Bets for match day 3!

Hoping on the first winning ticket of the season!

Bet type	Game	Pred.	Result	Odds	C. Odds
JLP8 1X2	KRC Genk - Lokeren	12		1,3	25,15
	KV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk	1x		1,31
	Lierse - Moeskroen	1		2,35
	Waasland - Westerlo	x2		1,45
	Cercle Brugge - KV Oostende	1		2,15
	Standard - AA Gent	12		1,24
	Anderlecht - Charlerloi	1		1,28
	Zulte Waregem - Club Brugge	12		1,27
JPL5 R	Lierse - Moeskroen	BTS		1,86	13,11
	KV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk	O 2.5		1,86
	Anderlecht - Charlerloi	CSH		1,86
	Waasland - Westerlo	HTS		1,25
	Zulte Waregem - Club Brugge	BTS		1,6
JPL CS	KV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk	1-1		7	7
JPL2 SP	KV Mechelen - KV Kortrijk	Hanni		4,6	8,88
	Anderlecht - Charlerloi	Mitrovic		1,93
JPL2 CS	Cercle Brugge - KV Oostende	2-0		10,5	210
	Lierse - Moeskroen	3-1		20

Good luck,
Dremeber

Recap: Match day2

Again no winning ticket. Have to remind myself that it is a marathon and not a 100 meter dash.

JLP8 1X2: 2 wrong. The first one is my own fault. Originally I did put a 1X on Genk - Cercle, but changed it into 1 to increase the odds. A stupid beginner mistake. The victory of Westerlo at Charlerloi was a complete surprise to me. It is the first time since the new competition format that a promoted team wins its first 2 matches. (avg odds.  19.94)

JPL5 R: Just like the first match day one wrong. This time it was the over 2.5 bet for Oostende - Anderlecht. Still I have faith in this betting type. (Avg odds 4.15)

JPL CS: At half time my correct score prediction was spot on, but Westerlo decided to score 2 extra :(. (avg. odds: 9.5)

JPL 2 SP: Due to the fact that Suarez didn't start the game the odds were decreased to 2,38. While Mboyo gave an assist, he didn't netted one. (Avg Odds: 6.74)

JPL 2 CS: This one is just a lottery. Hope that I can win one of these this season. (Avg odds: 59.62)

Stats JPL so far:

Home win: 10 (62.5%)

Draw: 2 (12.5%)

Away win: 4 (25%)

Home team scores: 13 (81.25%)

Away team scores: 9 (56.26%)

Both team score: 7 (43.75%)

No goal: 1 (6.25%)

O 0.5: 15 (93.75%)

O 1.5: 12 (75%)

O 2.5: 7 (43.75%)

O 3.5: 5 (31.25%)

Most frequent scores:

1-0: 3 (18.75%)

3-1: 3 (18.75%)

0-2: 2 (12.5%)

2-0: 2 (12.5%)

2-3: 2 (12.5%)

Good luck,

Dremeber

Matchday 2 bets Jupiler Pro League

Homework for match day 2 is ready. Here are my bets!

Bet type	Game	Pred.	Result	Odds	C. Odds
JLP8 1X2	Oostende - Anderlecht	2		1,62	15,24
	Kortrijk - Standard	12		1,3
	KRC Genk - Cercle Brugge	1		1,52
	Moeskroen - Waasland	1		1,9
	Charlerloi - Westerlo	1X		1,35
	Lokeren - Zulte Waregem	12		1,29
	Club Brugge - Lierse	1		1,23
	AA Gent - KV Mechelen	1X		1,17
JPL5 R	Charlerloi - Westerlo	HTS		1,25	4,15
	AA Gent - KV Mechelen	HWH		1,34
	Lokeren - Zulte Waregem	HTS		1,21
	Oostende - Anderlecht	O 2.5		1,72
	Moeskroen - Waasland	HTS		1,19
JPL CS	Charlerloi - Westerlo	2-1		10
JPL2 SP	KRC Genk - Cercle Brugge	Mboyo	2,38	6,43
	Oostende - Anderlecht	Suarez	2,7
JPL2 CS	Moeskroen - Waasland	1-1	7	47,25
	Club Brugge - Lierse	2-0	6,75

Match day 1: Recap

No winning tickets :(. But I'm proud that I did show some discipline.

JPL8 1X2: I really did underestimate the power of the first home game of a team that promoted. A real surprise to me. Still 29 match days to go, to reach my goal of 4 winning tickets in this betting type.

JPL5 R: Only one incorrect. KAA Gent didn't manage to find the net. I wasn't sure that Gent would win this away game but based on the pre-season matches I did expect at least one goal. But just like the JPL8 1x2 betting type, still 29 rounds to go, to achieve my goal.

JPL CS: Some bad bet from my side. I know that with my betting plan I will have some overlap of matches spread over the tickets and I do know that this one of the more difficult betting types but I should have bet with the correct score on this game.

JPL2 CS: I have to be honest, this is more a lottery than educated betting. No of the 2 correct scores correct! Lokeren even lost the game, but the ticket was already worth less after the 3-0 victory of Standard.

JPL2 SP: While Standard won 3-0 not a great display of Ezekiel. Probably to much thinking about a transfer than interested in playing a game. Castillo on the other hand did what I expected. Also here 29 round to go, to make a conclusion.

Stats about the JPL so far:
Home wins: 6 (75%)    (Overall: 47,11%)
Draws: 1 (12,5 %)     (Overall: 24,96%)
Away wins: 1 (12,5 %) (Overall: 27,93%)

Home team scores: 6 (75%)   (Overall: 78,61%)
Away team scores: 3 (37,5%) (Overall: 68,00%)
Both team scores: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 53,40%)

No goals: 1 (12,5%)         (Overall:  6,79%)
Over 0.5 goals: 7 (87,5%)   (Overall: 93,21%)
Over 1.5 goals: 6 (75%)     (Overall: 77,33%)
Over 2.5 goals: 3 (37,5%)   (Overall: 50,59%)
Over 3.5 goals: 2 (25%)     (Overall: 31,07%)

Most frequent scores:
2-0: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 9,25%)
3-1: 2 (25%)   (Overall: 5,85%)
0-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 6,79%)
1-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 9,50%)
3-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 3,48%)
2-0: 1 (12,5%) (Overall: 9,25%)

Up to match day 2!

Good luck,
Dremeber

Matchday 1: Jupiler Pro League Betting plan

My bets for matchday 1!!

Bet type	Game	Pred.	Result	Odds	C. Odds
JLP8 1X2	Standard - Charlerloi	1		1,37	24,64
	Waasland - Club Brugge	2		1,8
	Cercle Brugge - AA Gent	X2		1,24
	Lierse SK - KV Oostende	12		1,31
	Westerlo - Sp. Lokeren	2		2,15
	KV Mechelen - KRC Genk	12		1,31
	Anderlecht - Moeskroen	1		1,2
	Zulte Waregem - KV Kortrijk	1		1,82
JPL5 R	KV Mechelen - KRC Genk	BTS		1,65	4,16
	Anderlecht - Moeskroen	O 2.5		1,56
	Cercle Brugge - AA Gent	ATS		1,18
	Standard - Charlerloi	HWH		1,19
	Waasland - Club Brugge	ATS		1,15
JPL CS	Cercle Brugge - AA Gent	1-2		9	9
JPL2 SP	Standard - Charlerloi	2-0		8	72
	Westerlo - Sp. Lokeren	1-2		9
JPL2 CS	Standard - Charlerloi	Ezekiel		2,35	7,05
	Waasland - Club Brugge	Castillo		3

BTS: Both teams score
ATS: Away team scores
HWH: Home team wins at least one half

Good luck,
Dremeber

A new season, a new start!

A new start!!!

Yep, we are going to give it another shot. This time I will try to focus only on
Belgium's Jupiler Pro League.Why? It is the competition I know best.
Besides this I will of course play the supertoto.

Last week I did fund my Unibet account and already had a nice ticket on the 
supertoto, paying out just above 160 Euro. Giving me enough funds to fund my 
game plan for this season.

The idea is the following.
Per match day I will play 5 1 euro bets on the Jupiler Pro League (JPL).
So 30 matches, 5 bets per match day, will result in a total ante of 150 euros.
The 5 bets will have a predefined set-up.
Bet 1: Combo
Bet 2: 1 correct score
Bet 3: Random 5 bet combo
Bet 4: Combo 2 correct scores
Bet 5: 2 scoring players (if offered)

Some explanations:
Bet 1 will be a combo on the all the matches. I will not only go for the regular 
1 X 2, but will also include 1X, 2X of 12 on this combo to improve my winning 
changes. I hope that the average odds will be around 14 Euro. Winning 4 of 5 
of these will result in a profit for the bet type.

Bet 2 is a plain correct score bet. I did some analyse on this one, which I 
will post later. Average odds will be around 7 Euro. Meaning that 5 winning bets 
would seal the deal this type of betting. Should be possible.

Bet 3 consist of 5 combo bets. Bets included can be clean sheet, home teams 
scores, away teams scores, both team score, over and under bets and other types 
of bets. This bet type will probable have the lowest average odds. My estimation 
is that 6 or 7 should make it profitable.

Bet 4 is the dark horse within the betting type. I will combine 2 correct scores 
on this slip. This bet type will have the highest average odds. Even so high that 
probably 1 winning ticket should mean a profit for the bet type.

Bet 5 (if offered) would be combining two scoring players. No idea if this will 
be offered within Belgium (we only have a few legalized bookmakers). At the moment
of writing Unibet isn't offering it, nor BWIN, bingoal, e-lotto or others. If not
offered within 3 match days, I will see if I convert the bet type, to another 
set-up of if I'm going to play only 4 bets per week.

So this plan is set, now comes the difficult part! Sticking to it!!!!
Per betting type, there is also an algorithm to increase the stakes. If the profit 
for a betting type exceeds the increased stake for the rest of the season than 
the current stake will be increased by 1.
For example: after match day 10, the profit for bet type 1 is 62 euros and the 
current stake is 1, than the algorithm would be as followed: 62 > 10 + 40. 
In stead of 30 euro for the regular season, the combined stake would be 50 euros
 but due to the fact that the profit already exceeds this I'm still assured of a 
profit for the betting type.

On the other side I will keep playing the supertoto. Here I do only have a 
restriction, max 2 tickets running and no ticket may exceed 6.40 euros. 1 other
 big win, should secure the profit for this. Don't forget that I'm already 
having a profit of 145,72 euros on the supertoto for this betting run.

Of course I will keep statistics on these bets and will try to post them on a 
regular basis.

Keep in mind that sports betting should be fun, only a few of us can make a
 profit and even less can make it living out of it.

Cheers,
Dremeber

Tickets I'm proud of!