At the moment the Poisson model is running a little bit behind. Mainly caused by the 1X2 bets. Don't know what the problem is there. I decided to continue to play them, to have a complete historical record for next years play-offs.
I would be nice to score another Acca. I did hope on 3 acca's, so one to go.
As always all my bets are placed at:
My 1X2 tips and bets for this round:
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP7 | Charleroi | Club Brugge | 1X2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | G | 2 | 1 |
| SP7 | Mechelen | Waasland-Beveren | 1X2 | 1 | 1,5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Kortrijk | Roeselare | 1X2 | 1 | 1,76 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lokeren | Mouscron | 1X2 | 1 | 1,85 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | St Truiden | Standard | 1X2 | 1 | 3,5 | X | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Oostende | Gent | 1X2 | 1 | 3,45 | X | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Anderlecht | Waregem | 1X2 | 1 | 1,28 | 1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Genk | Eupen | 1X2 | 1 | 1,28 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
The Over/Under market stand on a small profit for the moment, let's continue this momentum.
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP7 | Mechelen | Waasland-Beveren | O/U | 1 | 2,08 | U | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Kortrijk | Roeselare | O/U | 1 | 1,48 | O | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lierse | Union | O/U | 1 | 1,94 | O | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lokeren | Mouscron | O/U | 1 | 2,25 | U | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | St Truiden | Standard | O/U | 1 | 1,83 | O | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Anderlecht | Waregem | O/U | 1 | 2,75 | U | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Genk | Eupen | O/U | 1 | 1,38 | O | 0 | -1 |
The BTTS market is running on the other hand a little bit behind. These bets should bring green figures to this market:
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP7 | Charleroi | Club Brugge | BTTS | 1 | 2,02 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Mechelen | Waasland-Beveren | BTTS | 1 | 1,88 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lierse | Union | BTTS | 1 | 2,02 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lokeren | Mouscron | BTTS | 1 | 2,25 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Oostende | Gent | BTTS | 1 | 2,05 | N | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Genk | Eupen | BTTS | 1 | 2,12 | N | 0 | -1 |
My bets market at the moment, the correct score bets. At the moment delivering a profit of 4 units, good for a ROI of 8,7%.
| Round | Home | Away | Type | Ante | Odds | Bet | Result | G/F | Pay-out | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP7 | Charleroi | Club Brugge | CS | 1 | 9 | 0-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Mechelen | Waasland-Beveren | CS | 1 | 7,5 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Kortrijk | Roeselare | CS | 1 | 8,5 | 1-1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lokeren | Mouscron | CS | 1 | 9,5 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | St Truiden | Standard | CS | 1 | 7 | 1-1 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Oostende | Gent | CS | 1 | 10 | 1-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Anderlecht | Waregem | CS | 1 | 8 | 2-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Genk | Eupen | CS | 1 | 9 | 2-0 | 0 | -1 | ||
| SP7 | Lierse | Union | CS | 1 | 11,5 | 0-1 | 0 | -1 |
Last but not least my Acca's. After a good start, this betting market is also getting behind. One more correct will probably make it a winning market for the complete play-offs.
My 1X2 acca looks like this:
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 1X2 | Genk | Eupen | 1 | 1,28 |
| Charleroi | Club Brugge | 2 | 2 | |
| Kortrijk | Roeselare | 1 | 1,74 | |
| Mechelen | Waasland | 1 | 1,5 | |
| Total | 6,68 |
My BTTS Acca is the following:
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 BTTS | St Truiden | Standard | J | 1,64 |
| Mechelen | Waasland | N | 1,88 | |
| Lokeren | Mouscron | N | 2,25 | |
| Genk | Eupen | N | 2,12 | |
| Total | 14,71 | |||
The O/U acca:
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 O/U | Lierse | Union | O | 1,94 |
| Kortrijk | Roeselare | O | 1,48 | |
| Charleroi | Club Brugge | U | 1,84 | |
| St Truiden | Standard | O | 1,83 | |
| Total | 9,67 |
Last but not least the Correct score Yankee, with a potential profit of 715 units :).
| Home | Away | Prediction | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS | Genk | Eupen | 2-0 | 9 |
| St Truiden | Standard | 1-1 | 7 | |
| Anderlecht | Waregem | 2-0 | 8 | |
| Charleroi | Club Brugge | 0-0 | 9 | |
| Total | 716,6 |
The test run of the Poisson model for the Dutch Eredivisie is almost done. If ready in time I will post the predictions according to the new model. I probably will not bet on it.
Good luck,
Dremeber
