TDF part 2: The green jersey!

Part 2 of the TDF preview. Today we will be looking at the potential winners of the green jersey.
First let’s take a look at the odds for the main players. This time in stead of 5, 7 contenders. At the moment it is still not sure if Tom Boonen is allowed to participate, Tuesday we will now more.


Look always, the odds come from Unibet.
Cavendish (Team Columbia) – 2.00
Freire (Rabobank) – 4.50
Bennati (Liquigas) – 6.00
Boonen (Quickstep) – 7.00
Hushovd (Cervelo) – 8.00
Haussler (Cervelo) – 22.00
Napolitano (Katuska)– 25.00

Cavendish:
At the moment probably the fastest sprinter based on pure speed and power. He also has learned to hang in there on small climbs. The best prove of this is his victory in Milan San Remo.
But he has never finished in Paris in the past 2 tours. Also, he is probably the lesser climber of all sprinters which can be dangerous.
On the positive side the course fits him like a glove with probably 5 or 6 bunch sprints. Don’t be surprised if he takes down at least 4 of them. (15 victories this year.)

Freire:
He is always there when a bunch sprint takes place. Maybe he doesn’t posses the pure speed to beat Cavendish, but there are 1 or 2 stages where he probably will take points for the jersey, while Cavendish is struggling to stay at the bunch. The finish in Barcelona is such a classic example. 2 victories this year.


Bennati:
He really wants that green jersey but that’s not enough. He is fast enough and is one of the sprinters who were capable of beating Cavendish. Maybe he can do this again this TDF. He also will have no problem getting through the high mountains. The problem is that he did have some health problems in the past year and probably didn’t have an excellent preparation for this years Tour. 3 victories this year.

Boonen:
It all will depend on the verdict of the French Supreme Court. If he is allowed to start he probably wants to prove what he can. But in pure speed he can’t overpower Cavendish. On the other hand he proved last Sunday that he is ready by winning, for the first time, the Belgian Championship. 4 victories this year.



Hushovd:
Certitude for the green jersey. Almost always ending in the top5 when it comes down to a bunch sprint and that’s how you win the jersey. Last year he ended second place but Freire has the course advantage. He also has a great lead out with Haussler but that also can be his disadvantage if he fails to get a decent result in the first 2 sprints. He can do it, but I don’t expect him to win the jersey. 4 victories this year.

Haussler:
The lead out for Cavendish but is for sure fast enough to win a bunch sprint if Cavendish is not available. He will only get chances when Hushovd fails or crashes. 4 victories this year.




Napolitano:
A real pure sprinter. Didn’t expect to go to the Tour this year but Steegmans didn’t sign the doping charter of the team. So Katuska did not select Steegmans and gave Napolitano the chance. He will end some times in the top 5 but I don’t see him winning a race or the green jersey. Just like Haussler don’t throw your money away. 3 victories this year.

My verdict:
If we are honest and look at the profile of the stages, there could only one big favorite for the green jersey and that’s mark Cavendish. But betting wise the odds are maybe to low for a 3 week race where a lot can happen. He will need to score a lot of points during the 4 potential bunch sprints because the high mountains will come soon this year. Maybe it is not the question if he survives them but how much energy will cost it to survive them. The best bet looks to be Freire or Hushovd. My money is on both of them.

Success,
Dremeber

Who will win the Tour de France 2009?

In the next week we will prepare ourselves for the Tour de France.
In this part we will focus on the potential winners and their odds. I will also try to explain why a rider can win it or why not.

The biggest problem is the length of the tour de France. It lasts 3 weeks in which a lot can happen (sickness, falls, etc…). Also we may not underestimate the doping ghost!

In all my posts I’m using the odds of Unibet.

First let’s take a look at the top5.
Contador (Astana) – 1,85
Armstrong (Astana) – 4,50
Schleck A. (Saxo) – 9,00
Evans (Silence – Lotto) – 13,00
Menchov (Rabobank) – 16,00

Contador
Why will he win?
At the moment he is maybe the talented rider of the pack. Winning 2 years ago. Last year due to the team doping policy his team was not allowed to participate at the Tour.
He is riding for the best team and probably he of one of his teammates will take yellow after the team time trial. If so it will be though to get him out of the yellow.
Another reason why he will win is that the combined total of kilometer against the clock (not including the team time trial) is reduced to 56 km. I consider for instance Evans and Armstrong better riders against the clock.

Why not?
At Astana he leads the team, but there are also others in the team, who already have won the tour of finished in the top 5. So, it is not sure that if he is having a bad day, the complete team will help him, because others will go for their own chances.
Armstrong will ride a better a better opening time trial and therefore will have a bonus on Contador.

Armstrong
Why will he win?
Well it is simple; he won his last 7 tours. (Still incredible)
He is a better rider against the clock than Contador. He is one of the best friends of Johan Bruyneel. He did ride the Giro as preparation and was getting better and better by the day. And last but not least he has the most tour experience of them all.

Why not?
His preparation was disturbed by a big crash, breaking his collar bone.
He is already 38 years old. If he wins, he will be the oldest rider to win the tour.
He is not the number one in the team, which is Contador.
He was out of competition for 3 years!

Schleck A.
Why will he win?
Well to be honest I don’t see Andy Schleck winning the tour. I do see him within the top 5. He did great last year, winning the white jersey and ending in 12th place overall. He could however profit from Cancellara in the TTT.
Probably he will win the Tour de France eventually, but I don’t expect it to be this year. Maybe in 2011.

Why not?
There are not enough finishes on the top of the mountains. Only 3.
He is a good time rider but not good enough.

Evans
Why will he win?
He is in good shape and after so many places this could his year. A good example of this is that he did beat Contador in the Dauphine.
No question about it, every one within the team has to ride for Cadel.

Why not?
His team. Pff, such a good rider but almost always alone in the mountains. Also he will loose a lot of time in the TTT. Probably too much to make up.

Menchov
Why will he won?
He did win the Giro so he is in good shape.

Why not?
He did win the Giro
Just like Evans he will loose time in the TTT.
He is not an attacking rider and will have to do this to capture the yellow jersey after the TTT.

My verdict:
Everybody thinks that Contador will win the Tour (look at the odds), but I think that there is bigger chance that he won’t. Better value bets will be Evans of even A. Schleck.
My buck will be one Evans, with a return of 13 to 1.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Hibernation?

Well this blog goes into hibernation once more. Why?
Well it is simple, at the moment I'm not placing any bets anymore. Had a bad streak and decided to sit it out without continuing to loose money. So I did withdraw all my money from my online bookie. I was probably to focused on winning money and did loose the fun part.
And like I said before sportsbetting is a hobby for me. So it should be fun. The winning money part is just an extra bonus.

I'm still playing on OLBG. Hey I even did win a price last month. I became third in the Football Pro Tipster league, good for 25 GBP. Not much but free money.

Besides OLBG, I did start to play poker again. No rules, just having fun. You can read about my adventures on Learning Texas Holdem Poker.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Looking forward to 2009

Normally people first look back at the previous year and afterward look forward to the next, well I will do it differently. Let’s take a look at my betting year 2009.

The start:
First we have to determine a starting bankroll for next year. At the moment I have a bankroll of 198€. Let’s be honest this is a dull figure to start with. So there are 2 options left (not a third cause a deposit is ruled out.
- Option 1: I will play some more bets this year hoping that my bankroll goes above 200. Not very likely cause there no more football games this year in the major European competitions.
- Option 2: I will bank some of my profit and start with a bankroll of 150€.

I will go for option number 2 for 2 reasons.
Reason 1: This would mean that I would have banked 100 euros in 2008, which is satisfying knowingly that I started with a miserable 50€ and reason number 2 is that this bankroll isn’t high enough to start taking to much risk but big enough to give a comfortable feeling. Everybody has it own comfort zone and 150 certainly is within mine.

The goals:
Well the absolute goal is to have fun and to give watching sports something extra. Another obvious goal is to make some profit. My first idea was to aim for an average profit of 25€ per month. But that would bring my total bankroll on 450€. So a better aim would be an ending bankroll of 500€ , which indicates an average profit of 29,16€ per month. Seems feasible to me but time will tell if it indeed was/is. But as long as my ending bankroll of 2009 is above my starting bankroll, the year will be a success.
A non related bankroll goal is that I should keeping track of statistics. And maybe extend it with a Supertoto part.

My betting rules for 2009:
I think that is is important to have some betting rules in place, where you should stick. Otherwise it is very easy to loose a lot of money when lady luck is against you. For me the next simple rules will go into order from January the 1^st 2009.

Rule 1: Combos
In general all my combination bets will have an ante of 1€. I have been playing with the idea to increase this but never executed these plans. I strongly believe in combination betting but not in increasing the ante for this betting type. In general a combination bet may never have an ante of more than 1% of your bankroll. The Risk of Ruin is simply to high for this betting type. Certainly in footballs 1x2 bets.

Rule 2: Single bets.
The golden rule for me will be that a single bet may not be higher than 5% of my bankroll. This rule is in place to prevent myself from panic betting. Once in a time taking a risk is not a problem, but an impulsive bet with an ante of higher than 5% of my bankroll is for me just out of range.

Rule 3: Supertoto
Cause I like to play the supertoto I also need a rule for this. When my bankroll is increasing I always want to bet more on the Supertoto than I should. Normally I will play with a 3,2€ ticket but in some situation I’m willing to take a higher risk. In these situation the following golden rule kicks in: A supertoto ticket may never cost more than 5% of my current bankroll, with a limit of 12,8€. Another Supertoto rule is that at least 75% of my supertoto tickets should be purchased before Wednesday midnight. This because Unibet gives a 10% discount. Suppose that I will play 40 tickets of 3,2€ and 75% of those tickets are purchased within the discount time frame, this would mean that I only will have to pay for 37 tickets. Sound like peanuts but every euro counts.

Well this is my way ahead. I hope the rules above will get me from going bankrupt and will bring me closer to my goal for 2009. It all depends on hit rate and ROI. After an analysis of my results in 2009 I can hopefully figure out what the best number of games in my combo bets are.

Good luck in 2009 and remember sportsbetting is still gambling. Do it with precautions!

Cheers,
Dremeber

Merry X-mas