Last weekend there was a small loss, due to the (for me) unexpected loss of AZ and ….
5 out of 7 correct, but even with single bets I would have made a loss.
All competition are now in the final phase, in some countries the champion is already know in others 2 or more teams are still in the running for the title.
My picks for this weekend:
Belgium:3 match days to go. It is exciting at the top and at the bottom of the league. At the top Genk has a very difficult away game at Lokeren, who still needs points to be mathematical sure, Anderlecht should have an easy home game against Beveren. Still due to these facts I don’t feel confident about this game to place a bet on them. There is just to much at stake.
GBA (8) – Cercle Brugge (14) (1.80, 3.40, 4.25)
Both teams only play for the pride and money. For this match I favour GBA, cause they play at home. At home GBA always tries to dominate the game and a lot of team have problems with this unBelgian play style. A good team can profit from this, but I don\t see Cercle winning this. GBA will score at least twice, while Cercle rarely scores away from home.
Bundesliga3 teams are still in the running for the title. Schalke (@ home against Nurnberg), VFB Stutgart (@ home against FSV Mainz 05) and Werder Bremen (away @ Hertha). Only 2 points separate these teams. Werder has the disadvantage that it has played in the Uefa Cup last Thursday, which consumed a lot of physical and mental energy.
VFB Stuttgart (2) – FSV Mainz 05(17) (1.38, 4.00, 9.75)
Mainz still has a chance to avoid relegation but then they need to win @ Stuttgart and I don’t see this happen. Stuttgart dreams of a new title and cannot afford a defeat at home against a relegation campaign. My money will be on Stuttgart.
Premier LeagueWhile nothing is sure in Football, Manchester U has 95% chance to win the title. At the bottom 4 teams are trying to avoid relegation. Further more there is the battle between Liverpool and Arsenal for the last direct CL ticket. Liverpool has 2 chances, one via the Premier League and the other one can be won in the CL final against Ac Milan.
Reading (6) – Watford (20) (1.45, 3.85, 8.00)
Watford is already relegated, while Reading is currently standing at a Uefa Cup place. Before the season only few fools would have placed a bet that Reading currently would be standing 6th. But they are playing nice and attractive football. With the home crowd behind them, they should be capable of winning against Watford with big numbers.
FranceWith 4 more match days to go, the champion is known. But still some existing battles for the second place and a direct ticket to the CL. There is only a gap of 3 points between number 2 and number 5. While is not mathematical yet, Nantes can not avoid relegation any more. The same fate for Sedan. The question is which team will join them in the La Ligue 2. Probably Troyes but Nice and Valenciennes are still in the danger zone.
Le Mans (14) – Nantes (20) (1.80, 3.25, 4.65)
Nantes had a revival after the winter break and transfer season but now all magic is gone. They play as they have given up the fight. Le Mans will be mathematical safe with a victory so my money is on Le Mans.
Seri AI find this the strangest major competition of all of Europe. Don’t know why and if I knew I probably I could not undermine it. Probably still the remainder of the old Catenacio play style.
Torino (17) – Acsoli (20) (1.22, 5.50, 14.00)
Torino needs the points to prolong their stay in the Seri A. Ascoli already knows that next season they will be playing in the Seri B. Not a surprise if you can win only 3 games out of 34. For Torino this is an ideal chance to take the three points and climb some places into the more safe spots.
Lazio Roma (4) – Livorno (12) (1.50, 3.55, 8.00)
Lazio still has a chance on a direct CL ticket. With in the back of the mind that AC Milan played last Wednesday a crucial CL game and has a difficult home game against Fiorentina, there is a rather big possibility that they can pass AC Milan this weekend. Condition number 1 is that they win themselves at home against Livorno. But I see this happen.
La Primera DivisionStill 6 match days to go here and at the top of the league nothing is decided yet. Probably Barcelona, Sevilla FC and Real Madrid will take the CL tickets. After this weekend Real Madrid or Sevilla probably will see their title chances decrease a lot. Both face each other @ Real. A draw means probably that Barca will see their lead extended to 3 points. Valencia and Zaragoza are battling for the preliminary rounds of the CL. At the bottom Gimnastic will relegate. 4 other teams are battling to avoid the 2 other relegation places.
Real Sociedad (19) -
Barcelona (1) (6.25, 3.75, 1.55)
Not a gift for Sociedad to face Barcelona, which cannot afford a misstep at this moment of the competition. If Barcelona wins they will increase their lead on at least one of the 2 other competitors for the title. So no doubt, Barca will win.
Levante (18) – Gimnastic (20) (1.75, 3.35, 4.90)
A real relegation match. Gimnastic, if they win, can keep their dreams a live. Levante on the other side can take a decent distance from Real Sociedad (if they loose as predicted). If predict that Levante will win based on the home advantage and the fact that they still have real possibilities to stay in La Primera Division.
Okay the matches are selected, now let’s make some winning combinations.
Cause my intention is to bet only 3€ I will make one double and 2 trixies.
Combo 1: Reading, GBA and Stuttgart -> 3.60€
Combo 2: Barcelona, Lazio Roma and Le Mans -> 4.18€
Combo 3: Levante and Torino -> 2.14€
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Good Luck,
Dremeber
