that bankroll management should be based on statistics. And not general statistics but your own statistics. Meaning that your bankroll management should be tweaked once in a while. Due to the fact that stats can change a lot in the beginning when recording them, bankroll management should be evaluated frequently. After some time, when you have enough stat it should be tweaked less often.

Due to the fact that my statistics are relatively limited in amount (only 27 bets), I decided to evaluate my bankroll management after each 5 bets, these are my bechmarks.
When I have recorded 50 bets, I will change this to every 10 bets. When I have recorded 100 bets I will benchmark my bankroll at the beginning of each month (which I think should be the minimum).

But how do you do bankroll management in combination with supertoto bets?
Firstly you need to understand that there is a (big) difference between betting on a sports toto than regular sports betting. In contrast to regular sports betting the percentage of winning bets are smaller, but the ROI should be/is higher.
This need to be kept in mind.

The bankroll management in this case can be better compared with the bankroll management of a poker player only playing tournaments than with a fellow sports bettor. Long loosing streaks are not uncommon in poker nor in playing on the supertoto or any kind of toto.
Your bankroll should be capable of surviving such a loosing streak(s).

In my opinion your bankroll management should be determined by your own statistics in combination with how much risk you are willing to take.
So my bankroll management isn't per se suitable for you, cause you can have much better statistics or are by nature a bigger gambler than me.

That’s why I did introduce 3 types of bankrolls for myself.
- Firstly I have my current bankroll, which is all the money in my Supertoto bank account;
- secondly I have my threshold bankroll, which is the money I need according to my statistic to survive a very dark period;
- and last but not least there is my playing bankroll, which is the general bankroll decreased with the threshold bankroll.

How did I determine my threshold bankroll?
First let's take a look at my biggest loosing streak so far (my darkest period as I like to call it). My darkest period lasted for 13 supertotos until it was broken by my second biggest win ever.
During this loosing streak I did loose 54,4 euros. So my threshold bankroll always should be capable of sustaining such a loosing streak again.

In general my average wager per coupon for this year is 4,48 euros, let’s round this to 4,50 euros.
I always want to have 15 more shots at the jackpot when my playing bankroll dried out. Meaning that my threshold bankroll is 15 times 4,50 = 67,5 euros.
I believe that with this amount I will give myself a decent chance of turning the tides and creating a new playing bankroll.

My playing bankroll
The determination of my playing bankroll is quit simple. It is my current bankroll decreased with my threshold bankroll.
Playing bankroll = current bankroll - 67,5 euros.
So the actual bankroll management should take place on this playing bankroll.

My golden rule is that one bet never may be higher than 15% of my playing bankroll at the moment of evaluating my playing bankroll.
Maximum bet = 15% of the playing bankroll at benchmark time.

This way my risk management is determined by my playing bankroll and not by the mental state at the moment of placing the bet. It also allows myself to take more risks if the playing bankroll is higher.

The bankroll management
The real bankroll management starts when I need to need to use my threshold bankroll before the next benchmark is reached. So once when my playing bankroll is smaller than my threshold bankroll + 5 * average ante. If I switch my benchmarks to monthly benchmarks I need to re-evaluate this number 5.
From that moment on it is simple. The maximum allowed bet is 15% of the current bankroll (at the moment of the benchmark) with a minimum of 0,8 euros (allowing myself 3 halve-hedges). Statistically I should make a profit with 15 bets.

Benchmark moments
As stated in the beginning I introduce benchmark moments in my bankroll management.
Each time when such a benchmark moment occurs the threshold bankroll and playing bankroll will be recalculated.

This way a new record in loosing streaks is taking into account with the calculation of the threshold bankroll, which should increase.
Also if I do take more risks due to the fact that my playing bankroll has increased, this will increase the threshold bankroll, cause it is based on the average ante.

Cashing in
Bankroll management does not only means that it puts restrictions on your bets it also should dictate the moment when you have to cash and preferably also the amount you should cash.

By cashing in I mean to withdraw money out of the current bankroll to an overall gambling account or the bank account.

How higher your bankroll is, the more appealing it is to take more risks. This can result placing higher bets or by placing bets out of your field of expertise.

I will cash in at a benchmark moment, if my playing bankroll covers more than 35 average bets.
So if 35 times average ante is higher than my playing bankroll I will cash in.
The amount I will cash-in will be flexible but will always be at least the amount of the determined threshold bankroll but may be more. After cashing in, the playing bankroll should cover at least 15 times the average bet. And the benchmark should be re-calculated. Within this recalculation the cash-in variable is ignored.

Some examples:

Cause an example says more than 50 words:
At the moment my current bankroll is 114 euros.
My average ante = 4,5
My biggest loosing streak = 13

This give as bankroll management until the next benchmark:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = 46,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 6,97 euros (playing bankroll *0,15)
- Cashing in = N

Suppose that my current bankroll would be 50 euros than it would be as followed:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = -17,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 3,33 euros (current bankroll / 15)
- Cashing in = N

Suppose that the current bankroll would be 250 euros:
- Threshold bankroll = 67,5 euros
- Playing bankroll = 182,5 euros
- Maximum allowed bet = 27,38 euros (playing bankroll *0,15)
- Cashing in = J
- Minimal amount to be cashed = 67,5 euros

If you reach this part I wan't to thank you for your time, to at least read the complete post

1 comment:

online bookmaker said...

Thanks for the advise people usually don't control themselves and it can turn really bad.

The best crypto sportsbetting book of the moment !